Central Florida:
Truck-loaded DAP was posted at $785/st FOB for loading in Central Florida, unmoved from one week earlier. MAP was also unchanged at $785/st FOB. The North Florida MAP truck market continued to be posted at $780/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf:
Despite a slow week of trading at NOLA, nearby DAP and MAP barges were seen holding their value.
Domestically produced barges loading in December and January kicked off the Dec. 10-16 trading week at $745/st FOB before firming to $750/st FOB on Dec. 13, sources said. Import tons were generally heard at $740/st FOB for both sales and offers, with bidding reported at $735-$740/st FOB on Dec. 16.
MAP barges continued to see offers at a $765/st FOB top, unmoved from the prior report, with most citing a $755/st FOB low on imports, equal to the week-ago floor. A rumored $750/st FOB barge remained unconfirmed on Dec. 16.
Based on limited trading, DAP barge pricing was quoted in the $740-$750/st FOB range, unchanged from prior-week levels. NOLA MAP barges also rolled over, sources reported, maintaining their week-ago $755-$765/st FOB value.
U.S. Imports:
Imports of DAP were down 31.2 percent in October, to 98,149 st from the prior-year 142,647 st. July-October totals firmed 94.1 percent, however, to 589,738 st from the year-ago 303,893 st.
Australia continued to lead DAP imports with 179,212 st in the July-October window, a 117.0 percent rise from the year-ago 82,585 st. Saudi Arabia followed at 129,740 st, a 52.5 percent increase from 85,087 st last year. Material originating from Jordan totaled 103,630 st for the period, up 198.3 percent from 34,737 st in the prior year.
October MAP/Other imports totaled 32,744 st, off 76.2 percent from the year-ago 137,309 st. July-October volumes were reported at 303,761 st, however, a 48.4 percent increase from last year’s 204,649 st.
Despite registering minimal new import volumes in October, nontraditional MAP sources continued to top the MAP/Other landscape through the fertilizer year to-date. Tunisia led importers with 81,522 st, followed by 63,882 st from Saudi Arabia, a 79.6 percent increase from the year-ago 35,563 st. Jordan added 50,368 st, followed by Russia at 41,017 st, a 14.5 percent decline from Russia’s 47,992 st total during the same period last year.
U.S. Exports:
DAP exports in October were down 53.2 percent, to 48,775 st from the prior-year 104,258 st. Exports were reported at 162,795 st for July-October, off 47.9 percent from the year-ago 312,411 st.
MAP/Other exports were down18.4 percent in October, to 155,417 st from the prior-year 190,447 st. July-October exports were down 7.9 percent, to 719,796 st from 781,431 st.
With no new sales reported for the week, the U.S. Gulf export phosphate markets remained unchanged at $810/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP pricing was quoted at $775-$785/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, reflecting a narrower range from last report, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati. MAP was pegged at $795-$815/st FOB in the region, with the low at Cincinnati and the high reported in the Illinois market on a spot basis.
Western Cornbelt:
The DAP market was pegged at $770-$785/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. MAP remained at $800-$820/st FOB in the region, depending on location, with the low at St. Louis and the high in Iowa on a spot basis.
The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., market was quoted at $775-$785/st FOB for DAP and $810-$825/st FOB for MAP. St. Paul pricing in mid-December was reported at $780-$790/st FOB for DAP and $810-$825/st FOB for MAP.
California:
The MAP market was quoted at $910-$920/st rail-DEL or FOB California warehouses in mid-December.
Pacific Northwest:
MAP pricing in the Pacific Northwest was steady at $907/st FOB Aurora, Ore., with delivered tons pegged at $910/st in Washington, Oregon, and Nevada, and $900/st in Idaho, Utah, and Montana.
Western Canada:
New MAP offers in Western Canada were quoted at C$1,230-$1,280/mt FOB regional warehouses, up C$25/mt at the low end of the range, with delivered tons pegged at C$1,250-$1,280/mt in the region, depending on location.
Saudi Arabia:
The Saudi Arabia phosphate market was noted firming to the $850-$900/mt FOB range, increasing from $800-$900/mt FOB at last report.
China:
Rumors were flying this week that the Chinese government might ease its export restrictions on DAP and MAP. Sources dismissed these rumors, however, noting that from the beginning the DAP producers in particular were pressuring the government to allow them to export some of their product.
The desire to sell offshore is growing as buyers in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh remain anxious to get tons. Sources said in addition to the government’s desire to limit DAP exports to ensure a plentiful supply for the domestic market, more ports are reporting COVID-related shortages of manpower.
At the same time, there are not enough pilots to maneuver the vessels to the loading ports, forcing delays at anchorage. The government is reportedly giving priority to vessels that haul vital imports such as coal and oil over other products.
Morocco:
Sources said OCP production is leaning more to DAP than MAP. The move favors potential sales into Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, all at levels higher than what might be earned from MAP sales.
Buyers in India and Pakistan have made it clear they are desperate for DAP and are willing to pay higher prices to get what they need. The discussion of prices makes these two markets favorable to any producer with tons to sell. Reportedly, Pakistan is trying to play Morocco and Saudi Arabia against each other for lower prices, but with limited success.
The BCIC tender in Bangladesh also showed the country’s willingness to step up and secure DAP at levels higher than in the past.
Besides these three DAP buyers, sources said Ethiopia is looking for large quantities of DAP for its annual needs. OCP traditionally dominates this market, and sources said 2021-2022 will be no different.
India:
Buyers in India are willing to pay more for DAP, but are not willing to buy any more than they need. Sources said recent purchases, which touched $900/mt CFR, were enough to cover immediate needs rather than any serious forward buying.
One trader said it made no sense for the buyers to get too far ahead of the market, predicting that prices could see a softening in the first quarter of 2022.
Brazil:
Sources reported limited availability of MAP at the ports, with prices tightening to $850-$900/mt CFR.
The tightening of the market price came as buyers reacted to unfounded rumors that China might release some MAP for export sooner than the current May 31 target date. Also tightening the MAP market were reports that OCP was reducing MAP production in favor of the more lucrative DAP markets in Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh.
The price in Rondonopolis widened to $940-$1,100/mt FOB ex-warehouse as buyers looked for bargains to top off their needs.