US Gulf:
NOLA urea barge prices dipped to $451-$485/st FOB, down from the week-ago $490-$520/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The urea market slipped again to $570-$590/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down $15-$20/st from the prior week, with the Cincinnati, Ohio, market pegged at $570-$580/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea pricing fell to $550-$580/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo., and the high in Iowa. The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., market was quoted at $550-$575/st FOB, down another $25/st from the previous week, while pricing at St. Paul, Minn., was pegged at $580-$610/st FOB.
California:
Although urea postings remained as high as $760/st FOB Stockton from some suppliers, sources said the market for new offers was closer to $725-$735/st FOB most port terminals in California. Rail-DEL offers were reported as low as $615-$635/st in Northern California.
Pacific Northwest:
Urea pricing in the Pacific Northwest slipped to $640/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., down from the last confirmed $675/st FOB level. The Aurora, Ore., price was quoted at the $645/st FOB level at midweek. Delivered urea pricing was pegged at $675-$725/st in the region, depending on location.
Western Canada:
New urea offers in Western Canada were reported at C$935-$1,005/mt FOB and C$965-$1,010/mt DEL, depending on location and time of shipment, down from mid-November pricing at the C$1,025-$1,060/mt FOB and $1,050-$1,060/mt DEL levels.
India:
Even as the paperwork from the NFL tender is still being processed, sources said they expect to see another tender call from India in the first half of December. The most likely company to call the tender is said to be RCF.
Sources said it makes sense for India to call another tender to ensure plentiful supplies for the next application season. With a shipping deadline of Dec. 22 from the NFL tender, sources said finding buyers for tons in late December and early January will be difficult, giving the Indian buyer an advantage to argue for even lower prices.
Complaints of urea shortages at local distributors prompted Indian government officials to go on the offensive. One trader said the push for a December tender might be tied to these complaints.
Pakistan:
The tender for 75,000 mt of granular urea closed on Dec. 1 with three companies participating. Swiss Singapore offered 33,000 mt at $551/mt CFR, Pacific International offered 40,000 mt at $599/mt CFR, and Keytrade offered 25,000 mt at $605/mt CFR.
Changes in the way TCP deals with tender offers now allow the company to use the lowest offer as a negotiating tool with the other offering companies to achieve their desired tonnage. In the past, TCP could only take the tonnage offered by the lowest offering company.
Some traders said they did not participate in the tender because of delivery requirements and payment procedures that could force the trader to ship the product before payment could be assured.
Sources estimated the Arab Gulf-equivalent netback from the Swiss Singapore offer at about $520/mt FOB, down significantly from the netback earned under the NFL tender. The landed price in Pakistan is about $20/mt below what NFL paid for its West Coast deliveries.
TCP is expected to at least take the 33,000 mt from Swiss Singapore. If they can convince Pacific International to lower its price, TCP will have achieved its goal of buying about 75,000 mt in an open tender.
TCP had earlier called a tender for 300,000 mt, but got no response. Eventually, the government authorized TCP to secure tons under government-to-government agreements. In the end, Pakistan will receive 125,000 mt from China and 35,000 mt from Azerbaijan under these arrangements.
Middle East:
Sources said discussions for January shipments are focusing on the $520s/mt FOB. This price fits with the equivalent netback from the lowest offer of $551/mt CFR in the TCP/Pakistan tender. So far, no sales from the area at this level have been confirmed, leaving the price at the level set under the NFL/India tender in the low-$550s/mt FOB.
Sources said producers are saying they are sold out through Dec. 22, the deadline for shipping material to India under the NFL tender. There are reports that excess tons will begin building up almost immediately, leaving producers looking for buyers at the end of December and into January.
Two sales out of Egypt by MOPCO tightened the market price. Sources reported the sale of 25,000 mt at $560/mt FOB and 5,000 mt at $565/mt FOB for December loadings. Both cargoes are said to be for European customers by traders covering shorts.
Iranian urea exports for January-October were reported at 4.2 million mt by Trade Data Monitor,up about 30% from the 3.2 million mt exported during the same period in 2021. The main buyers were Turkey at 1.5 million mt and South Africa at 491,000 mt.
October 2022 exports were reported at 473,000 mt, up 62% from the 291,000 mt exported during October 2021. Turkey bought 199,000 mt for 42% of the exports. South Africa took 64,000 mt for 14% of the exports.
Nepal:
A tender for 26,500 mt of granular urea will close on Dec. 11. The tender was called by STCL, with bagged material to be delivered to its warehouses. The price envelopes will be opened on Dec. 16.
Ethiopia:
An EABC tender for 500,000 mt of granular urea closed on Nov. 29. Sources said eight companies submitted offers, but two – including Dangote in its first direct entry in an EABC tender – were disqualified.
No prices or quantities offered by companies were made public by the time Green Markets went to press. The six companies that moved on to the next step in the tender are Midgulf International, ETG, Samsung, Fertiglobe, Bio Green, and Ethio Europe. The offers into the tender were reported to have all been on an FOB basis.
An earlier effort to secure 930,000 mt failed in September, with no awards issued for the tender. Sources said limited participation and high prices led to the lack of any action taken on that tender. The buyer moved from the tender process to seeking a government-to-government deal. In the end, EABC secured 200,000 mt from a Chinese producer.
China:
Producers remain in good shape for the limited exports allowed. Sources estimated that 250,000-300,000 mt will go to back offers in the NFL tender. An additional 125,000 mt was agreed to for Pakistan and 200,000 mt for Ethiopia under government-to-government deals.
Only the NFL tender results offered a glimpse of pricing. Sources put the netback to China at $550-$560/mt FOB. The government-to-government deals are more opaque, with little indication of settled prices.
Brazil:
Urea prices in Brazil have softened to $530-$550/mt CFR. Sources said the downward pressure is a result of lack of demand in other markets and a lack of liquidity in the Brazil market.
The price for product from sanctioned countries is lower, putting even more pressure on the main market. Sources said Venezuelan urea is reported at $530/mt CFR and Iranian product at $510/mt CFR. The bulk of the non-sanctioned urea seems to be in the $540s/mt CFR.
Rondonopolis urea prices came down a bit from the upper end of the price range, falling to $720-$725/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said low demand from farmers and local distributors is keeping a steady downward pressure on prices.
Argentina:
January-October urea imports were reported at 800,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about38% from the 1.3 million mt imported during the same period in 2021.
Each of the main suppliers in 2022 either sent marginal or no tonnage in 2021. Nigeria sent 145,000 mt in 2022, but only 10,000 mt during the first 10 months of 2021. Bolivia sent 130,000 mt, Turkmenistan sent 125,000 mt, and Indonesia sent another 100,000 mt. None of these three countries sent any urea to Argentina during this period in 2021.
October 2022 imports were down about 58%, to 77,000 mt from 182,000 mt sent in October 2021. Indonesia and Oman accounted for about two-thirds of the imports, sending 31,000 mt and 20,000 mt respectively.
Thailand:
Imports of urea for January-October were reported at 1.7 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down about 20% from the 2.1 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. Saudi Arabia sent 677,000 mt, Qatar sent 369,000 mt, and Malaysia sent 363,000 mt.
October 2022 imports were reported at 132,000 mt, down from the 211,000 mt imported during October 2021. Saudi Arabia accounted for 61% of the imported urea with 79,000 mt.
Sources said the dominance of Saudi Arabia in Thailand is not surprising. They noted that there has been a long commercial relationship between the Saudi urea industry and Thai buyers that has provided for lower landed prices for the Saudi product.