US Gulf/Tampa:
Citing both plentiful ammonia supplies and low natural gas prices in Europe and the US, most sources expected a significant drop for Tampa ammonia in April. March was $590/mt CFR, down from February’s $790/mt CFR.
In the meantime, NOLA buyers said they have not waited for a fall at Tampa. NOLA barges were reported to have traded in the $480-$490/st FOB range, while others heard reports in the low $400s/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Some preplant ammonia was reportedly being applied in southern Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee early in the week, but wet conditions continued to limit fieldwork in the rest of the Eastern Cornbelt.
“We are very wet, with heavy rain in the forecast,” commented one Illinois source at midweek. “Nothing is moving, and nothing is being bought.”
The last “official” prices for ammonia remained at $725-$750/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low in Illinois and Indiana and the high at Lima, Ohio. One contact, however, described it as a “call and make an offer if you are a serious buyer” market, with “reasonable offers” in the mid-$600s/st FOB likely being considered for new business.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia remained at $670-$710/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at Beatrice, Neb., and the high at Marshalltown, Iowa. Other terminal prices included $685/st FOB Sergeant Bluff, Iowa, and Palmyra, Mo., and $700/st FOB Iowa terminals at Garner, Fort Dodge, and Washington.
Some sources speculated, however, that a serious buyer could secure ammonia in the $625-$650/st FOB range without much trouble, though there was no actual business to confirm those levels.
California:
The anhydrous ammonia market remained at $980/st DEL in California, but aqua ammonia pricing was down $22/st from late February, to $237/st FOB Stockton and $247/st FOB Sycamore. “This pricing is set for the season,” said one source.
Pacific Northwest:
New offers for ammonia were reported at $710-$730/st DEL, below the previous $730-$775/st DEL range. Pricing out of Washington terminals remained at the $730/st FOB level in late March. Aqua ammonia was steady at $190/st FOB in the region.
Western Canada:
No current prices were confirmed for ammonia in Western Canada during the week. The last offers for spring ammonia in early March were reported at C$1,100-$1,300/mt FOB for April-June shipments, depending on location.
India:
Actual spot deals were non-existent, leaving the estimated spot price in the $450s/mt CFR. Sources said ammonia purchased under long-term contracts continues to flow in as needed. However, the demand for spot product is down while several DAP producers continue to keep plants closed for routine maintenance turnrounds.
Sources said when buyers inquire about spot tons, their price ideas are usually close to $400/mt CFR. So far, producers have not accepted pricing this low. One trader said, however, that given the current state of the global ammonia market, it will not be long before that price is achieved.
January ammonia imports were counted at 205,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported,a 71% jump from 120,000 mt in January 2022. The largest suppliers were Saudi Arabi with 102,000 mt, Bahrain with 53,000 mt, and Indonesia with 31,000 mt.
Middle East:
A lack of business in the spot market kept the Arab Gulf price in the $370s/mt FOB. The push from Indian buyers for prices closer to $400/mt CFR could lead to a netback of $350/mt FOB.
Northwest Europe:
The slowdown in the rest of the international ammonia markets was reflected in the lack of deals in Europe. The price in the area remains in the $450s/mt CFR.
The takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS is not expected to have a major impact on trading in Europe. Sources said the only companies that might have issues would be those that have their own internal problems, ones that would crop up while doing business with any bank.
One trader said that he does not expect to see a major shake-up in the areas of the bank that affect lines of credit for trading houses. Instead, the bank’s investment arm is most likely to see changes during the next six months.
China:
China is exporting more ammonia than it is importing, although sources said this may begin to change as ammonia prices fall. Softer global prices will offer fewer opportunities for Chinese ammonia producers and traders to sell to the world.
Once China stops shipping ammonia offshore, sources said the tons will probably be sent to domestic buyers instead, taking those buyers out of the global market.
January-February ammonia exports were reported at 103,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, up from the year-ago 254 mt.Imports for the period totaled 56,000 mt, down 11% year-over-year from 62,000 mt.
February imports were 31,000 mt, compared to 16,000 mt imported in February 2022.
February exports were reported at 52,000 mt, against 98 mt shipped out during the same month in 2022. Turkey was the market’s largest buyer with 24,000 mt, followed by India with 11,000 mt.