US Gulf:
The NOLA urea barge range stretched to $590-$635/st FOB from the week-ago $600-$635/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea terminal prices remained under pressure, along with NOLA barge values. The market reportedly slipped to $675-$685/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from the prior week’s $680-$700/st range, with the low confirmed out of river terminals in Illinois and the high reported at Cincinnati, Ohio.
Urea pricing in the Great Lakes region was pegged at $730-$749/st FOB, with the low confirmed at Toledo, Ohio, for October-December tons and the high out of spot Michigan warehouses.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea pricing was reported at $670-$690/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo. Delivered offers were pegged at the $745-$755/st level in Iowa during the week.
Northern Plains:
Urea prices reportedly fell to $670-$685/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., while delivered tons in the North Dakota market were reported in the $750-$790/st range, depending on location. The last price at Carrington, N.D., was reported at the $710/st FOB level.
Northeast:
The latest urea offers in the Northeast were confirmed at $690/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., down from $730/st FOB in mid-September. In the South Central region, urea pricing at Convent, La., was pegged at the $670/st FOB level during the week.
Eastern Canada:
The urea market in Eastern Canada was reported at C$1,090-$1,120/mt FOB in early October, depending on location and supplier.
India:
The eyes of the urea world are once again turning to India. Sources said the paperwork process has started for IPL to call a tender as early as next week, but no one could nail down details.
India still needs 3 million mt to close out the current application season. Sources said the main issue will once again be availability of material. With limited Russian product available and even less Chinese urea, traders offering into the tender will be hard pressed to secure large quantities at low prices. In fact, the general consensus is that prices in the upcoming tender will be higher than the $668-$675/mt CFR paid in the last tender.
Pakistan:
Sources said the government is ready to grant TCP permission to import 300,000 mt. Some said the purchase will be a government-to-government deal, while others suggest TCP will likely call a public tender.
Recently TCP has gone the government-to-government route, which allows for price negotiations that include the full amount desired.
In the past, the rules of tenders out of Pakistan required TCP to take only the lowest offer. If that offer did not include the tonnage requested, TCP would keep calling tenders until the requirements were met. This often led to long delays in obtaining the necessary urea, and ever rising prices.
Pakistan media reported that a proposal sent to the government would give TCP temporary authority to run a urea tender in the same manner as the Indian buyers. The process would allow TCP to go to the offering companies to match the lowest price in the tender once it was accepted. The amended rules will include more provisions for transparency in the negotiations and acceptances, according to press reports.
Black Sea:
The estimated price of prilled urea dropped to $530-$555/mt FOB. Sources added some higher priced granular is also coming from ports on the far east of the Black Sea.
Urea imports by Turkey for January-August 2022 were reported at 1.5 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 17% from the 1.8 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers were Oman with 769,000 mt, Turkmenistan with 194,000 mt, Egypt with 156,000 mt, Russia with 146,000 mt, and Iran with 113,000 mt.
August 2022 imports were reported at 186,000 mt, down 17% from the 223,000 mt imported during August 2021. Oman sold 102,000 mt into Turkey, dominating the market with a 55% share. Turkmenistan sold 33,000 for an 18% share, followed by Russia with 32,000 mt for 17% of the import market.
Indonesia:
Sources said Pusri and Kaltim are looking to hold selling tenders soon. In the past, the Indonesian companies have issued the tenders right about the same time an Indian tender is called, often in the hopes of securing commitments for large quantities to be sold into India with a good netback.
Middle East:
The big news out of the region came from Egyptian buyers. The week opened with MOPCO announcing a sale of two lots of 10,000 mt at $710/mt FOB for late-October shipment. Within hours of that announcement, another cargo of 5,000 mt was sold at $715/mt FOB. This last sale reportedly closed the books on available October tonnage.
The next day, new sales from MOPCO, AQ, and AlexFert were reported at $750-$760/mt FOB for November shipment.All the deals were to traders. Sources said the purchases were most likely by traders taking position on product for later placement into Europe.
Arab Gulf producers continued to stay out of the spot market as they finished fulfilling their orders from the last Indian tender. Long-term contract tonnage also flowed out of the region.
China:
Sources said work was limited during the week because of the Oct. 1 Chinese National Day. Offices and factories are expected to resume normal schedules next week.
Brazil:
Urea prices in Brazil remain weak as supplies grow. Sources reported deals this week at $650-$660/mt CFR. The bearish market reportedly led some buyers to push for $640/mt CFR. There were even reports that urea from Iran or Venezuela – both sanctioned countries – was being offered at $600-$630/mt CFR. No takers were confirmed at the lower levels.
Downward pressure is expected to continue on pricing. Sources said the vessel lineup for the fourth quarter already shows about 1.2 million mt of urea booked and on its way to Brazil. The vessels coming in will most likely find ports still backed up and warehouses full as farmers remain hesitant to commit to large purchases.
Rondonopolis urea is pegged at $775-$840/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Buyers remain nervous about making a commitment to large purchases. Some want to wait until the grain price and fertilizer price ratios improve.
Urea imports for January-September 2022 were reported at 5.2 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down slightly from the 5.4 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. The top suppliers were Oman with 1.1 million mt, Qatar with 948,000 mt, Russia with 942,000 mt, and Nigeria with 916,000 mt.
September 2022 imports were reported at 760,000 mt, up 8% from the 706,000 mt imported during September 2021. The bulk of the imports – about 80% – came from four supplying countries:
| Supplying Country | Quantity (mt) | % Of Import Market |
| Oman | 197,000 | 26 |
| Russia | 159,000 | 21 |
| Qatar | 141,000 | 19 |
| Nigeria | 96,000 | 13 |
Third-quarter 2022 imports were reported at 2.1 million mt, up 12% from the 1.9 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. This boost in purchases is cited as causing the downward pressure on prices after end-users failed to step in and buy the product. Warehouses at the ports and inland are filled with urea purchased in July-September and looking for a home.