U.S. Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa anhydrous ammonia prices were $1,000/mt CFR for June, down $425/mt from May’s $1,425/mt CFR. Sources have been looking for lower numbers in July, but a rebound in European natural gas prices may further crimp margins and pressure ammonia prices.
U.S. Imports:
April ammonia imports totaled 209,145 st, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, down 24.1% from the year-ago 275,401 st. July-April totals were reported at 2.19 million st, a 3.0% increase on the year-ago 2.13 million st.
U.S. Exports:
Ammonia exports moved 89.8% higher in April, to 21,424 st from the prior-year 11,285 st. July-April exports softened 35.6%, however, to 298,844 st from the previous 464,265 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Sources reported heavy sidedress applications in the region, as weather and soil conditions allowed, with brisk demand reported for both ammonia and UAN.
The prompt ammonia market remained at $1,300-$1,375/st FOB in the region, with the low confirmed in Illinois and the high at Huntington, Ind., and Lima, Ohio.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources continued to report prompt ammonia pricing in the $1,300-$1,355/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, with low sidedress demand.Prompt pricing in the Southern Plains was quoted at $1,100-$1,200/st FOB, with the low reported at Dodge City, Kan., and the high out of production points in Oklahoma.
California:
Effective June 16, anhydrous ammonia postings from Calamco moved to $1,147/st DEL in California, down from the previous $1,610/st DEL reference price. Aqua ammonia postings also dropped, to $301/st FOB Stockton from the prior $412-$422/st level.
Pacific Northwest:
Sources reported the last prompt ammonia business at $1,475/st FOB and $1,500/st DEL in the Pacific Northwest, although some were suggesting deals could be had for as low as $1,275/st FOB and $1,300/st rail-DEL at mid-month. Others rejected those lower numbers, however.
“Resets are coming on ammonia and UAN, but it hasn’t happened yet,” reported one regional contact.
The last confirmed aqua ammonia business remained at the $370/st FOB mark for prompt tons.
Western Canada:
The last prompt ammonia business continued to be reported at C$2,230-$2,250/mt DEL for spring tons. Sources said they were awaiting the imminent release of summer fill pricing. Yara’s plant at Belle Plaine, Sask., is reportedly down for a turnaround.
Sources on June 16 said CF announced a July ammonia fill program FOB Medicine Hat, Alta., but no price was confirmed. The company is reportedly moving to FOB only pricing out of its facilities at Medicine Hat and Rycroft, Alta, Vanscoy, Sask., and Brandon, Man.
India:
Business into the country seems to be limited to contracted tons, rather than any spot business. Sources said the main deals are being handled by larger purchasers rather than the flurry of smaller, spot deals seen a month ago.
The lack of any spot deals also limits the ability to accurately nail down pricing. For now, the last spot price range of $1,100-$1,150/mt CFR holds.
Ammonia purchases by DAP producers are reportedly slacking off because the producers are pushing back against the pricing expectations of OCP for phos acid. The asking price of $2,000/mt CFR and higher is being countered by a directive from the Department of Fertilizer that it does not want to pay much higher than $1,600/mt CFR.
The combination of the high price for the acid, along with the current deadlock, is encouraging India to buy the finished DAP rather than the components – including ammonia – to make its own.
Middle East:
Sources said Ma’aden has a line-up for vessels for June to take away 150,000 mt of ammonia. Some of the deals are thought to be spot deals, but neither side is talking quantity or pricing.
At the same time, they have argued in some cases the transactions are related to older deals that should have occurred if the plant was operating last year as initially planned.Traders are convinced that some of the tons being shipped out of Ma’aden are replacement tons for swap deals made in 2021 while the plant was struggling to come online.
Producers are now reportedly talking about prices below $1,000/mt FOB. Some have reportedly said they would accept $960-$970/mt FOB. However, buyers who once said they could do a deal in the low-$900s/mt FOB are now bidding at sub-$900/mt FOB.Sources point to business in Taiwan in the $980-$990s/mt CFR as evidence that netback prices to the Arab Gulf need to be closer to $900/mt FOB and below to work.
Prices are expected to continue to come off as buyers in Southeast Asia reportedly step away from the market. Sources said the global economic slowdown has a number of factories in Southeast Asia cutting back on production and demand for ammonia.
Iranian exports for January-May 2022 were reported at 197,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is about 21% lower than the 251,000 mt exported during the same period in 2021. The main buyers during the first five months of the year were India with 164,000 mt and Taiwan with 23,000 mt.
May 2022 exports of 32,000 mt were about half of the 62,000 mt exported in May 2021. India took 30,000 mt last month, leaving little for smaller buyers.
North Africa:
Sources said OCP is pushing for lower prices as the rest of the fertilizer markets soften. Reportedly, OCP is now bidding at $900/mt CFR, while offers are over $1,000/mt CFR.
OCP and other North African phosphate producers are reportedly ready to cut back on DAP and MAP production in favor of TSP in order to nurse their ammonia supplies. Because TSP does not carry the ammonia requirements of MAP and DAP, the producers can still turn out a product while guaranteeing fulfillment of their contracts for the other flavors of phosphate products.
Northwest Europe:
There are reports that a cargo from Nutrien was sold to Eurochem for Antwerp. However, no quantity or price was part of the rumors, thus denying industry watchers a way to judge any shifts in the market.
Sources said the most likely price for the region is $1,000-$1,050/mt C&F based on calculations from prices of natural gas. The lack of any confirmable spot business, however, means that this price is just a best guess. The last public price of $1,200/mt C&F is considered no longer viable in the area, but no new prices have been confirmed.
Production in Europe is expected to continue, even with expensive natural gas. Sources said the buyers know that if the few operations in Europe shut down, the price would move even higher because of the immediate shortage that would take place. With threats of shortages, buyers seem reluctantly willing to pay at levels exceeding $1,000/mt C&F to avoid a return to prices well above $1,200/mt C&F.
South Korea:
Imports for January-May 2022 were reported at 634,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is up slightly from the 594,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main two suppliers so far this year were Indonesia with 302,000 mt and Saudi Arabia with 242,000 mt.
May 2022 imports were down to 106,000 mt from the 122,000 mt imported during May 2021.
Brazil:
Imports of ammonia into Brazil for January-May 2022 were reported at 197,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor. This is about 16% down from the 236,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main supplier was Trinidad, sending 167,000 mt. The remaining 30,000 mt was about equally split between sellers in Qatar and Argentina.
May 2022 imports were pegged at 74,000 mt, a significant jump from the 27,000 mt imported during May 2021. All the tons last month came from Trinidad.