US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia prices for January continued at $975/mt CFR, down $55/mt from December’s $1,030/mt.
US Imports:
November ammonia imports were recorded at 175,150 st, according to the US Census Bureau, falling 31.3% from the year-ago 254,775 st. July-November volumes were noted at 950,493 st, a 14.5% decrease from the year-ago 1.11 million st.
US Exports:
Ammonia exports were up 1,698.2% in November, to 107,196 st from 5,961 st in the prior November. July-November exports firmed 227.2%, to 589,964 st from the year-ago 180,331 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prepay prices remained at $1,095-$1,110/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low at Lima, Ohio. Most Illinois and Indiana terminals were reported at the $1,100/st FOB level for prepay offers in early January.
Sources reported mixed results on year-end business. “We had a good fall. We expected it to eat into prepay and it did,” said one contact. “Prepay has been nonexistent, very quiet.”
Another source described year-end business as good. “I think tax implications played a big part in those numbers at year-end for several growers,” he said. “I think these markets are still going to need a few weeks to find flooring to shore them up, as I believe there are a lot of purchases to be made yet by dealers.”
Western Cornbelt:
Spring prepay offers for ammonia were unchanged at $1,050-$1,100/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high at Palmyra, Mo. Iowa terminals were reported in the $1,060-$1,070/st FOB range.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia prepay offers remained at $875/st FOB Woodward, Okla., and Borger, Texas, $900/st FOB Pryor, Okla., and $950/st FOB Verdigris, Okla. Prompt truck pricing FOB Beaumont, Texas, was reported at the $880/st FOB level, with some application taking place in areas where field conditions are favorable.
South Central:
In the wake of the Tampa January ammonia price drop, truck offers for ammonia out of Gulf Coast terminals fell to $880-$980/st FOB, depending on location.
Black Sea:
Reports circulated that Turkey was bidding for product at $810-$820/mt CFR. Even with reports of softer prices heard across the board, sources said the price was too low for the current market.
Despite repeated efforts by the United Nations and Russian companies, no ammonia is coming out of the Black Sea. Material bought by Turkey is being originating from a multitude of locations, including the Caribbean, North Africa, and Southeast Asia.
India:
Buyers of spot ammonia continue to look beyond the Arab Gulf, while contract buyers are receiving product that was purchased earlier. Spot buyers seem to be keeping their focus on getting supplies from China and Southeast Asia producers.
Sources reported no new deals that would move the price from the previously reported $850-$860/mt CFR.
Middle East:
Producers were still said to be asking $900/mt FOB for spot material. They continued to be countered by ever-lower bids from buyers. Sources are not sure how long Arab Gulf producers will be able to hold on to their higher pricing ideas. Turkish buyers are bidding at low prices for material around the world. At the same time, there are reports of European prices coming off.
The closure of an OMIFCO ammonia-urea line for 25 days was not expected to impact the market. Sources noted that the ammonia from the plant is used in the same facility for urea production and is not for export.
January-November ammonia exports from Iran were reported at 490,000 mt by Trade Data Monitor,a 5% drop from 517,000 mt shipped during the same period in 2021. Iran’s main buyer was India, taking 411,000 mt.
November exports were reported at 71,000 mt, up from 43,000 mt in November 2021. India received 95% of the exports, taking 67,000 mt.
Northwest Europe:
Late-week rumors indicated new deals were reached at $990/mt CFR. No names of buyers or sellers were reported, leaving the lower pricing unconfirmed.
A drop in pricing has been expected as European natural gas prices first stabilized, then started to come down. Based on the price of gas, sources estimated the new production cost of ammonia at sub-$800/mt ex-plant.
Brazil:
Trade Data Monitor reported 2022 ammonia imports at 445,000 mt, down about 17% from 534,000 mt imported in 2021. Trinidad and Tobago remained the market’s main supplier, sending 366,000 mt. The US was the second largest supplier with 34,000 mt, while Qatar and Argentina each sent 15,000 mt. The US, Qatar, and Argentina sent zero ammonia to Brazil in 2021.
December imports were reported at 58,000 mt, nearly double the 30,000 mt noted for December 2021. Trinidad and Tobago accounted for 75% of the imports with 44,000 mt, followed by the US with 14,000 mt. Fourth-quarter imports were reported at 126,000 mt, up 41% from 89,000 mt received in the same period of 2021.
Brazil stepped up ammonia exports in 2022, shipping 99,000 mt compared to the year-ago 36,000 mt. South Africa was the largest buyer with 38,000 mt, followed by 18,000 mt purchased by Morocco. Spain took 15,000 mt.
Sources previously said they were not surprised by the buying interest from Europe and Morocco. The Brazilian tons were offered at favorable rates, and buyers were looking for material to replace the Black Sea tonnage made unavailable by the war in Ukraine.