US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia for December continued at $1,030/mt CFR, down $120/mt CFR from November’s $1,150/mt CFR.
US Imports:
Ammonia imports for July-September firmed 2.7% from the year-ago, according to data compiled by the US Census Bureau, to 643,611 st from 626,665 st. September imports rose 11.2%, to 225,095 st from 202,351 st.
US Exports:
Ammonia exports for September were counted at 122,655 st, up 178.4% from the year-ago 44,065 st. July-September shipments firmed 209.0%, to 419,122 st from 135,626 st in the prior year.
Eastern Cornbelt:
The first round of spring prepay programs in the Eastern Cornbelt saw ammonia prices falling $150-$200/st from the last confirmed prompt business.
Koch was reportedly first out of the gate on Dec. 13, offering prepay ammonia at $1,110/st FOB most Midwest terminals, with CF following at $1,100/st FOB Illinois and Indiana terminals. Koch then matched CF’s Illinois price, with the exception of Wood River, Ill., which remained at $1,110/st FOB. Nutrien posted $1,095/st for prepay ammonia FOB Lima, Ohio.
Western Cornbelt:
Spring prepay prices for ammonia on Dec. 13 included $1,100/st FOB Palmyra, Mo., $1,070/st FOB in Iowa, and $1,060/st FOB in Nebraska. In the Northern Plains, prepay ammonia pricing was reported at $1,160/st FOB Glenwood, Minn., Velva, N.D., and Grand Forks, N.D., and $1,110/st FOB Murdock, Minn.
There were reports as well of ammonia winter fill pricing offers from CF on Dec. 13 that included $1,035/st FOB in Nebraska, $1,050/st FOB in Iowa, and $1,100/st FOB in North Dakota and Minnesota.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia prepay/fill offers on Dec. 13 included $875/st FOB Woodward, Okla., and Borger, Texas, $900/st FOB Pryor, Okla., and $950/st FOB Verdigris, Okla., well below the last prompt fall business in the $1,100-$1,175/st FOB range. Truck pricing FOB Beaumont, Texas, was reported at the $980/st FOB level at midweek.
South Central:
The latest truck offers for ammonia out of Gulf Coast terminals dropped to the $980-$1,000/st FOB range for new business, down from $1,050-$1,080/st FOB in November.
Black Sea:
A Bulgarian buyer will reportedly take delivery of the last remaining Russian tons stored in Estonia for export. The government-to-government deal will move about 35,000 mt to Varna.
Sources said the Bulgarian government will pay the Estonian government, which will then pass on the funds to EuroChem, the original owner of the ammonia. The reported price was said to be sub-$900/mt CFR, significantly below the current estimated market price. A deal earlier this month into Turkey was pegged at $1,000/mt CFR.
Sources said the transaction will reduce existing demand in the market, with one source speculating that the lower demand could result in softer international ammonia prices.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Bulgaria has shifted its intake of ammonia from Black Sea sources to Egypt, Trinidad and Tobago, and the Arab Gulf. Last year, Bulgaria imported a total of 223,000 mt of ammonia, according to Trade Data Monitor. The country is on track to import a similar amount this year, but with only half the Ukrainian and Russian imports compared to 2021.
The former owner of Uralchem went on a publicity offensive to promote the idea of opening the ammonia pipeline from Russia to Odessa. The idea of restarting the pipeline is being pushed by the United Nations and Russia to get Russian ammonia back into the global economy.
Sources said the effort does not consider Russian bombing, not only in areas where the pipeline exists, but also targeting supporting infrastructure in Ukraine, such as the electricity grid. Without electricity, said one international trader, the pipeline cannot work, nor could vessels be loaded in Odessa. Sources said the main goal in pushing for reactivation of the pipeline is to draw in more hard currency for the Russian government.
India:
Long-term contracts and formula-based deals seem to account for the bulk of the ammonia coming into India. Much of this product is from Arab Gulf producers at rates well below estimated spot prices.
The spot tons reaching India appear to be from less-traditional locations such as China and producers in Southeast Asia, with the current landed price pegged at $850-$860/mt CFR. Even as buyers are able to secure most of the tons they need at this price, sources said efforts to get Arab Gulf producers to match that level still appear to be failing. The producers are reportedly asking at least $900/mt CFR before any talks can proceed.
Imports of ammonia for January-October were reported at 1.8 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 11% from 2 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. The main suppliers were Saudi Arabia with 756,000 mt, Qatar with 321,000 mt, and 217,000 mt sent by Indonesia.
October imports were reported at 218,000 mt, up about 12% from 194,000 mt received in October 2021. Saudi Arabia and Indonesia combined for roughly 48% of imports, sending 53,000 mt each. Qatar and Bahrain shipped 39,000 mt and 38,000 mt, respectively, while Malaysia rounded out India’s five largest suppliers with 30,000 mt, good for 14% of the import market.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf producers continue to tell potential buyers they are short on product for December and January. Sources said that while the rest of this month might indeed be fully booked, there are strong indications that some cargoes are available for January and possibly February purchases.
The main issue seems not to be the availability of product, but the price. Producers are holding out for prices closer to $900/mt FOB, while buyers are looking at levels closer to $800/mt FOB. The current estimated spot price of $850-$880/mt FOB came from calculating back an Arab Gulf-equivalent price from an early-December deal into Turkey valued at $1,000/mt CFR.
Some producers in the region are telling traders they will be taking routine turnarounds in January and February. So far, sources said Qatar and Saudi Arabia seem to be on the list of producers preparing to shut down for at least 30 days. Other producers are expected to follow suit.
Lithuania:
Nitrogen fertilizer maker Achema plans to suspend ammonia production on Monday, Dec. 19, due to higher natural gas prices, according to the news portal Delfi, citing the ELTA news agency, which learned the information from Achema. The company had not responded to inquiries at press time.
Northwest Europe:
The price remained stable at $1,050/mt CFR. Imports still seem to be the market’s determining factor, as high production costs due to rising natural gas prices are preventing European producers from competing.
Sources expect demand for ammonia to ease as industries begin scheduling holiday breaks at the end of the year. The slack market is anticipated to remain well into January.
The last of Russian export material held in a Baltic country storage facility has reportedly been sold. Sources said Bulgaria and Estonia reached an agreement to ship about 35,000 mt to Varna in a government-to-government deal. The EuroChem ammonia was reportedly placed into an Estonian storage facility soon after Russia invaded Ukraine. Buyers’ subsequent reluctance to take any Russian material – as well as the embargoes imposed on that product by individual Baltic states – left the tons in market limbo until now.
The final deal seems to have Bulgaria paying Estonia, which will then pay EuroChem for the product at a severe discount. The landed price is reportedly under $900/mt CFR at a time when prices in the southern Black Sea are closer to $1,000/mt CFR.
Malaysia:
Exports of ammonia for January-October were reported at 337,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, off23% from the year-ago 438,000 mt. Thailand led buyers with 200,000 mt, followed by India with 45,000 mt, and South Korea with 30,000 mt. October exports were counted at 5,000 mt, compared to 52,000 mt in October 2021. Thailand took 4,900 mt of the exports.
Malaysian tons totaling 30,000 mt reportedly received by India in October contrasted against Malaysia’s stated 5,000 mt export total for the month. The discrepancy was attributed to the time lag between when a product leaves the exporting port, versus when it arrives in the receiving port.
Brazil:
Reports that Unigel has been approaching international traders to handle exports were seen as a stabilizing move. Sources said the company is looking to export 15,000 mt every 90 days.
Unigel has occasionally exported ammonia as it becomes available, sources said. Brazil has shipped 63,000 mt offshore so far this year, according to Trade Data Monitor, with Koch most recently reportedpicking up a cargo for shipment to Morocco. In the past, Trammo and Yara have also handled the Brazilian exported ammonia. Traders said the tonnage will never be enough to move the market, but will be able to provide relief to buyers looking to top off large cargoes.