US Gulf:
NOLA barge trades were put in the $305-$327/st FOB range, narrowing from the week-ago $300-$335/st FOB. While early-week business suggested an increase for the week, $305-$310/st FOB trades reported later in the week lowered the average.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea was unchanged at $370-$390/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the high out of inland terminals and the low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio, and out of Illinois River terminals.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea was quoted at $365-$390/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up slightly from last week, with the St. Louis, Mo., market pegged in the $365-$380/st FOB range. In the Northern Plains, the St. Paul, Minn., urea market edged up to $365-$385/st FOB with delivered tons reported in the $450-$470/st range in North Dakota.
California:
While reference pricing for bulk urea at Stockton, Calif., remained at the $650/st FOB mark, sources said $600/st FOB deals were possible at the port. Northern California sources reported recent rail-DEL urea offers at the $500/st level.
Pacific Northwest:
Urea was under pressure in the Pacific Northwest. The latest offers FOB Rivergate, Ore., were pegged at the $460/st FOB level, down from $500/st FOB, with the Aurora, Ore., price reported at $465/st FOB. Rail-DEL pricing was quoted in the $450-$475/st range, with the high in Montana.
Western Canada:
Urea pricing in Western Canada slipped to C$630-$640/mt FOB and C$670-$680/mt DEL, down from the last-confirmed C$640-$720/mt FOB and C$665-$730/mt DEL ranges.
India:
Conflicting rumors circulated about when the next urea tender might take place. India’s fertilizer minister said the country will not need to buy urea on the spot market for the upcoming Kharif season, leading some to question if a new tender would even be held.
A few traders argued that it would make sense for India to call a tender in April to take advantage of the softening market. However, the bulk of sources said that by waiting until the end of May, when many had previously expected the next tender, India could push the price down even further.
The announcement by the fertilizer minister caused some concern. The minister told reporters that India had sufficient stockpiles on hand, and that with the anticipated volume of local production the country could handle the expected demand for urea and other nutrients until at least November.
The reserves the minister was counting on included the 1.1 million mt secured in the last tender, none of which has yet been delivered to India. He was also including contracted cargoes, such as the deal with OMIFCO to supply about 1 million mt/year in monthly shipments, in his tally.
India imported a total of 10 million mt of urea during 2022, according to Trade Data Monitor. Even with the higher prices the country was forced to pay due both to the war in Ukraine and China’s restrictions on exports, the total was higher than in 2021.
| Calendar-Year India Urea Imports mt | ||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
| 7,086,084 | 5,945,111 | 5,465,686 | 11,196,083 | 11,152,615 | 8,112,989 | 10,101,039 |
In a separate announcement, government officials told local media that while less money was allocated for fertilizer subsidies in the upcoming fiscal-year budget, the government will not raise the price of subsidized urea. The price will remain at Rs242 per 45-kg bag ($65/mt).
Trade Data Monitor put January imports at 1.35 million mt, a roughly 35% increase from the year-ago 967,000 mt. China led suppliers with 254,000 mt, followed by Oman with 236,000 mt. Russia sent 173,000 mt, while an additional 153,000 mt was recorded coming from Finland. Sources speculated that the Finnish tons represented Russian material transported through Finland.
Black Sea:
Sources in Asia estimated the price of Russian urea out of the Black Sea at $265-$270/mt FOB.
Indonesia:
The Pupuk/Kaltim tender from mid-March ended with bids for granular urea at $315-$330/mt FOB. In the end, however, the final sales came at $342/mt FOB, matching the bids for prilled urea.
Sources said a $315/mt FOB bid from Samsung only applied to a small volume of top-off tons, while Kaltim was reportedly more interested in moving at least 30,000 mt. When the producer sent out counters to the bids, sources said the company skipped over Samsung and went straight to Aries, which had bid $331/mt FOB for 30,000 mt. Kaltim used the high prilled bid of $342/mt FOB as its floor for the granular product.
At least one cargo was purchased at $342/mt FOB, only a slight drop from the previous sale at $349/mt FOB. Sources also reported four cargoes of prilled urea secured at $342/mt FOB. All of the tonnage was slated to ship in April.
Middle East:
Sources reported prices out of the Arab Gulf at $300-$305/mt FOB on deals signed by Oman.
Players expected the Arab Gulf price to keep falling after India made clear that it would buy just 1.1 million mt in its recent tender, as the market had been expecting India to take 1.5-2 million mt. Because of the Indian action, the market’s psychology has shifted to expect building reserves and few buyers.
There are reports that some cargoes from the Arab Gulf are heading to China. The product, said one source, is most likely for re-export. With a landed price of $340/mt FOB, the material is too expensive for the Indian tender, but within the market range for buyers in Southeast Asia. The landed price is lower than the current estimated price for Chinese product exports, and dramatically lower than the Chinese domestic price.
Egyptian producers are reportedly ready to accept $350/mt FOB for their product. Sources said the lack of buying interest out of Europe and a generally soft global market gives producers no other choice but to come down from their higher-pricing ideas. If the expected price is achieved, it would represent a drop of $20-$25/mt from the last-done business out of Egypt.
Sources reported that Algerian producers were also ready to accept the $350/mt FOB price, confirming the softer prices from North Africa.
China:
Sources reported the domestic China market at $410-$415/mt ex-plant. At the same time, traders are quoting export prices at $370-$380/mt FOB.
The current pricing in China will exclude any Chinese product from supporting awards from the Indian urea tender. Going into the tender, sources were expecting to see at least a couple of cargoes from China in the offerings. The only sales coming out of China are reportedly small lots to regional buyers.
China is reluctant to export urea while the domestic season is still in full swing. Sources estimate the season will end in late April. At that point, said one trader, the excess urea built up by the government’s restrictive export policy will exert a great deal of downward pressure on prices.
Sources reported that material from the Arab Gulf is heading to China for $340/mt CFR. The material is expected to be re-exported to cover the demand of regional Southeast Asian buyers. These shipments are in addition to the Russian cargoes reported en route to China earlier in March.
January-February urea exports totaled 407,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 72% increase from the year-ago 237,000 mt.
February 2023 exports were 166,000 mt, up 9% from 152,000 mt exported in February 2022. Mexico received 47,000 mt, South Korea bought 29,000 mt, and Chile took another 22,000 mt.
Brazil:
Traders keep saying the price floor has been hit. At the same time, the price keeps falling. Sources reported a slight dip to $310-$320/mt CFR, a price that some players said looks close to a positive barter ratio, which could lead to additional deals being cut in the near future.
The Rondonopolis price was down to $460-$490/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Weak buying demand provided a steady downward push on prices, and sources reported a strong reluctance to buy any material until absolutely needed. Buyers are reportedly unwilling to close any long-term deals because of an underlying expectation that the price will continue to drift downward.
The upper end of the Rondonopolis price range is tied to financing long-term purchases, such as those for September-November deliveries. The lower end of the range came from aggressive buyers looking to procure tons for immediate delivery.
Poland:
Grupa Azoty on March 17 reduced prices on nitrogen and compound fertilizers sold through its authorized distribution network, “adjusting them to the current market conditions,” the company said. Azoty did not disclose the size of the reduction, only describing prices as “significantly lower.”
The company previously reduced prices by 20-30% on Feb. 1 (GM Feb. 3, p. 4). Azoty also cut prices by about Pln1,000/mt ($231/mt) last October.