Central Florida:
DAP and MAP trucks loading from Central Florida were posted at $945/st FOB, tightening from $910-$950/st FOB in the prior report.
North Florida MAP trucks firmed to $1,025/st FOB, up from $1,000/st FOB reported previously.
U.S. Gulf:
NOLA barge phosphate values searched for direction during the week. DAP lows reportedly fell to match the recent MAP floor, while buyers simultaneously fueled a fresh MAP high above the DAP ceiling for the first time since February.
DAP barges loading in April and May were quoted changing hands at a $960/st FOB low, slipping from the week-ago $980/st FOB, while importers quoted the top of the range even with the market’s prior $1,010/st FOB high.
The MAP low continued to be quoted at $960/st FOB, unchanged from the prior week, with the top of the range trading at a reported $1,015/st FOB, up from $995/st FOB last week, and the first time MAP barges have moved above the $1,000 FOB mark since Sept. 22, 2008. The MAP market’s all-time high, also set in mid-2008, currently stands at $1,115/st FOB.
Nearby DAP pricing was quoted in the $960-$1,010/st FOB range, slipping from $980-$1,010/st FOB at last report. MAP barges firmed to $960-$1,015/st FOB, sources said, rising from $960-$995/st FOB in the prior report.
U.S. Export:
Mosaic announced export sales of DAP and MAP into a single location in Latin America during the week. The cargoes, both valued at $1,240/mt FOB, weighed in at roughly 5,000 mt, the minimum tonnage required for inclusion in the Green Markets phosphate export range.
Based on reported sales, the Gulf DAP and MAP export markets firmed to $1,240/mt FOB, up from $1,000-$1,050/mt FOB at last report. Price guidance for the next round of business was noted at $1,250/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt remained at $1,000-$1,030/st FOB regional terminals, with the Cincinnati market reported at the upper end of the range. MAP was also in the $1,000-$1,030/st FOB range in late March, with the Cincinnati market quoted solidly at the $1,020/st FOB level.
Western Cornbelt:
The DAP market was steady at $1,000-$1,030/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with MAP reported in roughly the same range. Sources pegged the lower end of both ranges at St. Louis during the week.
Northern Plains:
DAP and MAP pricing was pegged at $1,000-$1,030/st FOB St. Paul, with reports of delivered green MAP offers at the $1,050/st level in western North Dakota, up significantly from the $950-$975/st DEL range reported earlier in the month.
Great Lakes:
MAP prices had reportedly firmed to $1,025-1,050/st FOB terminals in the Great Lakes region, with the low confirmed at Maumee and the high out of spot Michigan warehouses. DAP pricing was quoted at $1,030/st FOB Maumee, $1,040/st FOB Webberville, and $1,045/st FOB Toledo.
Northeast:
Phosphate prices at East Liverpool, Ohio, firmed to $1,030/st FOB for DAP and $1,020/st FOB for MAP, up $15-$30/st from last report. Sources said no MAP tons were being offered at Fairless Hills in late March.
In the Southeast, Nutrien confirmed that its DAP and MAP postings at Aurora, N.C., had firmed to $1,025/st FOB, up from $1,000/st at last report, with MAP pricing at White Springs, Fla., also jumping to the $1,025/st FOB level for new offers.
Eastern Canada:
MAP pricing in Eastern Canada jumped to a wide C$1,350-$1,480/mt FOB range in late March, depending on supplier and location, up from C$1,200-$1,355/mt at last report. DAP pricing at Montreal was reportedly up a full C$100/mt, to C$1,400/mt FOB.
Saudi Arabia:
Saudi Arabia phosphate values firmed to $950-$1,175/mt FOB for the week, up from $950-$1,120/mt FOB at last report.
China:
Sources reported some DAP sales out of China at $1,080-$1,100/mt FOB. The quantities shipped were not large, but were tied to new deals instead of the previous shipments that were based on pre-October 2021 contracts.
So far, the Chinese government has allowed limited sales of DAP to allow producers to honor contracts that were in place before the export restrictions went into effect. With the restrictions slated to be lifted at the end of April, sources said buyers from India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Thailand will be anxious to secure what tons they can for June shipments.
The fly in the ointment for the global DAP market, however, is that the Chinese government wants to build a reserve stockpile of 1 million mt of DAP and other phosphate-based products for a special summer fertilizer program. This push to keep Chinese domestic reserves high could continue to keep the global availability of DAP at a premium.
The major buyers have already begun talks with other DAP producers, including Morocco and Jordan. However, these suppliers are more expensive than the Chinese plants.
India:
The NFL tender for 100,000 mt of DAP closed on March 28 with no offers submitted. This was the third attempt by NFL to buy two cargoes of 50,000 mt each, one for the East Coast.
Sources said the tonnage is available, but traders are nervous about getting caught leaning the wrong way in a volatile market, and producers are nervous about selling at a price that is quickly surpassed in a matter of hours.
The Indian government reacted to the rising prices of DAP by raising the maximum retail price (MRP) to RS27,000/mt (US$357/mt), up from RS25,000/mt (US$330/mt). The move included discussion of adding more money to the budget that takes effect on April 1 for fertilizer subsidies.
The current reported Chinese price for DAP would put the Indian price at $1,115-$1,130/mt CFR. The difference between the MRP and the imported price would have to be covered by an increase in subsidy expenditures.
Indonesia:
A tender for 135,000 mt of DAP or NP to four companies in multiple small shipments closed on March 23. Sources said the lowest offer of $1,135/mt CFR for DAP was too high for the Indonesians, who had a target price of $1,100/mt CFR.
The unnamed low offering company and the Indonesian buyers have gone into negotiations to reach an accord.
Sources said the small quantities of 10,000-15,000 mt for each lot could make supplying from China possible. The government offices that have to clear cargo for shipping based on domestic supplies have been loath to release large cargoes unless they were tied to pre-restriction contracts.
Brazil:
There was a slight uptick in MAP prices to $1,100-$1,250/mt CFR. The last of the pre-sanctioned Russian MAP is slated to arrive soon, leaving buyers nervous about sourcing future tons. This concern led to more aggressive bids.
Besides the general apprehension over product shortages, sources said Morocco is pushing for higher prices as the global phosphate market tightens.
The Rondonopolis price moved up as local buyers picked up top-off tons for immediate loading. Sources put the price at $1,400-$1,521/mt FOB ex-warehouse. The big concern seems to be getting material for immediate use. Sources said supplies for the season beginning in September appear to be adequate, easing long-term worries.