Nutrien Ltd. beat analyst guidance for both fourth-quarter and full-year adjusted EBITDA. The company posted fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $2.46 billion, compared to guidance of $2.41 billion. The company tripled the year-ago $768 million. Nutrien’s full-year performance was $7.13 billion versus $7.07 billion from the Bloomberg Consensus, the average of major analysts. 2021 adjusted EBITDA was $3.67 billion.
Fourth-quarter net earnings were $1.21 billion ($2.11 per diluted share) on sales of $7.3 billion, up from the year-ago $316 million ($0.55 per share) and $4.05 billion, respectively. Full-year net earnings were $3.18 billion ($5.52 per share) on sales of $27.7 billion up from $459 million ($0.81 per share) and $20.9 billion, respectively.
“The advantages of Nutrien’s integrated business were demonstrated in 2021 as we delivered record financial results and made significant progress on our long-term strategic targets, including our key sustainability priorities,” said Ken Seitz, Nutrien’s Interim President and CEO. “We utilized the scale and reliability of our world-class supply chain and the strong execution of our teams to ensure customers had the products and services they needed, when they needed them.
“The outlook for global agriculture and crop input markets is very strong, and we are well positioned to deliver significant growth in earnings and free cash flow in 2022,” he added. “We will continue to advance our strategic priorities and maintain a disciplined approach to deploying capital, using our strong financial position to grow the business and return significant cash to shareholders.”
Seitz said Nutrien plans to boost its potash sales volumes to 13.7-14.3 million in 2022, up from 2021’s 13.6 million mt. He said the forecast assumes sanctions on Belarus have a temporary impact on the global market. The company expects global shipments at 68-71 million mt.
However, Seitz said Nutrien may produce another 500,000 mt in the second-half if demand warrants. He said the company would only proceed with a 5 million mt brownfield expansion if it sees prolonged challenges in Belarus. Nutrien puts its current capacity at 18 million mt (see Belarus Story).
In the U.S. market, Nutrien expects 91-93 million acres of corn and 87-89 million acres of soybeans.
For full-year 2022, Nutrien is projecting adjusted EBITDA of $10-$11.2 million ($10.20-$11.80 per share). Adjusted EBITDA for its segments include Retail $1.7-$1.8 billion, Potash $5.0-5.5 billion, Nitrogen $3.2-$3.6 billion, and Phosphate $500-$600 million. Potash sales are expected at 13.7-14.3 million mt, with nitrogen volumes put at 10.8-11.3 million mt.
Nutrien also reported that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.48 per share, representing a four percent increase from the prior dividend declared in November, equating to an annualized dividend of US$1.92 per share.
The Board also approved the purchase of up to ten percent of the public float of Nutrien’s common shares over a one-year period through a normal course issuer bid.
| Retail (millions) | 4Q-21 | 4Q-20 | 2021 | 2020 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 442 | 297 | 1,939 | 1,430 |
| Gross Margin | 1,173 | 885 | 4,600 | 3,736 |
| Total Sales | 3,878 | 2,618 | 17,734 | 14,785 |
| CN Sales | 2,035 | 1,108 | 7,290 | 5,200 |
| CN Margins | 428 | 236 | 1,597 | 1,130 |
| CN Volume (000 mt) | 2,821 | 2,685 | 13,383 | 12,732 |
| Avg ($/mt) | 721 | 413 | 545 | 408 |
| CN gross margin per mt | 152 | 88 | 119 | 89 |
| Potash (millions) | 4Q-21 | 4Q-20 | 2021 | 2020 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 1,053 | 220 | 2,736 | 1,190 |
| Gross Margin | 1,115 | 145 | 2,751 | 963 |
| Total Sales | 1,420 | 450 | 4,036 | 2,146 |
| Sales Volume (000 mt) | 3,056 | 2,654 | 13,625 | 12,824 |
| Avg ($/mt) | 465 | 170 | 296 | 167 |
| Nitrogen (millions) | 4Q-21 | 4Q-20 | 2021 | 2020 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 921 | 266 | 2,308 | 1,080 |
| Gross Margin | 754 | 112 | 1,726 | 475 |
| Total Sales | 1,456 | 555 | 3,984 | 2,222 |
| Sales Volume (000 mt) | 2,835 | 2,845 | 10,725 | 10,966 |
| Avg ($/mt) | 514 | 195 | 371 | 203 |
| Gas Costs ($/mmBtu) | 6.40 | 2.74 | 4.61 | 2.36 |
| Phosphate (millions) | 4Q-21 | 4Q-20 | 2021 | 2020 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 196 | 63 | 540 | 232 |
| Gross Margin | 163 | 16 | 421 | 36 |
| Total Sales | 532 | 280 | 1,628 | 1,075 |
| Sales Volume (000 mt) | 711 | 648 | 2,619 | 2,781 |
| Avg ($/mt) | 749 | 433 | 622 | 387 |