U.S. Gulf:
Recent potash barge price ideas were quoted at $670-$675/st FOB, down from $670-$680/st FOB. With inland prices edging downward, sources speculated that the next barge trade may see a lower number.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The potash market was reported at $700-$725/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location. Nutrien on Jan. 20 reported that it is nearly fully committed for Q1 potash sales and shipment objectives domestically, and that customers are “optimistic” about spring demand given the current commodity price outlook.
“Global granular potash supply concerns are keeping the market firm, and Nutrien will be ready with potash supply to service the demand when it emerges,” the company said in a statement. “The start of spring is not too far away, with planting commencing in 30-45 days in the South.”
Western Cornbelt:
Potash pricing was unchanged at $700-$720/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis and the high in Iowa. Sources pegged the St. Paul, Minn., market at $710-$720/st FOB, also unchanged from the prior week, with the Catoosa/Inola market falling to $700-$715/st FOB.
California:
Potash pricing remained at $850-$870/st FOB in California for Q1 offers, with the lower numbers reported for 60 percent MOP and the high for 62 percent.
Pacific Northwest:
Potash prices remained at a firm $805-$825/st FOB or DEL for Q1 tons in the Pacific Northwest in mid-January, with the low confirmed for 60 percent and the high for 62 percent MOP. The last offers from Intrepid FOB Moab and Wendover, Utah, included $775/st for 60 percent white standard and $780/st for 60 percent white granular.
Western Canada:
Sources continued to report truck pricing for potash in the C$955-$975/mt range FOB Saskatchewan mines for Q1 offers, depending on grade.
India:
RCF issued a tender on Jan. 18 for the supply of 170,000 mt of bulk potash. The tender closes on Jan. 28, and offers are required to remain valid for 30 days from the tender opening. Belarusian Potash Co. has traditionally been a key supplier into RCF’s potash tenders.
| Quantity | Color | Shipment period | Discharge port | Discharge rate PWWD |
| 35,000 mt firm | White/pink | Feb. 2022 | MBPT HB | 3,000 mt SHEXEIU |
| 35,000 mt firm | White/pink | March 2022 | ||
| 50,000 mt firm | 40,000 mt white and 10,000 mt pink | Feb. 2022 | East coast ports like KPCL/Kakinada etc. | 10,000 mt SHEXEIU |
| 50,000 mt at mutual option | 15,000 mt white and 35,000 mt pink | March 2022 | ||
| Total | 170,000 mt |
Brazil:
Uncertainty over how many tons will eventually make it to Brazil from Belarus is affecting pricing ideas. Sources reported a slight uptick at the ports to $770-$810/mt CFR.At the same time, however, the Rondonopolis price came down to $860-$919/mt FOB ex-warehouse as farmers continued to hold off in their demand, hoping for lower prices.
China:
Imports of MOP in 2021 were down 13 percent to 7.7 million mt, compared to 2020 imports of 8.8 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor. Russia, Canada, and Belarus remained the main suppliers, with product from these three companies representing 82 percent of the total Chinese market.
The three big suppliers were close in their shares of the Chinese import market. Russia supplied 29 percent of the MOP reported in 2021, a greater share than 2020’s 25.6 percent.
Canadian suppliers lost ground in the Chinese market. While still the second-largest supplier with 2.2 million mt in 2021 for a 28 percent share of the market, the figures are not as good as 2020, when Canada sent 3.6 million mt to China for a 41 percent share of the market.
The big winner was Belarus, which jumped from 1.4 million mt in 2020 to 1.75 million mt in 2021. Its share of the market moved from 16 percent to 23 percent in the same period.
December imports were down across the board. Trade Data Monitor reported December 2021 imports of 290,000 mt against 564,000 mt in December 2020. November and October 2021 imports were also down from the same months in 2020.