US Gulf/Tampa:
With Tampa ammonia going up only $25/mt for October, to $1,175/mt CFR from September’s $1,150/mt CFR, the product appears to have lost some of its momentum. However, much can change before the conclusion of November business late this month.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The ammonia market reportedly edged up to $1,275-$1,300/st FOB for the last confirmed offers in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of Koch terminals in Illinois and the high FOB Lima, Ohio. CF has reportedly pulled its ammonia offers, with the last confirmed prices at the $1,300/st FOB level in Illinois and Indiana.
Western Cornbelt:
New ammonia offers in the Western Cornbelt were confirmed in the $1,250-$1,275/st range FOB terminals, up from the low-$1,200s/st at last report. The last price FOB Palmyra, Mo., was reported at the $1,225/st FOB level in September, but sources said no offers were on the table at that location in early October.
Northern Plains:
The latest ammonia offers in the Northern Plains were pegged at $1,200-$1,250/st FOB and $1,245-$1,300/st DEL, up from a broad $1,100-$1,200/st FOB and $1,150-$1,275/st DEL in mid-September.
India:
The price was pegged at $850-$890/mt CFR for smaller spot ammonia deals into India. However, sources said there may be a push for more ammonia, which could move up prices.
Reports that India has secured phos acid deals at $1,100-$1,200/mt CFR and is pushing for $1,000/mt CFR could mean the country might step up its DAP production. If that happens, said an ammonia trader, demand for ammonia will also pick up and put upward pressure on the price.
Middle East:
Sources said only contract tons are moving out of the area, leaving the ammonia price at $1,000-$1,100/mt FOB.
Just a month after it started production, sources said the new OQ ammonia plant shut down for unnamed reasons. Sources are inquiring about when the facility will be back online. The loss of the product from the 1,000 mt/d facility, if short-lived, is not expected to greatly affect market supplies or prices. The launch of the plant in the global market in early September provided extra tonnage in what sources said was already a surplus situation.
Sources said producers are looking to conclude more deals with buyers in Europe. The netback into Europe is better than the Southeast Asia market. Sources said the slow Asian market is leaving some producers with excess tons.
Reportedly, the Asian buyers are reluctantly accepting delivery of their contracted tons, but are asking for only the bare minimum in each shipment. Some buyers are requesting delays of their contracted tons. There are even reports of buyers trying to get out of their contracts.
The slow nature of the Southeast Asian market is causing concern among producers that a surplus could build. As a result, they are looking to other markets to quickly move the product out to maintain a supply/demand balance, along with a steady price.
Northwest Europe:
A sale of an Algerian cargo to Turkey at $1,200/mt FOB helped confirm steady pricing in Northwest Europe. Sources said prices in the area have been fluctuating in the $1,250-$1,310/mt CFR range, which fits with the Algerian sale.
Reportedly, the deals out of Antwerp are small quantities and on a hand-to-mouth basis. Buyers and sellers both seem reluctant to take a long position. Tonnage into the area remains steady, leaving little room for price increases. Sources point to arriving cargoes from Brazil, Trinidad, and Southeast Asia, as well as regular shipments from North Africa. Some cargoes from the Arab Gulf are also showing up.
Industry watchers are paying attention to talks within the European Union about subsidies for natural gas. Even with the discussed subsidies, sources said the production cost in Europe would be higher than the imported price. Sources are not even sure if the subsidies would be allowed for industrial use. One trader said the subsidies would most likely be directed at home heating during the winter.
Turkish buyers have reportedly stepped up their inquiries for material. Sellers from the Arab Gulf, Iran, and North Africa have all begun to take notice of the increased demand. An Algerian seller just closed a deal with Turkey at $1,200/mt FOB.
Turkey’s imports of ammonia for January-August were reported at 435,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 24% from the 569,000 mt imported during the same period of 2021.Two ammonia producers sent ammonia to Turkey for the first time in years. Bahrain sent 77,000 mt during the reporting period, and Saudi Arabia sent 54,000 mt.
Looking at the total for the first eight months of the year, Russia appears to be the dominant supplier with 162,000 mt. However, most of that material was shipped in the first quarter of the year, before the Russian-Ukraine pipeline was shut because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sources said reports of Russian material arriving in Turkey are most likely the last bit of material stored in warehouses in Yuzhnyy or Ventspils. Some of the material, such as the 9,000 mt reported arriving in August, could also be the last of the product that got recorded late.
Russian imports into Turkey for March-August 2022 were reported at 220,000 mt, compared with 296,000 mt during the same period in 2021.
August 2022 imports were reported at 43,000 mt, down 38% from the 68,000 mt received in August 2021. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain each sent 14,000 mt, giving each a 32% share of the import ammonia market in Turkey. Russia sent 9,000 mt, for 20% of the market. Sources said this tonnage will most likely be the last of Russian material received by Turkey until the war in Ukraine is settled.
Southeast Asia:
Sources are not sure what the impact will be, but Petronas declared a force majeure on its LNG shipments. The reason for the declaration is unknown, as is its potential impact on ammonia production in the area. For now, said one trader, people are just watching the situation closely.
Demand for ammonia in the area remains lackluster. Sources said in some cases buyers are asking their suppliers to send just the bare minimum required under their contracts. Some are also asking for a shipment to be skipped. And, according to unconfirmed rumors, some are even considering scrapping their contracts.
The slowdown of industrial production in the area has led to reduced demand for ammonia. At the same time, China has stepped up its exports of ammonia, providing regional buyers quicker access to a cheaper product.
Brazil:
Brazilian imports of ammonia have slowed down, while exports have picked up.
Imports of ammonia into Brazil for January-September 2022 were reported at 319,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 28% from the 445,000 mt imported during the first three quarters of 2021. The main supplier this year was Trinidad with 269,000 mt.
There were no September 2022 imports compared to the 9,000 mt imported during September 2021.Third-quarter imports were pegged at 79,000 mt, down 35% from the 123,000 mt received during the same period of 2021. Trinidad sent 61,000 mt and the US shipped 18,000 mt.
Exports of ammonia from Brazil for January-September 2022 jumped to 93,000 mt, up from the 17,000 mt during the same period in 2021. The exports so far this year are significantly higher than previous years. Trade Data Monitor figures showed that the amount of ammonia exported during 2017-2021 was 141,000 mt. Exports alone in 2022 are on track to exceed that five-year total.
The main buyers so far this year have been South Africa, taking 60,000 mt for 65% of the export market, while France took 12,000 mt and Spain took 10,000 mt.
Exports during the year have been sporadic. September 2022 exports of 44,000 mt represented the largest so far this year. Exports in February, April, and June ranged from 15,00-18,000 mt each month. The rest of the months had no exports, or tonnage below 100 mt.