US Gulf/Tampa:
The industry awaits word on the Tampa ammonia price for January, and whether downward momentum for the December price will continue into the new year. December was $1,030/mt CFR, off $120/mt CFR from November’s $1,150/mt CFR.
US Imports:
October ammonia imports totaled 131,732 st, according to US Census Bureau data, off 42.7 from the year-ago 229,777 st. July-October volumes were counted at 775,343 st, a 9.5% decrease from the year-ago 856,442 st.
US Exports:
October ammonia exports moved up 64.3%, to 63,646 st from the prior-year 38,744 st. July-October exports firmed 176.9%, to 482,768 st from the previous 174,370 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prepay prices remained at $1,095-$1,110/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low at Lima, Ohio, and the high at Wood River, Ill. Most Illinois and Indiana terminals were at the $1,100/st FOB level for prepay ammonia.
Some sources said the prepay programs were seeing only a small amount of business, however. “Until they see some dollars from the farmer, no one is too eager to commit to spring tons at this point,” said one regional contact.
Western Cornbelt:
Spring prepay offers for ammonia remained in the $1,050-$1,100/st FOB range in the region, with the low in Nebraska and the high at Palmyra, Mo. Iowa terminals were reported in the $1,060-$1,070/st FOB range, while prepay offers in the Northern Plains included $1,160/st FOB Glenwood, Minn., Velva, N.D., and Grand Forks, N.D., and $1,110/st FOB Murdock, Minn.
Prepay ammonia pricing in the Southern Plains was steady at $950/st FOB Verdigris, Okla., $900/st FOB Pryor, Okla., and $850/st FOB Woodward, Okla.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia postings in California remained at $1,250/st DEL. The aqua ammonia market firmed to $326-$336/st FOB, with the low reported at Stockton and the high at Sycamore.
Pacific Northwest:
New pricing for ammonia was reported at $1,000/st DEL and $950/st FOB Washington terminals, well below the last $1,335-$1,350/st FOB and $1,350/st DEL prompt offers. Aqua ammonia pricing plunged to $275/st FOB in the region, down from $345/st FOB.
Western Canada:
Spring prepay pricing for anhydrous ammonia was pegged in a broad C$1,475-$1,725/mt DEL range in the region, depending on location and supplier, up from the last fill pricing offers in the C$1,350-$1,595/mt DEL range. Prepay ammonia in Saskatchewan was quoted at the C$1,640/mt DEL level at midweek.
Northwest Europe:
Market players have shown limited interest in making new deals during the year-end period. As a result, the price remained at $1,050/mt CFR.
Changes may come in the new year, however, following the announcement by the European Union that it is removing all duties on imported ammonia and urea. Sources said they were unsure how it will all play out, but seemed to be anticipating more imports.
One trader noted the move could lead to the price being set by Trinidad and Tobago, which has already enjoyed duty-free entry to the EU. Other suppliers, such as those from the Arab Gulf, will no longer face duties as high as 6%. The change could provide those producers a better netback because they will no longer have to compensate for the import tax.
The steady growth in natural gas prices in Europe has led more ammonia producers to cut back or stop production. The resulting loss of domestic ammonia has created a stronger market for imports.
South Korea:
Ammonia imports for January-November were reported at 1.19 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, a5% drop from 1.25 million mt imported during the same period in 2021. The market’s main suppliers were Saudi Arabia with 524,000 mt, followed by Indonesia with 510,000 mt.
November imports were reported at 66,000 mt, down about 25% from 89,000 mt imported in November 2021. Indonesia accounted for 38% the market with 25,000 mt, while Saudi Arabia sold 21,000 mt, representing 32% of the import market. Australia rounded out the top three with 20,000 mt.
China:
Imports of ammonia continued to fall, while exports picked up. January-November imports were reported at 216,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor, off72% from the year-ago 775,000 mt. Indonesia dominated the imports with 120,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia with 55,000 mt.
Exports for January-November showed a steady increase, however, rising to 201,000 mt for period compared to 2,000 mt in the prior year. India took 41% of the exports, receiving 82,000 mt.
November imports were reported at 21,000 mt, down slightly from the 25,000 mt purchased in November 2021. November exports were up dramatically year-over-year, however, rising to 75,000 mt from 129 mt in November 2021. India and Turkey accounted for slightly more than half of purchases, buying 20,000 mt and 19,000 mt, respectively.