U.S. Gulf:
NOLA potash barges were reported to have traded at $705/st FOB, down from the week-ago $715-$725/st FOB. Nutrien is offering NOLA equivalent barges at $735/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Nutrien on July 25 released a summer fill program for 3Q potash deliveries at $765/st FOB Midwest terminals and $735/st FOB NOLA for orders placed by close of business on Aug. 3. After that date, the company said the order book will close and new orders will be up $35/st for delivery in 4Q.
Nutrien reported “a good initial response to the program, with customers optimistic about a strong fall application season, supported by continued strength in agricultural commodity markets.”
Mosaic followed by posting potash fill tons at midweek at $760/st FOB river warehouse and $765/st FOB inland for 3Q shipments. “While we intend to keep this pricing program open at these levels through the end of day Aug. 3, prices are subject to change at any time,” the company told Green Markets. “Following conclusion of the program, we intend to raise our posted price by $35/st from current offer levels for remaining volume including 4Q.”
Western Cornbelt:
Potash fill pricing for 3Q tons was launched during the week at $760-$765/st FOB Midwest terminals for orders placed by Aug. 3. After that date, both Nutrien and Mosaic said pricing for new orders will be up $35/st.
The fill postings reflect the low end of the recent prompt pricing range in the region. Other industry sources, however, said river terminal tons were trading for as low as $740-$750/st FOB after the release of the fill program offers.
Intrepid confirmed late in the week that it is currently accepting potash fill orders on the basis of “summer fill values released in the market earlier this week.”
California:
Potash fill pricing in California was quoted at $875-$890/st FOB for 60% MOP and $895-$910/st FOB for 62%, with the upper end of the range reflecting a $35/st discount from the last confirmed high.
Pacific Northwest:
Potash fill pricing was pegged at $845-$865/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, with the low for 60% and the high for 62% MOP.
Western Canada:
Sources quoted newly launched fill pricing for potash in a wide C$990-$1,050/mt range FOB Saskatchewan mines for truck tons, depending on grade and supplier, below the last prompt offers at C$1,000-$1,080/mt FOB.
Belarus:
Belarus is heard to be going up from a little over 100,000 mt of potash shipments a month “to 200,000 mt or better,” ICL President and CEO Raviv Zoller told participants at a company earnings call on July 27. Zoller said about 250,000 mt a month is achievable through various small ports and rail to China, according to information ICL has seen.
Certainly, Belarus has remained a significant supplier to China, accounting for some 25% of that nation’s monthly potash imports in the first half of 2022, according to Trade Monitor Data. China imported 4.1 million mt during the first half of the year, down 11% from the same period last year.
Belarus has been forced to seek alternative export routes since Lithuania closed its territory to Belarusian cargo transits in January due to sanctions. Zoller said the expectation was that Belarus would be able to get about a third of its potash to the market without the Lithuanian transport link.
“But they are not there yet,” he said. “So our expectation is that 6-7 million mt will stay absent from the market.”
Not surprisingly, Zoller sees global potash inventory starting to tighten, becoming “very tight” in India and “getting tighter” in China. While he sees little in the way of potash demand destruction in Brazil, the company said it is seeing about 20% demand destruction in Europe.
Brazil:
The price for MOP deliveries dropped to $950-$1,000/mt CFR. Sources said buyers ready to take their tons right away are given prices at the lower end of the scale, while those looking for deliveries further afield are being told the price is higher. The holders of MOP seem desperate to clear out warehouse space, so they are willing to offer the lower prices for immediate shipment as an incentive.
Rondonópolis MOP is pegged at $1,030-$1,035/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Like their portside counterparts, holders of MOP inland seem anxious to move out MOP to make way for replacement tons. Buyers ready to take their tons right away are given price breaks.