Central Florida:
With no new price updates reported for the Central Florida truck market, DAP truck pricing remained at the most recent $785/st FOB level, despite new indications pointing to significant increases in the next round of business. MAP trucks also remained at $785/st FOB.
MAP trucks loading from North Florida firmed to $930/st FOB, players said, up from the last reported $800/st FOB level.
U.S. Gulf:
NOLA barge phosphate prices continued to ratchet higher, sources indicated, primarily due to ongoing geopolitical instability and associated supply uncertainty.
Nearby DAP barges trading at the start of the March 4-10 trading week were quoted as low as $875/st FOB, up from the prior $850/st FOB bottom, while traders reported top-level trades shooting to $975/st FOB by March 9, up $80/st compared to the week-ago $895/st FOB ceiling. Most volume was reported trading in the $925-$975/st FOB range for the period.
MAP barges also moved much higher, despite garnering less attention than DAP. Players noted a floor of $900/st FOB, reportedly achieved at the start of the trading week, while barges reportedly firmed to $960/st FOB later in the period, lifting from the week-ago $895/st FOB top. Most believed further price increases were imminent, likely resulting in values on par with DAP.
Nearby DAP barge pricing was generally reported in the $875-$975/st FOB range, up from $850-$895/st FOB the week before. Sources quoted MAP barges at $900-$960/st FOB, firming from $865-$895/st FOB at last report.
U.S. Exports:
Players reported no new spot phosphate exports out of the U.S. Gulf during the week. Recent reported transactions carried $850-$858/mt FOB pricing. Substantial firming in both the international and domestic U.S. markets hinted at increased values in the next round of business.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Phosphate prices continued to climb quickly in the Eastern Cornbelt, fueled by rapidly firming NOLA barge values. DAP was quoted at $950-$990/st FOB regional terminals at midweek, up from the prior week’s $865-$930/st range, with reports of spot values spiking to $1,000/st FOB or higher by the end of the week.
MAP was pegged at $960-$1,020/st FOB in the region, with the upper levels confirmed late in the week on a spot basis. The Cincinnati market was quoted at $960-$995/st FOB for both DAP and MAP during the week.
In the Great Lakes region, sources reported DAP firming to $1,015-$1,045/st FOB and MAP as high as $1,050/st FOB, depending on location.
Western Cornbelt:
Phosphate prices were up dramatically in the Western Cornbelt. The DAP market jumped to $965-$1,015/st FOB, up roughly $100/st from the prior week, with the St. Louis market pegged solidly at $985-$995/st FOB on March 10. MAP was quoted in the $975-$1,020/st FOB range in the region, depending on location and time of the week, with the St. Louis market pegged at the $990/st FOB level or higher late in the week.
Sources confirmed Catoosa/Inola pricing at $995-$1,015/st FOB for DAP and $995-$1,020/st FOB for MAP on March 10.
“When NOLA DAP may be $1,000/st, they are not going to sell many, if any, tons under that at a terminal,” commented one source.
Northern Plains:
The St. Paul market was quoted at $950-$1,000/st for DAP and $960-$1,000/st for MAP. There were also reports of delivered MAP offers in the $950-$975/st range in western North Dakota.
Northeast:
Phosphate prices in the Northeast reportedly jumped to $1,000-$1,005/st FOB for MAP, with the low reported at Fairless Hills and the high at East Liverpool. That range was up dramatically from the prior week’s $910-$940/st FOB and the late-February range of $815-$840/st FOB. DAP was pegged at a firm $1,000/st FOB East Liverpool at midweek.
In the Southeast, Nutrien’s postings for DAP and MAP firmed to $930/st FOB Aurora, N.C., during the week, up dramatically from the prior week’s $800/st FOB level.
Eastern Canada:
The MAP market jumped to a broad C$1,200-$1,355/mt FOB range in Eastern Canada, depending on supplier and location, up from the late-February price of C$1,160-$1,200/mt FOB. DAP pricing at Montreal was reportedly up a full C$120/mt, to C$1,300/mt FOB.
India:
Sources reported a few small purchases of DAP at $925/mt CFR. The buying is mostly for building reserves for the next application season. Several DAP plants will be down for March, taking scheduled maintenance turnarounds.
China:
Sources calculated new prices for DAP based on the recent sales into India. The new price is pegged at $890-$900/mt FOB, which tightens the range.
Sources expect to keep seeing some tons move out as old contracts are being honored by producers. Customs officials reportedly are becoming more aggressive in ensuring the applications for DAP exports are actually for existing deals rather than new sales.
Brazil:
As supplies of MAP from Russia fell into question and as China indicated its export restrictions will go on longer than expected, buyers became more aggressive in paying for their needs. Sources reported prices now at $1,010-$1,100/mt CFR, depending on the discharge port.
On the heels of a Russian announcement that it would ban sales to “unfriendly countries,” sources noted that Brazil was not on the list. The problem Brazilian importers will continue to face, however, is the global set of sanctions against Russian companies and banks.
Rondonopolis prices moved up to $1,100-$1,200/mt FOB ex-warehouse, with expectations that supplies will soon be tightening.
Imports of MAP for the first two months of the year were reported at 311,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor. Imports from the same period in 2021 were reported at 639,500 mt. Russia dominated the 2022 imports with 173,000 mt, down from 272,000 mt during the same period in 2021.
February MAP imports were reported at 204,000 mt, down 41 percent from February 2021 imports of 347,000 mt.