U.S. Gulf:
NOLA potash barges continued to be pressured. New prices were quoted at $685-$705/st FOB, down from the week-ago $705/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash fill for 3Q shipment was pegged at $740-$760/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported in Illinois and the high at Cincinnati. Producer postings in the $760-$765/st FOB range were set to expire on Aug. 3, with a $35/st increase scheduled for orders placed after that date. It was unclear, however, if the increase actually took effect.
Potash fill pricing in the Great Lakes region was pegged at $763-$770/st FOB Toledo for August-September shipment. One potash producer source on Aug. 4 reported a “good response” to the 3Q fill program, and said the company was “evaluating price levels for upcoming volume.”
Western Cornbelt:
While potash fill postings remained in the $760/st FOB range from producers, sources said some river terminal offers had reportedly dropped to as low as $720/st FOB St. Louis and $730/st FOB Catoosa, Okla., in early August.
Northern Plains:
Sources quoted potash fill pricing at $760-$765/st FOB and $770-$775/st rail-DEL in the Northern Plains. The latest prices FOB Saskatchewan mines were reported at $728-$740/st after netbacks, depending on grade and destination.
Northeast:
Potash fill pricing in the Northeast was pegged at $760/st FOB Fairless Hills, $765/st FOB East Liverpool, and $770/st FOB Baltimore, with rail-DEL tons quoted in the $780-$785/st range in the region. “From what I have heard, including ourselves, there’s not a lot of interest in potash at those values,” said one regional contact.
Eastern Canada:
The potash market in Eastern Canada remained at C$1,050-$1,056/mt FOB warehouses for fill pricing offers, unchanged from last confirmed prompt business in July. Sources said a price increase is scheduled for after the fill program order window closes.
Brazil:
The price of MOP in Brazil has come off to $920-$950/mt CFR as buyers look to take advantage of reports of large reserves. Suppliers are reportedly pushing back, but with little success. Sources are predicting sub-$900/mt CFR prices, but mostly for one-off trades or top-off tons.Rondonopolis showed a wider range at $1,035-$1,050/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
January-July 2022 imports of MOP were reported at 8.4 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, up dramatically from the 6.3 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. Canada shipped 3 million mt to Brazil so far this year. Russia was second with 2.3 million mt.
July imports were reported at 1.6 million mt, up 19% from the 1.3 million mt imported in July 2021.
India:
January-May 2022 MOP imports were reported by the Indian government at 1.3 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, up slightly from the 1.27 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. May 2022 imports were reported at 358,000 mt, more than double the 146,000 mt imported during May 2021.
Thailand:
Imports of MOP in Thailand for the first half of the year were reported at 492,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 4% from the 514,000 mt imported during the first semester of 2021. Second-quarter imports were reported at 322,000 mt, compared with 302,000 mt imported during the same three months in 2021.
June 2022 imports were pegged at 81,000 mt, up from the 74,000 mt brought in during June 2021.