US Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia price remains under pressure, with sources anticipating another drop for April after the $200/mt plunge for March, to $590/mt CFR from February’s $790/mt CFR. Lower natural gas prices continue to be cited.
NOLA barge prices were also under pressure, with buyers saying they can do better than the current $535/st FOB. Some cited levels in the low-$400s/st FOB for new business, though no actual transactions or specific prices were confirmed.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia producers dropped prices once again in the Eastern Cornbelt on March 7-8. Sources said both Koch and CF lowered prices to $725/st FOB terminals in Illinois and Indiana, down from $840-$850/st FOB, with new offers at East Dubuque, Ill., also falling to the $725/st FOB level. The latest prices in Ohio were reported in the $740-$750/st FOB range at midweek.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices in the Western Cornbelt moved down again during the week, with no movement to the field reported. “Some guys are on the cusp, but the weather isn’t promising for the next two weeks,” said one southern Iowa source. “There are a lot of people who need to buy tons once it does go.”
Ammonia prices were quoted at $670-$710/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down from $725-$840/st FOB, with the low reported at Beatrice, Neb., and the high at Marshalltown, Iowa. Other terminal prices at midweek included $685/st FOB Sergeant Bluff, Iowa, and Palmyra, Mo., and $700/st FOB Iowa terminals at Garner, Fort Dodge, and Washington.
In the Southern Plains, new ammonia offers out of Oklahoma production points slipped to $585-$600/st FOB, down from $610-$625/st FOB, with the Coffeyville, Kan., market quoted at the $610/st FOB mark for new business.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia prices dropped to $670-$700/st FOB terminals in the Northern Plains in early March, depending on location, down significantly from the $840-$850/st FOB range reported in mid-February. Delivered pricing was pegged at $750-$775/st in the region, below the previous $850-$870/st DEL level.
Black Sea:
Sources said the ammonia sold to a Turkish buyer earlier in the month came from Qatar at a reported $520/mt CFR. Earlier reports showed a price about $30/mt higher, with sourcing from either Iran or North Africa. One trader said the price into Turkey translates to about $420/mt FOB from the Arab Gulf.
Limited business in the area has made nailing down prices into Turkey more difficult. Sources said the slowdown in demand is being experienced around the world, leaving traders with fewer data points for potential spot deals.
Ammonia import numbers for Turkey were released during the week. According to Trade Data Monitor, Turkish buyers imported 113,000 mt in January, up 36% from the 83,000 mt reported for January 2022. Oman sent 35,000 mt, followed by Bahrain with 23,000 mt. Libya sent 21,000 mt.
Russian media stepped up reporting of the new TOAZ port being built on the Tamar peninsula. According to the Russian company, work on the port will allow for 2 million mt/y of ammonia to be shipped out. Further enhancements to the facility, to be done in 2024 and 2025, will each increase the capacity by 1.5 million mt/y, for a total capacity of 5 million mt/y. Sources said that some of the existing facilities designed to handle natural gas will be restructured to deal with ammonia.
European sources continue to cast doubts that the facility will become operational in the time frame set by the company. Traders noted that besides having to improve the jetty facilities and build storage tanks to handle large quantities of ammonia, the basic rail infrastructure leading into the port will require a great deal of work.
Russia is pushing for the quick completion of the port so it can resume exporting ammonia. No Russian ammonia has passed through the Black Sea since the Togliatti-Odessa pipeline was closed due to the war in Ukraine.
India:
Prices remained steady, but only because buyers appeared to take a break. Sources said demand into India is slow because many of the DAP producers are taking routine maintenance turnarounds at their facilities. Production is expected to resume in April.
Middle East:
The netback to the Arab Gulf from a sale into Turkey was reported at $420-$425/mt FOB. This, said one source, represents a sizable drop in the price out of the Arab Gulf, but one that fits with estimates on the way the market has been moving.
Producers have been reluctant to discuss pricing as the global ammonia market began softening. Sources said that some producers only serviced their long-term contracts and stayed away from potential spot deals to avoid setting a new price for the market.
Even with the new lower price for the spot market from the region, sources said there is still a lot of room available for a further drop in pricing. Steady buyers from Asia were said to be holding off taking tons under their contracts until the last minute. They were also said to be pushing for lower prices for the contracted tons.
January-February exports from Iran totaled 98,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, up 40% from the year-ago 71,000 mt. India was the primary buyer, taking 95,000 mt. February exports were 77,000 mt, up from 51,000 mt in February 2022.
Northwest Europe:
Sources said the lack of new spot deals makes pegging the market price difficult. By all rights, said one trader, the price should be lower than the posted $600-$620/mt CFR, noting that production costs are going down – as are ammonia prices – in the rest of the world. For now, sources said, the price is unchanged.
Thailand:
Trade Data Monitor reported January ammonia imports at 46,000 mt, up from the year-ago 8,400 mt. Malaysia sent 29,000 mt, representing 62% of the imports, while China added 14,000 mt.
Brazil:
Exports for January-February were 33,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported.The US was the largest buyer of Brazilian ammonia, taking 18,000 mt, followed by South Africa with 15,000 mt.
January-February imports totaled 38,000 mt, with all of the tons coming from Trinidad and Tobago.February imports were reported at 23,000 mt, up 36% year-over-year from 17,000 mt.