U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous ammonia for February remained at $1,135/mt CFR.
Correction: Text in the U.S. Gulf/Tampa ammonia section last week should have read: Market players said the jury is still out for March, noting that the $20/mt increase for February was relatively small compared to the leaps posted in prior months.
U.S. Imports:
December ammonia imports were off 22.2 percent, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, to 156,534 st from 201,272 st in the prior year. Imports firmed 11.0 percent for July-December, however, to 1.27 million st from the year-ago 1.14 million st.
U.S. Exports:
Ammonia exports were off 46.0 percent in July-December, to 187,946 st from the year-ago 348,136 st. Exports were noted at 7,529 st for December, falling 89.2 percent from December 2020 exports of 69,416 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was unchanged at $1,300-$1,400/st FOB regional terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the low confirmed for prompt tons in Illinois and the high reported in Ohio for both prompt and spring prepay pricing. Most prepay offers in Illinois and Indiana remained in the $1,375-$1,385/st FOB range.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing was steady at $1,350-$1,395/st FOB terminals in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of shipment, with the bulk of spring prepay offers pegged in the $1,365-$1,395/st FOB range in the region.
California:
The anhydrous ammonia market firmed to $1,185/st DEL in California on Feb. 1, up $100/st from the previous Calamco posting. The aqua ammonia market was quoted at $306-$316/st FOB in the state as of Feb. 1, up from the prior low of $281/st FOB.
Pacific Northwest:
The ammonia market remained at $1,350-$1,400/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, with the low reported in Washington for prompt truck tons and the high for spring pricing offers.
The aqua ammonia market was unchanged at $342/st FOB for spring tons in the region.
Western Canada:
The ammonia market in Western Canada was steady at C$2,000-$2,100/mt DEL for the last reported spring pricing offers, depending on location and supplier.
Black Sea:
No spot business was done this week, but sources said some extra tons may be available out of Yuzhnyy later in February. Reportedly, Rassosh will have 10,000-20,000 mt for export.
Once the Rassosh material is made available, sources expect to see prices fall from the current $1,110-$1,120/mt FOB. How far down is the question. Using calculations from potential deals in Europe, the price could go as low as $800/mt FOB. However, the most likely scenario, said one trader, is that the price will be a bit above or below $1,000/mt FOB. Another trader said the drop could as low as $900/mt FOB.
Sources reported there is still some concern about market conditions because of the tensions between Ukraine and Russia. The presence of Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea could hamper some trade, Ukrainian officials told the press. Any land action could also stop the flow of ammonia to Yuzhnyy.
For now, sources in Europe are wary of the situation but plan to move out tons already under contract, and to be prepared to take the product from Rossosh when it is available.
Middle East:
Availability in the area has taken a hit. Sources reported a shutdown at Muntajat in Qatar. At the same time, Ma’aden announced it would not be shipping any ammonia from its new facility until the third quarter.
No details of the Muntajat shutdown were available, sources said. The first indication of a problem, said one trader, came when Muntajat offered for lease a chartered vessel that was scheduled to load a cargo later this month.
The cutback may not be serious. Sources said if the company expected output to be reduced for a long time it would be trying to arrange swaps with other producers to ensure all contracts get covered. So far there is no indication that swaps are under discussion.
The Ma’aden situation means vessels chartered by the company will be offered to other users. Sources noted that the issues with production in the area have left the region long on transportation. The situation was expected to be corrected when Ma’aden came online. However, the longer it takes for Ma’aden to start exporting means vessels charted by Ma’aden will be offered to other producers or buyers.
The lack of any spot business left the public price steady at $900/mt FOB. However, the contract price is said to be closer to $850-$860/mt FOB.
India:
Demand seems to have slowed down to just taking what was contracted instead of looking for additional product. Sources said the lack of inquiries from the industrial and fertilizer sectors is an indication that supplies are sufficient for now.
That may change soon if DAP producers follow the urging of the Indian government to step up DAP production. The imported ammonia is meeting the current needs, said sources, but increasing production will require more ammonia. Buyers will have to step into the spot market to fill those needs.
Northwest Europe:
The price of $1,180-$1,250/mt C&F has not yet moved. Sources said the lower gas prices in Europe and the potential of lower prices in Yuzhnyy should soon be enough to finish what the dip in February Baltic prices started, and push the price down.
The lower gas prices in Europe have now changed the calculations about running plants. Sources said the cost of producing ammonia has now dropped to about $900/mt from $1,000/mt just a week ago. The lower price will encourage producers to stay online, and for buyers to continue to push against suppliers in the Baltic and Black Seas.
Brazil:
Ammonia imports for January 2022 were reported at 24,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor. This amount is down 54 percent from the 53,000 mt imported in January 2021. The sole source of ammonia in January was Trinidad.
The January 2022 imports were not much different from imports during the previous three months. October, November, and December showed imports of 33,000 mt, 27,000 mt, and 30,000 mt, respectively.