US Gulf:
NOLA barge prices continued to weaken and were called $360-$370/st FOB, down from $360-$375/st FOB.
US Imports:
Potash imports fell 16.4% for July-January, to 6.60 million st from 7.90 million st in the prior-year period. Imports moved 2.5% higher in January, however, to 1.02 million st from the year-ago 996,724 st.
July-January imports from Canada stood at 5.67 million st, ahead of Russia’s 627,512 st. Israel sent 250,511 st. The Census Bureau recently announced revised potash import numbers for the August 2021-August 2022 period.
US Exports:
Potash exports firmed 21.4% in January, to 309,338 st from the prior-year 254,730 st. Exports were counted at 1.94 million st for July-January, however, 21.1% below the year-ago 2.45 million st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Potash was unchanged at $425-$430/st Cincinnati and $430/st FOB Ottawa, with inland warehouse pricing reported in the $440-$460/st FOB range.
Western Cornbelt:
Potash terminal prices were pegged in a broad range at $415-$465/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis market slipping to $415-$425/st FOB for the latest offers, down $5/st from the previous week.
Southern Plains:
The potash market slipped to $415-$440/st FOB in the Southern Plains, down from the prior $430-$445/st FOB range, with the low reported at Houston and the high at Catoosa/Inola. The last potash postings from Intrepid FOB Carlsbad, N.M., included $515/st for 60% white granular and $525/st for 62% white standard.
South Central:
Potash was pegged at $435-$455/st FOB in the South Central region, with most Arkansas terminals reported at the $440/st FOB level.
Southeast:
The potash market was unchanged at $440-$450/st FOB Wilmington, with rail-DEL pricing in the Southeast pegged in the $470-$490/st range.
India:
Despite ongoing speculation that an agreement is imminent, a new potash supply contract to India remained unsettled on March 16.
Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson estimated an India contract price of $445-$460/mt CFR, Bloomberg reported on March 13. The assessment was based on the estimated $445/mt midpoint of the implied Chinese contract, itself derived from spot market data from Southeast Asia, the Russian/Chinese border, and the domestic China price. Other market watchers have suggested the new Indian contract supply settlement could be agreed up to $480/mt CFR.
India settled the 2022 annual supply contract at $590/mt CFR with 180 days credit.
Brazil:
Prices for potash widened as aggressive buyers pushed the lower end of the range to $440-$470/mt CFR. Russian product was said to account for the new, lower pricing. Traders believe a potash price floor is rapidly approaching.
The Rondonopolis price tightened to $570-$585/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sources said the lower price appeared to be attached to material from Belarus.