Central Florida:
Posted DAP and MAP pricing in Central Florida was unchanged at $840/st FOB for DAP and $850/st FOB for MAP. Offer levels rumored closer to $800/st FOB during the week went unconfirmed on Aug. 4.
MAP trucks loading from North Florida continued to be posted at $890/st FOB, steady from the prior report.
U.S. Gulf:
Sources reported declining values for the NOLA DAP and MAP barge markets during the week.
DAP barges loading from NOLA were heard slipping from the week-ago $760/st FOB low to $755/st FOB, while sources described the top of the range at $770/st FOB, down from the prior $780/st FOB. Domestically produced DAP tons were offered at $810/st FOB, with no sales reported at that price.
MAP barges took a bigger step down, with traders reporting a $785/st FOB floor during the week, below the last $807/st FOB bottom. Price levels were reported up to $810/st FOB, shy of the $825/st FOB high described one week earlier. Barges of domestically produced MAP were reportedly offered at $850/st FOB.
The nearby DAP barge market was quoted in the $755-$770/st FOB range for the period, down from $760-$780/st FOB one week earlier. Sources pegged MAP levels at $785-$810/st FOB, a decline from the week-ago $807-$825/st FOB range.
U.S. Exports:
With no new business reported, the U.S. Gulf phosphate export market was unchanged at $910-$925/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP remained at $810-$840/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Illinois and the high in Ohio. The Cincinnati DAP market was quoted at $820/st FOB, while Great Lakes sources pegged the Toledo DAP market at $850/st FOB for August-September.
MAP was quoted at $860-$880/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati price reported at $865/st FOB in early August.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP was unchanged at $810-$845/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. MAP pricing was steady at $845-$870/st FOB in the region, with the low at St. Louis and the high reported in Iowa.
Northern Plains:
DAP pricing reportedly slipped to $810-$825/st FOB St. Paul, with MAP reported at $845-$860/st FOB at that location. Delivered green MAP in western North Dakota was pegged at the $890/st level for recent fill offers, down $30/st from mid-July.
Northeast:
The phosphate market FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, remained at $845/st for DAP and $885/st for MAP, with prompt MAP tons pegged at the $900/st level FOB Fairless Hills.
Eastern Canada:
MAP pricing in Eastern Canada was unchanged at C$1,325-$1,335/mt FOB in early August. The DAP market at Montreal was down C$25/mt, however, to C$1,315/mt FOB.
China:
Sources said rumors continue to circulate that Beijing will ban all DAP and MAP sales in 2023. However, these same sources said they expect the real order to include a ban on January-April sales, to be followed by limited exports for the rest of the year.
India:
Reportedly, the Department of Fertilizers (DoF) is talking directly with OCP about DAP needs for the rest of this year and into 2023. Bids are said to be at $850-$900/mt CFR, with OCP pushing back with $940-$950/mt CFR. The last public business was reported at $950-$960/mt CFR.
Sources said $900/mt CFR is most likely where the market is sitting today. Without any trades to test that price, however, the estimated price for DAP into India remains in the $920s/mt CFR.One trader said if the DoF and OCP cannot come to an agreement, Indian farmers may be short of DAP supplies.
The Indian government recently released its January-May DAP import numbers. Trade Data Monitor reported imports for the first five months of the year at 2.1 million mt, up from the 792,000 mt imported during the same period in 2021. The top exporters of DAP to India were Morocco with 540,000 mt, Saudi Arabia with 526,000 mt, and China with 495,000 mt.
May 2022 imports were reported at 218,000 mt, down a third from the 326,000 mt received in May 2021. Saudi Arabia with 88,000 mt, Russia with 66,000 mt, and China with 63,000 mt supplied about 99% of the imported DAP in May.
Brazil:
Low demand and oversupply are pushing MAP prices down in Brazil. Sources reported landed prices currently at $930-$950/mt CFR.
Rondonopolis is pegged at $1,050-$1,070/mt FOB ex-warehouse. This level represents a slight shift in pricing from the previous week, but sources said the move is not indicative of a trend in MAP pricing.
Sources said MAP sellers are beginning to get nervous about large inventories of product and possibly a decline in demand. Reportedly orders for the Brazilian summer season are already full, leaving fewer potential deals to be made. The perceived limited demand and growing inventories have sellers concerned that price could eventually go sub-$900/mt CFR at the ports.
January-July 2022 imports of MAP were reported at 2.7 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up 11% from the 2.5 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. Russia sent 1.2 million mt to Brazil so far this year, followed by Morocco with 821,000 mt.
July MAP imports were reported at 579,000 mt, a healthy increase over the 460,000 mt imported in July 2021. Russia with 209,000 mt and Morocco with 138,000 mt accounted for 60% of all imports. The U.S. sent 108,000 mt, or about 19% of the import market.