U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
With international ammonia cargoes and natural gas prices in Europe trending lower, sources voiced expectations of a sizeable downward move in the June Tampa ammonia contract. May prices were set at $1,425/mt CFR.
Eastern Cornbelt:
With weather delays slowly closing the preplant ammonia window, sources reported slightly softer terminal pricing in the Eastern Cornbelt in early May.
The regional ammonia range was quoted at $1,400-$1,525/st FOB, down $25-$50/st from the prior week, with the low confirmed at East Dubuque, Ill., and the high reflecting CF terminal pricing in Illinois and Indiana. Sources said most Koch terminals remained at the $1,450/st FOB level, while reference pricing FOB Lima, Ohio, was steady at the $1,475/st mark.
“We need some dry weather to finishing applying ammonia,” said one contact. “Mother Nature is not cooperating very well this year. But we did have a great fall ammonia run.”
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing reportedly dropped to $1,380-$1,450/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at Fort Dodge, Iowa, and the high at Palmyra, Mo. In the Southern Plains, the Coffeyville, Kan., ammonia price was confirmed at $1,350/st FOB in early May.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia reference pricing in California was unchanged at $1,610/st DEL, with aqua ammonia posted at $412-$422/st FOB in the state.
Pacific Northwest:
Anhydrous ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest was quoted in the $1,495-$1,555/st DEL range in early May, with terminal prices ranging from $1,450-$1,520/st FOB, depending on location. Aqua ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest was pegged at the $370/st FOB mark for spring tons, down from the last reported $405/st FOB level.
Western Canada:
Spring ammonia pricing in Western Canada was unchanged at C$2,230-$2,300/mt DEL for the last reported offers.
Black Sea:
Only the ports in the southern Black Sea are receiving and sending material. The Russian blockade and mining of Ukrainian harbors is keeping ammonia from moving out, denying the market any possibility of testing prices.
The ports in Bulgaria and Turkey are far enough from the war that deliveries are able to continue. The Ontario is slated to deliver about 10,000 mt to the Black Sea Bulgarian port of Varna next week. The deal was handled by Muntajat, which is keeping the price under wraps.
Trammo is reported to be selling a cargo to a Turkish buyer at $1,100/mt CFR from an unknown supplier.
Turkish imports of ammonia for the first quarter of the year were reported at 198,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This represents an 18 percent drop from the 242,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021.
March 2022 imports were reported at 67,000 mt, down 38 percent from the 108,000 mt received in March 2021. Russia supplied 27,000 mt of the March material, followed by Bahrain with 19,000 mt and Libya with 15,000 mt.
India:
Large buyers in India continue to bring in product under long-term contracts with prices set on a formula basis. Smaller buyers, bringing in lower quantities, are taking tons on a spot basis, but are remaining tight-lipped about pricing.
Sources said prices may have softened to $1,050-$1,100/mt CFR, but there has been no confirmation of this new level or any new deals done at these prices.
Southeast Asia:
Sources said business in the area is just about all contract tons, with no spot deals identified this week. Talks have been taking place, but there remains a big spread in pricing ideas.
Indonesian offers are reportedly being sent out at $1,125/mt FOB, with bids coming back at $800/mt FOB. Some counters have moved the price to $1,030/mt FOB, but still without agreements.
Buyers appear in no rush to purchase tons. Sources said most buyers in the area seem to have enough ammonia to allow them to hold off on making a purchase until they finally need the tons. Sellers, on the other hand, seem to be anxious to sell their product. The shift in strength to the buyers is placing downward pressure on prices in the area.
Thailand ammonia imports for the first quarter of the year were reported at 44,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This represents a 44 percent drop from the 95,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021.
March ammonia imports were also down, to 18,000 mt from the 39,000 mt imported in March 2021. Reportedly, 15,000 mt of the March 2022 material came from Malaysia.
Middle East:
Producers keep claiming the ammonia price for a deal is $1,400/mt FOB, but buyers keep counterbidding at $1,000/mt FOB. The impasse leaves the price at an older level in the $1,230s/mt FOB.
Sources said the price discovery process became more complicated. A reported sale from the Arab Gulf to OCP was rumored at $1,125/mt CFR. The netback to the Arab Gulf from this price would be around $1,000/mt FOB. No producer has owned up to making this deal, however.
A sale of 10,000-12,000 mt to Agropolchim in Bulgaria has the Ontario heading to Varna by next week. No price on the sale was made public.
Producers reportedly have enough ammonia available to cover their contracts and offer some smaller lots to buyers looking to replace tons lost from the Black Sea port closures. While the lost tons cannot be fully replaced from the Arab Gulf, the product can ease concerns of the smaller buyers.
At the same time, many buyers are in no hurry to buy tons. This easy attitude is leading to downward pressure on prices in the area.
North Africa:
The Moroccan phosphate giant OCP reportedly picked up a cargo at $1,125/mt CFR. Sources said they have not been able to confirm the price, nor identify the supplier.
If the price is accurate, the estimated netback to the Arab Gulf would be about $1,000/mt FOB, down from previous business and substantially lower than producers’ expectations.
Northwest Europe:
Ammonia prices remain steady, but ready to change. Sources said calculating the European price off the $1,125/mt CFR reportedly paid by OCP would move levels to $1,400-$1,500/mt C&F. At the same time, there were reports of deals that put the price at $1,200-$1,250/mt C&F.
Until confirmation of these deals comes in, sources said the price will hold in the $1,490s/mt C&F.