U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous ammonia for February continued at $1,135/mt CFR. Market players said the jury is still out for February, noting that the $20/mt increase for January was relatively small compared to the leaps posted in prior months.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was steady at $1,300-$1,400/st FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low confirmed for prompt tons in Illinois and the high reported in Ohio for both prompt and spring prepay pricing. Most prepay offers in Illinois and Indiana fell in the $1,375-$1,385/st FOB range.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing remained in the $1,350-$1,395/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with most of the spring prepay business pegged in the $1,365-$1,395/st FOB range in the region.
Southern Plains:
The ammonia market was quoted at $1,250-$1,300/st FOB production points in the region for prompt or prepay, with the low at Verdigris and Pryor, Okla., and the upper end reported at Coffeyville, Kan. The last offers FOB Enid, Okla., were pegged at $1,275/st FOB for 1Q and spring tons, while prompt truck tons at Beaumont, Texas, remained at $1,050/st FOB.
South Central:
The ammonia market remained at $1,000-$1,050/st FOB Gulf Coast terminals for truck offers, depending on location. No prompt or forward prices were reportedly being offered at El Dorado, Ark., Midway, Tenn., or Cherokee, Ala.
Black Sea:
Sources said the minor increase in pricing in Tampa and the slight drop in the Baltic price have buyers looking to push the price below the current low-end of the range of $1,100/mt FOB. However, the lack of any spot material in the area ruled out any price testing.
Limited tons out of Yuzhnyy are expected for a while. Traders said the pipeline that normally feeds material to the port is now running at a slower rate than last month. The ammonia arriving at the port facilities is reportedly already spoken for.
Northwest Europe:
Baltic suppliers have settled on a February price of $1,115/mt FOB, down about $25/mt from the January price. Sources said the price drop is such a small percentage of the total cost that the best they can figure is that maybe ammonia prices have reached their peak and may be ready for a drop – or at least a plateau.
News of additional tons of varying amounts from Europe and North Africa gave buyers support in their efforts to stem ever-rising prices. However, gas prices remain high in Europe, leaving the production cost of ammonia around $1,100/mt. Until natural gas prices dramatically drop, further reductions in ammonia prices will be difficult to achieve, said sources.
The move in the Baltics has not yet affected the Northwest Europe price. Sources expect the current $1,180-$1,250/mt C&F price to come off at least $25/mt in the next week or so.
Middle East:
Supplies of ammonia out of the Arab Gulf remain tight, with no opportunities for spot deals to move the price off the $900/mt FOB level achieved several weeks ago. One trader noted, however, that occasionally a few small lots of about 5,000 mt are made available but quickly snapped up, with both sides remaining quiet about the final price.
The material being shipped out of the region is tied to contracts and formula-based prices. Based on the current estimate for contract tons into India, sources said the price from the Arab producers would be about $850/mt FOB. However, that rate is only available for the contract holders.
Reports circulated this week that Ma’aden was currently in the commissioning phase of its new plant. Production for export is expected to begin in late March. If the plant faces no further delays, sources figured the first full cargo might be shipped out in early April.
The facility has a rated production capacity of 600,000 mt/y. The presence of this new product will ease pressure on the regional producers to fulfill existing contracts and to reach out to some spot buyers.
India:
Demand from India seems to have eased off. Sources said reduced demand for ammonia from the country was expected after reports circulated that the DAP producers will be taking a series of maintenance turnarounds in the next couple of months.
Indonesia:
Exports of ammonia for 2021 were reported at 1.8 million mt, up 9.5 percent from 2020 exports of 1.6 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor.
The main buyers in 2021 were South Korea with 571,000 mt, accounting for 32 percent of Indonesian exports; China with 334,000 mt, for 19 percent of the sales; and Taiwan with 309,000 mt, for 17.5 percent of Indonesian exports. The Chinese sales were down from 2020, when 498,000 mt, or 31 percent of Indonesian exports, went to China.
December 2021 exports were up 11 percent, to 136,000 mt from December 2020 sales of 123,000 mt. The December exports represented a bounce back from November 2021 sales of 98,000 mt, reaching a level closer to the monthly export rate of 147,000 mt.
Turkey:
Imports of ammonia for 2021 were reported at 839,000 mt, down about 31 percent from 2020 imports of 1.2 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor.Russia was the dominant supplier with 525,000 mt, representing about 62 percent of the ammonia imports. In a distant second was Algeria with 78,000 mt.
December 2021 imports were down 22.5 percent, to 78,000 mt from December 2020 imports of 101,000 mt.