Central Florida:
Central Florida DAP truck postings were noted at $785/st FOB, steady from mid-December. Truck-loaded MAP was posted even with DAP at $785/st FOB. Sources described the North Florida MAP truck market unmoved at $780/st FOB.
U.S. Gulf:
Players noted drifting price sentiment on the NOLA barge phosphate markets, despite minimal confirmed sales during the holiday period.
Price ideas on DAP were quoted up to $745/st FOB, softening from the market’s prior $750/st FOB top, while import trades and offers were reported drifting from the prior $740/st FOB to as low as $730/st FOB. Sources described bidding concentrated around the $715-$720/st FOB mark, hinting at the potential for softening in the next round of trading.
Domestic MAP indications were steady at the top of the prior range at $765/st FOB. Sources described import pricing in the $750-$755/st FOB range, softer than the prior $755/st FOB floor. Players primarily attributed the lower sentiment to end-user demand uncertainty.
U.S. Exports:
Nothing new was heard on the Gulf export market, leaving last-reported pricing steady at $810/mt FOB.
Cornbelt:
DAP and MAP price indications appeared to be unchanged in the Cornbelt in late December, sources reported.
Saudi Arabia:
Phosphate sales out of Saudi Arabia were heard pressing higher over the holidays, firming to the $865-$900/mt FOB range. Sources confirmed a $917/mt CFR trade into Pakistan during the period. The Saudi market was last noted at $850-$900/mt FOB.
Pakistan:
Sources reported a DAP sale by Ma’aden to Pakistan at $917/mt CFR. The price fits in with the $915/mt CFR deal done by OCP to Pakistan in late November. The deal, said sources, indicates prices are holding strong even as major buyers push back.
India:
National Fertilizers Ltd. called a tender for long-term supplies of DAP, NPK, and NPS. The tender calls for a supplier to ship 600,000 mt over 12 months, with an option for an additional 150,000 mt. The tender closes Jan. 23, 2022.
The tender documents said shipment will be for the 12-month period beginning when the award is made. Pricing is on a delivered basis, with the price to be set 25 days before shipping. Orders will be divided between East and West Coast ports. The final destination will be set three weeks before shipment.
China:
Sources reported an inventory of about 460,000 mt of DAP in bonded portside warehouses available for export. The tonnage is apparently material that was booked before the Oct. 15 deadline restricting exports and is only now clearing customs.
Under the terms of the export restrictions, the Chinese government will not allow certain fertilizers – including DAP and MAP – from being exported unless local governments attest that supplies are sufficient in their area and the tons are not needed for the domestic market.
Sources said the material identified in the warehouses might find its way to the original buyers in the first quarter of 2022. Reportedly, the material is already booked by end-users, meaning access to the tons will not affect the spot market.
January-November 2021 DAP exports were reported at 6.2 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 18.9 percent up from the 5.2 million mt exported during the same period in 2020. The main buyers were India at 1.7 million mt, Pakistan at 868,000 mt, and Bangladesh at 630,000 mt.
November 2021 DAP exports reflected the first full month of the export restrictions imposed by the Chinese government. Exports for November 2021 were reported at 129,000 mt, down about three-quarters from the 478,000 mt exported during November 2020. The November exports were also significantly lower than the October 2021 number of 790,000 mt.
MAP exports for January-November 2021 were reported at 3.76 million mt, up 57.8 percent from the 2.4 million mt exported during the same period in 2020, according to Trade Data Monitor. The main buyer of MAP during the period was Brazil at 1.8 million mt.
Exports of MAP were also affected by the Chinese export restrictions. November 2021 exports were reported at 76,000 mt, down from the 254,000 mt in November 2020 and 233,000 mt in October 2021.
Brazil:
Low seasonal demand for MAP and the holiday season kept things quiet in Brazil. Sources said prices remained stable, largely because buyers were actively pushing back against higher prices. The absence of willing buyers has left the price at a plateau.
There remains concern, however, that the MAP price will eventually be forced up. Morocco, the main MAP supplier to Brazil, has been cutting back on its MAP production in favor of DAP for India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. The reduced availability of North African MAP could push the price up in Brazil in the first quarter of 2022.