US Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa anhydrous ammonia price for February tumbled to $790/mt CFR, down some $185/mt CFR, or 19%, from January’s $975/mt CFR. A significant drop had been expected due to the much lower natural gas prices in Europe, which spurred more domestic ammonia production, thus requiring less ammonia from the international market.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prepay remained at $1,095-$1,110/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Lima, Ohio. Most Illinois and Indiana terminals were unchanged at the $1,100/st FOB mark for prepay tons.
Western Cornbelt:
Spring prepay offers for ammonia were unchanged at $1,050-$1,100/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low in Nebraska and the high at Palmyra, Mo. Iowa terminals were reported in the $1,060-$1,070/st FOB range in late January.
Northern Plains:
Spring prepay ammonia pricing reportedly dropped to $1,050-$1,100/st FOB in the Northern Plains, down from earlier offers in the $1,100-$1,160/st FOB range, with the low reported at Velva, N.D. Delivered ammonia was pegged at the $1,100/st FOB mark in North Dakota, with little spring buying taking place.
China:
Reduced domestic Chinese demand for ammonia during the last half of 2022 led to a decrease in ammonia imports and an increase in exports for the year. Trade Data Monitor reported 2022 imports at 231,000 mt, down 71% from 809,000 mt imported in 2021. Indonesia was China’s main supplier with 135,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia with 55,000 mt.
China exported 238,000 mt of ammonia in 2022, compared to just 2,000 mt in 2021. January-June exports totaled 17,000 mt, while second-half exports jumped to 222,000 mt.
The Chinese ammonia was offered at a discount to that of the Arab Gulf, leading many buyers to switch. India was the primary recipient with 94,000 mt, snagging about 44% of the total exports. Turkey followed with 27,000 mt, good for 12% of sales.
Sources speculated that exports may come off in 2023 as global ammonia prices soften. The main benefit of the Chinese product was its lower price compared to tons originating from the Arab Gulf and Southeast Asia.
December imports were reported at 15,000 mt, off 55% from the year-ago 34,000 mt. December exports were pegged at 37,000 mt, compared to 111 mt recorded in December 2021.
India:
Contract tons continue to comprise the bulk of imports, although spot importers were able to take advantage of lower ammonia prices from China in the last half of 2022. Sources said that the $850-$860/mt CFR spot price paid for Chinese product at the time nearly matched the prices from earlier contracts with Arab Gulf producers.
January-November imports were reported at 2 million mt by Trade Data Monitor, down 9% from 2.2 million mt imported through January-November 2021. Saudi Arabia led the pack with 825,000 mt, more than double the year-ago 396,000 mt, followed by Qatar, Indonesia, and Bahrain. China sent 69,000 mt during the period, up from 11 mt in January-November 2021.
November imports stood at 191,000 mt, rising 6% year-over-year from 180,000 mt. Saudi Arabia took 36% of the import market with 68,000 mt, off from 76,000 mt in November 2021, while China sent 33,000 mt. China sent zero ammonia to India in both November 2020 and November 2021.
Italy:
There have been reports that Yara is set to restart production at its Ferrara, Italy, plants at the end of this month. Ferrara has the capacity to produce 600,000 mt/y of ammonia and 600,000 million mt/y of urea, according to the company.
A Yara spokesperson was unable to comment to Green Markets on the reports, given that the company currently is in a “silent period” ahead of its fourth-quarter results publication on Feb. 8. The spokesperson reiterated that Yara “continuously monitors and adapts” to market conditions, adding that the company will provide an update in its upcoming fourth-quarter results. Yara is understood to have a total European regional ammonia capacity of 4.8 million mt/y (GM Oct. 21, 2022).
Lithuania:
Nitrogen fertilizer producer AB Achema plans to resume ammonia production in early February, according to a report by Fertilizer Daily, citing a company spokesperson. The company suspended ammonia production on Dec. 19 due to increased natural gas prices, although it continued to produce ammonium nitrate (GM Dec. 16, 2022). Achema had not responded to GM inquiries by press time.
The Jonava-based producer has 1.1 million mt/y of ammonia production capacity, and its nitrogen fertilizer production capacities include 1.3 million mt/y for ammonium nitrate, according to the Green Markets database.