US Gulf:
NOLA urea barges were put in the $302-$325/st FOB range. Early-week trades were noted in the $302-$315/st FOB range, with late week business reported as high as $325/st FOB. This compares to the week-ago $300-$340/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea remained under pressure in early February. Sources pegged the Eastern Cornbelt urea market at $370-$405/st FOB, down another $10/st from last week, with the Cincinnati, Ohio, market reported in the $380-$390/st FOB range.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea dropped to $360-$400/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis, Mo., market quoted at the $360-$370/st FOB level, down $10/st from the previous week. The Port Neal, Iowa, market was also reported at $370/st FOB at midweek.
Northern Plains:
Urea terminal prices continued to fall, with new offers in the Northern Plains reported at $360-$370/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., for river-open tons, $440/st FOB Carrington, N.D., for 2Q shipment, and $480-$500/st DEL for spring tons in North Dakota. Those prices were down from the previous $390-$400/st FOB St. Paul, $515/st FOB Carrington, and $520-$545/st DEL levels.
Northeast:
The urea market slipped to $395/st FOB East Liverpool, Ohio, $425-$430/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., and $430-$450/st FOB Baltimore, Md., down from the previous range of $460-$500/st FOB in the Northeast.
Eastern Canada:
Urea pricing dropped to a wide C$880-$1,020/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, depending on location and supplier, down C$25/mt at the low end of the range.
India:
The week closed with rising expectations that a urea tender will be called soon. Sources reported that officials at the Department of Fertilizers (DoF) had scheduled a meeting for Friday, Feb. 17, to finalize the paperwork for a tender.
Sources said the tender could be called as early as immediately after the meeting, or more likely, over the weekend. IPL will reportedly handle the tender, and will be looking to book 1-1.5 million mt delivered in March and April. Some sources speculated the tender would be handled by RCF, citing rumored problems between IPL and the DoF.
Earlier reports had the Indian government pushing the tender back until April, in what some traders called an effort to keep prices down. By the end of the week, however, sources said the DoF would be looking for a longer shipping period that would include April deliveries.
Normally, Indian tenders have a 4-6 week delivery window. If the reports out of India are accurate, the tender could have a 90-day delivery period. Sources said the extended period would give companies more flexibility in their offers, while also limiting upward pressure on urea pricing.
Even as the DoF moves ahead with a traditional urea tender, sources said that some discussions are still taking place related to the IPL tender that closed earlier in February, for a long-term commitment to supply 600,000 mt. The IPL tender was an unusual move that was designed to ensure a steady supply of urea without overheating the market. Only one producer was reported to participate in the tender.
The Indian government is stepping up its plan to increase production of Nano Urea (Liquid). The liquid fertilizer, sold in 500 ml bottles, was heralded by the government as a viable alternative to traditional urea applications. The product provides nitrogen directly to the crop plant instead of only being absorbed through the soil. The patent for Nano Urea is held by IFFCO.
Two new Nano Urea-producing IFFCO plants were dedicated in mid-February. The government is promoting the product because it will cost less than standard urea and will have less impact on the soil.
Critics question the value of the product, which carries 4% nitrogen content compared to the 26% in standard urea. IFFCO said that because the Nano Urea is absorbed directly into the plant instead of through the root system, the lower nitrogen content will not detract from the efficiency of the product to support sustained crop growth.
Indonesia:
Pupuk closed a tender for prilled and granular urea. Liven took two cargoes of 6,000 mt each of prilled urea at $367/mt FOB. Nitron took 45,000 mt of granular urea at $348.88/mt FOB.
The tender was the first of 2023 in the market. Sources were expecting Pupuk to delay a tender call until after India made its call.
Middle East:
Sources put the price out of the Arab Gulf in the upper-$330s/mt FOB. Traders could not point to any specific sales at that level, but noted that all discussions for product were at $335-$340/mt FOB.
The March paper market for Arab Gulf material was pegged at $310-$320/mt FOB. The April price was put at $325-$335/mt FOB, and at $320-$335/mt FOB for May.
No new sales were reported from Egypt, although traders said that early-week discussions indicated prices around $380/mt FOB. Sources said the $380/mt FOB price fits with both the steady slide in prices and with reported Arab Gulf price levels.
The paper market for Egypt showed a significant drop in pricing. The price for March was reported at $325-$335/mt FOB. April paper was pegged at $330-$340/mt FOB, with May at $330-$345/mt FOB.
China:
Sources reported sub-$400/mt FOB prices at China. Traders said discussions are at $380-$390/mt FOB for the limited tons being made available for export.
Even with domestic inventories at a reported five-year high, sources said they do not expect to see much urea coming out of China in the next couple of months. The government is expected to maintain its tight hold on exports to ensure lower prices and high inventories for the domestic market.
Black Sea:
The estimated price for prilled urea came down to $320/mt FOB. The fall was in line with price drops from other major urea producing areas.
Brazil:
The landed price came off to $320-$340/mt CFR. The drop in pricing was not surprising, as the softening followed price drops from around the world. Material from sanctioned countries is being offered at $320/mt CFR.
The price in Rondonopolis was reported at $550-$560/mt FOB ex-warehouse, down about $30/mt from the previous week. Rumors that India was close to issuing its urea tender prompted some players to halt negotiations until the impact of the tender could be assessed.
The March paper market, reported in a $320-$345/mt CFR range, predicted a further slide in prices. By April, however, prices are expected to rebound. April paper was reported at $330-$345/mt CFR, followed by $340-$350/mt CFR for May, and a high price of $365/mt CFR for June.