U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous ammonia for January closed at $1,115/mt CFR, up from December’s $990/mt CFR.
While Tampa prices for February will not be concluded until later this month, Nutrien reported this week that it had procured some 15,000 mt from Algeria for delivery to the U.S. Gulf at $1,175/mt CFR, thereby giving some guidance for Tampa’s next round of business. The Nutrien vessel set sail on Jan. 17.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained at $1,300-$1,400/st FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low confirmed on a spot basis in Illinois for January-February tons and the high in Ohio for both prompt and spring prepay pricing.
One contact pegged the bulk of spring ammonia offers at $1,375-$1,380/st FOB in Illinois in mid-January, adding that the market had “gone dead quiet in light of the urea action.”
Western Cornbelt:
Sources continued to report ammonia pricing in the $1,350-$1,395/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported for limited January-February offers. Most of the spring prepay business remained in the $1,365-$1,395/st FOB range in the region, depending on location and supplier.
Ammonia in the North Dakota market remained at $1,450/st FOB and $1,550/st DEL for the last spring pricing offers.
California:
The ammonia market remained at $1,085/st DEL in California in mid-January, with aqua ammonia referenced at the $281/st FOB level.
Pacific Northwest:
The ammonia market was quoted at $1,350-$1,400/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, down from the last offers confirmed in December, with the low reported in Washington for truck tons now through the end of February, and the high for spring pricing offers.
The aqua ammonia market was pegged at $342/st FOB in the region for spring tons.
Western Canada:
The ammonia market in Western Canada was steady at C$2,000-$2,100/mt DEL for spring tons, depending on location and supplier. One Saskatchewan contact pegged the market firmly at the C$2,030/mt DEL level for any offers still on the table in mid-January.
Black Sea:
Ammonia prices shifted upward on the heels of a Trammo deal for 10,000 mt. Sources said prices are now at $1,100-$1,120/mt FOB. Some in the industry are even arguing the price should be at $1,150/mt FOB, but so far, no spot deal has been made to confirm that level.
The tension between Russia and Ukraine is making the market nervous. A Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine could prompt that country to stop the flow of ammonia to Yuzhnyy, leaving buyers high and dry. Moving the product out of Russia by other means would be too costly, said sources.
One trader noted that if Yuzhnyy gets closed to Russian ammonia, there are few viable options. Moving the ammonia by rail to another port would not work because there are not enough railcars to replace the capacity of the pipeline. Also, the ports that would work best as an alternative to Yuzhnyy for ammonia are ones held by Baltic countries. These countries also have no great love for Russia and may cooperate with Ukraine if Russian troops invade.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf producers remain tight on product. Sources said they are fulfilling their contracts but have very little available for spot deals. Sources said prices remain around $900/mt FOB for contracted tons. Any spot deals would be significantly higher, but there are no spot deals.
Sources said India is having problems lining up financing for Iranian ammonia. Apparently, the banks that helped finance previous purchases have backed off because of the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. The tonnage was shifted to Turkey.
According to Trade Data Monitor, India was Iran’s main buyer in 2021, taking 367,000 mt, accounting for 68 percent of the 541,000 mt the country exported. Iranian ammonia exports for 2021 were down 14.25 percent from 2020.
December exports were reported at 24,000 mt, down 62 percent from 65,000 mt in December 2020. India took 23,000 mt of the December total, with Turkey taking the balance.
India:
The inability to import Iranian ammonia has caused buyers to look elsewhere – and at much higher prices. Sources said one buyer seems to have sent a vessel to China to pick up 10,000 mt of ammonia. However, others are not able to confirm this deal, and no one is able to estimate the price.
Discussion for purchases now seem to be in the $990s/mt CFR. With the Arab Gulf mostly sold out and Iran now taken out of the equation, sources said Indian buyers are having a hard time finding the product they need.
North Africa:
The sale to Nutrien from Algeria caught the attention of the global ammonia market.
While Algeria seemed to be able to cover for what some in the industry suspect is a Trinidad production issue, the ammonia producers in the North African country may also have problems. Sources said Fertiglobe, which handles the marketing for Sorfert, entered the buying market, taking the Libya tender from last week and also concluding talks with Abu Qir in Egypt for tonnage. One trader noted that the only way he could explain the Fertiglobe action is if there is a problem at Sorfert. The Algerian company has not commented on any production issues.
Demand for ammonia in Morocco remains strong. Sources noted that as OCP has shifted to more DAP production, its demand for ammonia has stepped up. The daily consumption of ammonia for MAP production at OCP was pegged at 5,000-6,000 mt/d. The consumption for DAP is put at 7,000-8,000 mt/d. The increased demand has OCP buying as much ammonia as it can from as many sources as possible, said a trader.
Northwest Europe:
Ammonia prices in Antwerp and from Baltic ports remained steady. Sources said the Northwest Europe price is holding at $1,180-$1,250/mt C&F and should remain steady through the end of the month.
The Baltic export price of $1,140/mt FOB should hold even until a new price is negotiated for February. Sources anticipate higher prices next month.
South Korea:
Ammonia imports for 2021 were reported at 1.4 million mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is up 12 percent from 2020 imports of 1.2 million mt. The main supplier into South Korea was Indonesia with 575,000 mt, representing 42 percent of the import market. Saudi Arabia came in second with 20 percent of the market at 278,000 mt.
December 2021 imports were reported at 120,000 mt, up 58 percent from December 2020 imports of 76,000 mt. Saudi Arabia supplied 68,000 mt of the December tonnage, followed by Indonesia at 20,000 mt, and Malaysia at 15,000 mt.
China:
Imports of ammonia for 2021 were down about 30 percent from 2020 imports, according to data gathered by Trade Data Monitor. The 2021 imports were reported at 809,000 mt, compared to the 1.2 million mt imported in 2020.
The main suppliers of ammonia to China in 2021 were Indonesia with 343,000 mt, representing 42 percent of the imports; Saudi Arabia, with 155,000 mt; and Malaysia with 106,000 mt.
December 2021 imports were reported at 34,000 mt, down 72.5 percent from December 2020, or 123,000 mt. Indonesia supplied nearly all of the December tons at 33,700 mt.