US Gulf:
With spring demand picking up steam and barge availability becoming an issue, sources reported rapidly firming NOLA urea prices during the week.
Barge trades were reported in a wide $318-$355/st FOB range for first-half April, up from last week’s $295-$312/st FOB. The week began with trades at $318-$320/st FOB before firming to $320-$328/st FOB on April 4 and $330/st FOB on April 5. By April 6, new NOLA business was confirmed at $350-$355/st FOB for loaded barges, with reports of first-half May offers at $335/st FOB.
Rumors of April business at the $357/st FOB level late in the week were unconfirmed, as were reports of early-week trades as low as $305-$315/st FOB.
“The market has a very healthy amount of buyers and sellers,” commented one industry contact. “Freight seems to be the hot topic, in that empty barges are extremely tight. Getting rides is even slower than normal for loaded barges across all products.”
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea was unchanged at $370-$390/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location. The Cincinnati, Ohio, market was pegged at $370-$385/st FOB, with Ottawa, Ill., offers reported at the $390/st FOB mark.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea inched up to $365-$395/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo., and the high in Iowa. Sources said tightening supply in western Iowa and Missouri, along with a favorable 10-day forecast, could push prices higher in the near term.
Southern Plains:
Urea prices were moving up in the Southern Plains, fueled by tight supply and a firming NOLA barge market. The Catoosa/Inola, Okla., market had reportedly firmed to $405-$415/st FOB, with pricing at Enid, Okla., quoted at the $420/st FOB level. The low end of the regional market was pegged at $395/st FOB Houston, Texas.
South Central:
Urea slipped to $355-$390/st FOB in the South Central region, with the low confirmed at Convent, La., and the high at Little Rock, Ark. The Memphis, Tenn., urea market was pegged in the $380-$385/st FOB range, down $5/st from last report.
Southeast:
Urea pricing out of port terminals in the Southeast remained at $400-$405/st FOB in early April. In the Northeast, new offers FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., reportedly jumped to $430/st FOB for April-May shipment, up from last week’s $405-$410/st FOB range.
India:
Expectations have not changed as to when the next urea tender will be called. Sources remain firm in their belief that nothing will happen until the last two weeks of May, after vessels are nominated for all of the tonnage awarded in the previous tender.
Two more ships in the Arab Gulf were said to be loading cargo awarded in the last tender.
Black Sea:
Asian sources pegged the Black Sea prilled urea price at $250/mt FOB. Other sources said the market showed only minor fluctuations from the previous week and remained in the upper $260s/mt FOB. One source noted the drop into the $250s/mt FOB would make sense because of the general global decline in urea prices, putting the market range at $250-$270/mt FOB.
Sources said Turkish buyers are now looking to pay $305-$310/mt CFR for April material, a drop from $340/mt CFR paid for Iranian urea in March.
Iranian material imported by Turkey in January-February totaled 13,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, falling from the prior-year 46,000 mt. Turkey imported 148,000 mt of Iranian urea in 2022, while worldwide imports totaled 1.6 million mt.
January-February urea imports to Turkey were 556,000 mt, firming 64% from 339,000 mt recorded through the first two months of 2022. February imports stood at 258,000 mt, up 55% from the year-ago 160,000 mt. Oman sent 54,000 mt for the month.
Indonesia:
Pupuk closed a selling tender for 30,000-45,000 mt of granular urea. Initial reports showed the highest bid at $312/mt FOB for 6,000 mt, while the top bid for 30,000 mt was reported at $305/mt FOB. Immediately following the close of the tender, sources said Pupuk went into private talks. The final price now appears to be $318/mt FOB.
Pupuk’s March selling tender ended up with a price of $342/mt FOB. Sources said the lower price in the latest tender reflects not only a softer global urea market, but also a falling domestic market in Indonesia.
Trade Data Monitor put January-February urea exports at 100 mt, down from the year-ago 5,600 mt. Sources noted that most exports from Indonesia do not begin until the domestic season winds down in mid-to-late March.
Southeast Asia:
Urea prices took a pounding in Asia. Sources reported sales into South Korea below $340/mt FOB for April material, down from March deals cut at $365/mt CFR. Sources added that bids are now in the $330s/mt CFR, and will most likely be accepted.
Thailand urea imports totaled 195,000 mt for January-February, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 75% year-over-year increase from 111,000 mt.
February imports were logged at 133,000 mt, up from 80,000 received in February 2022. The main suppliers were Malaysia with 57,000 mt, Saudi Arabia with 50,000 mt, and Qatar with 18,000 mt.
Middle East:
Traders noted sales at $295/mt FOB. At the same time, others are now putting the low end of the market at $292/mt FOB, but without any hard business to cite. The price has been moving down steadily since the close of the Indian urea tender in March. Sources now put the price at $295-$305/mt FOB, with no one really interested in offers above $300/mt FOB.
Sources said producers are sold out for April and first-half May. Arab Gulf producers will end up being the main suppliers of the 1.1 million mt awarded in the March Indian tender. For now, sources said that no one is going long, especially while prices keep falling.
In Egypt, MOPCO sold a total of 30,000 mt in a variety of small lots to buyers in Turkey and Europe. The price was reported at $330-$335/mt FOB, a serious drop from $375-$380/mt FOB achieved in March. Sources reported that new bids are coming in at $310/mt FOB, with buyers walking away if producers balk at that price.
China:
Sources said the estimated price for exported urea remains in the $370s/mt FOB. At this level, said one trader, no one will be approaching any producer for tons, given the continuing softness of the global urea market.
As if to make a point that Chinese producers are not interested in any international sales, sources said they have been told by producers that bids under $350/mt FOB will not be entertained. One trader noted that in order for Chinese product to be competitive in the current market, it would have to be under $300/mt FOB.
Brazil:
Prices dropped to $295-$310/mt CFR, in line with the general softness of the global urea market. Sources noted that an uptick in NOLA pricing prompted sellers to dig in their heels at the upper end of the price range. At the same time, buyers looked at the softening prices elsewhere and began to draw the line for a deal at the lower end of the range.
The Rondonopolis price dropped on the lower end. Sources now put the inland price at $430-$460/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
Ethiopia:
Trade Data Monitor put January-March imports at 105,000 mt, rising from 107 mt in first-quarter 2022. Most large shipments of urea normally arrive at Ethiopia in the second quarter of the year.
March imports – all from Egypt – were reported at 50,000 mt. March 2022 imports were pegged at 104 mt.