The Mississippi River and its tributaries are not out of the woods yet, as falling water levels threaten to deepen a crisis on the US’s main artery for moving vital products, according to Bloomberg.
While one bottleneck may have been eliminated on the Mississippi near Stack Island, Miss. (GM Oct. 7, p. 1), additional pressure points are emerging along the Mississippi’s more than 2,000 miles as the river falls into low stage, according to the National Weather Service.
As of Tuesday, in Memphis, Tenn., it had dropped nearly two feet since Saturday and is forecast to fall another two feet by Oct. 25, which would tie it for the third lowest on record. And now the Ohio River – which provides about 60% of the Lower Mississippi River’s water – is seeing closures at multiple locations due to groundings
In the Mound City, Mo., area alone – just north of Cairo, Ill., where the Ohio meets the Mississippi – the industry is working to refloat tows, according to the American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL). A dredge is in the area to cut a deeper channel, but is unable to assist until the currently-grounded tows are refloated, which may prove difficult amid unfavorable weather conditions. ACBL noted that downriver dredging at mile 681 was expected to close the river for 24 hours.
Across the US, 98 river gauges have fallen below the low water threshold, and most of those are on the Mississippi or its tributaries, according to the weather service.
“This is the worst we have seen the river in most of our careers,” said one fertilizer industry source. “It’s absolutely horrendous.”
“Low water like this, and how fast it hit, will be the stuff of legends,” said Margo Brock, Chief Operating Officer of shipping logistics firm Mercury Resources LLC.
However, overall the river isn’t in the worst shape it has ever been, said Jeff Graschel, a hydrologist at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center.
“We are getting water levels that are comparable to 2012,” Graschel said. “It is basically from the drought we have had in the Midwest over the summer.”
The impact this year will be greater than a decade ago as there’s so much more moving on the river now. And because barge capacity – due to channel depth and width limitations – has significantly decreased, there is an increased demand for barges, barge crews, and towboats to transport the 2022 harvest, according to Mike Steenhoek, Executive Director of the Soy Transportation Coalition. That puts added pressure on freight rates, which have soared 218% from a year ago for shipments originating from St. Louis, Mo.
The low water levels are occurring at a time when a major rail union raises the prospect of a railroad strike across the US, which could further choke the river movement (see related story).
Even so, there has not been an increase so far in rail traffic related to barge delays, according to Lee Klaskow, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
“The reason why products go on barges is that it’s much more economical and chances are the shipper and the receiver are on that waterway,” Klaskow said. “Getting that product onto the rails is not as easy as just snapping your finger and saying, ‘Oh I’m gonna call CSX and see if they could do it for me’ because there is a possibility that it might not be on a rail network.”
In recent times, the worst conditions were in 1988; while Graschel said the Mississippi isn’t there yet, it’s possible if things don’t improve.
In addition to the threat to traffic, the low water is allowing salt water to move upstream from the Gulf of Mexico. Many smaller communities south of New Orleans get drinking water from the Mississippi, and this threatens those supplies.
The Army Corps of Engineers is constructing barriers to keep the salt at bay, the first time it has had to do this since 2012.
Weather forecasts are not encouraging. As of Oct. 13, no rain was expected for most of the Midwest in the next seven days, the US Weather Prediction Center said. Northern Minnesota, parts of Wisconsin, Michigan, and most of Kentucky will likely get less than an inch of rain.