U.S. Gulf:
New NOLA urea trades were reported in the $580-$620/st FOB range, up from the week-ago $465-$580/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Fueled by firming NOLA barge values, urea prices strengthened to $609-$640/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the previous week’s $560-$610/st FOB range, with the low confirmed early in the week at Ottawa, Ill. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was pegged at $620-$630/st FOB during the week.
Great Lakes sources pegged the Toledo, Ohio, urea market firmly at the $650/st FOB level for August-September tons. In the South Central region, new offers firmed to $640-$650/st FOB Memphis, Tenn.
Western Cornbelt:
A firming NOLA barge market pushed urea prices up to $610-$640/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. Pricing was also up at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., where sources quoted new offers at $620-$640/st FOB during the week.
Northern Plains:
Urea prices firmed to $630-$655/st FOB in the Northern Plains, with the low confirmed at St. Paul, Minn., and the high at Carrington, N.D. Lower prices were reported for delivered urea offers, however. Delivered urea pricing in North Dakota was quoted at $570-$595/st at midweek, down from the previous $610-$680/st DEL range.
In the Pacific Northwest, urea prices firmed another $30/st during the week, moving to $655/st FOB Rivergate, Ore.
Northeast:
Urea pricing was pegged at $615-$620/st FOB in the Northeast, with the high confirmed for August tons FOB Fairless Hills, Pa. Delivered urea was also quoted at the $620/st level in southern Pennsylvania in early August.
In the South, new pricing FOB Convent, La., was confirmed at the $600/st FOB level.
Eastern Canada:
The urea market in Eastern Canada was reported in a broad range at C$1,070-$1,250/mt FOB during the week, depending on location and supplier, down from the last C$1,180-$1,300/mt FOB range confirmed in mid-July.
India:
Sources said the urea market has gone quiet as IPL processes the paperwork necessary to handle the importation of 593,000 mt awarded in its recent tender
Sources said the country still needs 1-1.5 million mt of urea to finish off the current season properly. A new tender is expected soon after vessels are nominated to handle the tonnage awarded in the IPL tender.
Urea production in India will take a hit on news that the national natural gas distributor, GAIL, will be initiating rationing that will include urea plants. GAIL said its imports of natural gas have dropped because deliveries from Gazprom Marketing failed to appear. The cutbacks could make the need for a tender to import urea even more dire.
The Indian government recently released the January-May urea import numbers. Trade Data Monitor reported that India bought 3.9 million mt during the period, up from 2 million mt last year. Arab Gulf sources were responsible for sending 1.9 million mt this year, with another 978,000 mt coming from Russia and former Soviet states.
May 2022 imports were reported at 278,000 mt, down almost 60% from the 674,000 mt received by Indian buyers in May 2021.
Black Sea:
The estimated price out of the Black Sea has risen as talk continues of a stronger global urea market and as reports are that Russian material will soon be allowed to be shipped under a deal worked out by Turkey with Russia and Ukraine. Sources peg the price at $555-$630/mt FOB for product out of Black Sea ports.
Sources said while fertilizers have never been on any sanction list, banks and insurance companies remain nervous about covering any Russian product in case the sanction rules change and leave them stuck with costs that cannot be recovered.
Indonesia:
Sources said the availability of spare parts will determine how fast Kaltim V can come back online. The earliest the plant will be back up and running, said one trader, is the end of the year. Other sources said the opening could be pushed back as far as February 2023.
An explosion in late July shut down ammonia and urea operations at the plant. The closure withdraws about 100,000 mt/m of urea from the market. Sources said there is enough granular urea available for export to cover existing commitments to international traders. Once the reserves are gone, sources said the remaining production facilities will focus on the domestic market.
The lack of any new spot deals, and the likely absence of export tenders for the rest of the year, leaves export pricing up in the air. For now, sources said people are looking at the material being shipped and its price of $547/mt FOB as the basic price. Reportedly, some traders are circulating offers at $600/mt FOB for late-August and September shipment. Potential buyers are said to be hesitant because of a lack of confidence that the product will be available.
China:
Media in China reported that the urea inventory at Chinese ports is now 128,000 mt. This is above the July average of 108,000 mt, but well below a four-year average. International traders added that it is unclear how many of those tons are available for export.
Sources noted that some Chinese traders have moved tonnage to the ports in the hope of getting customs clearance for export. If the permission is denied, the tonnage moves back into the domestic market reserve-building program in China.
The actions by the traders were expected, said one international trader. While the domestic price remains around $375/mt FOB ex-factory, international offers are now touching on $500/mt FOB for prills. Sources said no new deals have been confirmed, leaving the posted price in the $470s/mt FOB. However, the discussions for any new deals are all past that level. Expectations for prices in the $490s/mt FOB are being felt across the board.
Granular urea, with the exception of the tonnage already approved for export, appears to be scarce for export. Reportedly, the government has made it clear to granular producers that their product needs to stay in the country, not only for direct application, but also for NPK production.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf producers remain busy fulfilling orders from the Indian tender and covering contracts. No new spot deals were confirmed, leaving the price steady at $545/mt FOB.
Egyptian sales have slowed down. After a furious week of price rises to $760/mt FOB, sources said the only confirmed deal this week was $765/mt FOB for 7,000 mt from Helwan to a European buyer for September shipment.
Rumors of $790/mt FOB deals also circulated, but sources said nothing has been done yet at this level. Traders expect to see $790/mt FOB within a week, however, to be quickly followed with deals at $800/mt FOB and up by the end of the month.
Brazil:
Urea prices in Brazil edged up, with deals reported at $660-$675/mt CFR. Rumors of pressure to hit $680/mt CFR circulated throughout the global urea market.
Sources said the lower end of the price range reportedly came from holders of urea liquidating their stockpiles to make room for new material. The tonnage at that price, said sources, was limited and likely to be exhausted quickly.
Reportedly, some buyers are holding off until the fourth-quarter demand for urea becomes clearer. As the agriculture numbers become public, buyers may begin taking positions for their needs. Once started, this move could signal more price increases.
The Rondonopolis price is pegged at $785-$820/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said some deals are being discussed at sub-$700/mt FOB, but they appear to be few and reflect holders liquidating their stocks to make room for new material.
Urea imports for January-July 2022 were reported at 3.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 8.7% from the 4.1 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. Oman topped the supplier list, sending 814,000 mt. Nigeria was second with 736,000 mt, followed by Qatar with 677,000 mt and Russia with 625,000 mt.
July 2022 imports were reported at 670,000 mt, up 5% from the 637,000 mt imported in July 2021. Russian urea accounted for 20% of the imports in May at 137,000 mt. Nigeria was a close second with 131,000 mt, accounting for 19.6% of the import market. Qatar sent 113,000 mt, Oman 125,000 mt, and Iran 99,000 mt.
Thailand:
Urea imports in Thailand for the first half of the year were reported at 948,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down from the 1.19 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. The top three suppliers – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Malaysia – accounted for 82% of all imports. Second-quarter 2022 imports were reported at 670,000 mt, down from last year’s 844,000 mt.
June 2022 imports were reported at 300,000 mt, down marginally from the 302,000 mt imported in June 2021.
Turkey:
Urea imports for the first six months of the year were reported at 1 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 30% from the 1.4 million mt imported during the first semester of 2021. Second-quarter 2022 imports were pegged at 477,000 mt, down from 675,000 mt during the same period in 2021.
June 2022 imports were reported at 181,000 mt, down from 206,000 mt in June 2021. Oman topped the list of suppliers with 73,000 mt, for 40% of the imported urea. Russia came in second with 51,000 mt, for another 28% of the market. This amount from Russia was its largest cargo to Turkey so far this year.
Combining the Russian urea with product from other countries along the Black Sea, the group accounted for 47% of all urea imports in Turkey during June.