US Gulf/Tampa:
The April Tampa ammonia price remained at $435/mt CFR, down from March’s $590/mt CFR. Ammonia barges were quoted at the $395/st FOB NOLA level for limited business, though some speculated that sub-$395/st FOB deals could be had. Truck offers out of Gulf Coast terminals were quoted in the $400-$435/st FOB range.
US Imports:
February ammonia imports firmed 4.9%, according to data released by the US Census Bureau, to 180,371 st from the year-ago 171,872 st. Totals stood at 1.53 million st through the July-February fertilizer year-to-date, however, off 11.0% from 1.72 million st.
US Exports:
February ammonia exports were reported at 63,710 st, a 65.9% increase from the year-ago 38,411 st. Exports firmed to 893,299 st for July-February, up 256.5% from the year-ago 250,607 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia was rolling hard in the Eastern Cornbelt during the week, with truck availability becoming a major issue as the week progressed. “There’s plenty of product, but we can’t get enough trucks,” reported one source on April 13.
Ammonia pricing remained in the $575-$600/st FOB range in the region, with the low confirmed in Illinois and the high in Indiana and at Lima, Ohio.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices were steady in the $500-$525/st FOB range in Nebraska and Iowa, with Oklahoma production points remaining at $500-$515/st FOB, depending on location. Preplant applications were in full swing across the region during the week.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia pricing dropped to $890/st DEL in California as of March 16, with aqua ammonia postings reported at $237/st FOB Stockton and $247/st FOB Sycamore.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia pricing out of Washington terminals remained at the $730/st FOB level for recent offers, with delivered tons pegged in the $710-$730/st range. Aqua ammonia was steady at $190/st FOB in the region.
Western Canada:
Current spring ammonia offers were quoted in a broad range at C$850-$1,150/mt FOB production terminals in Western Canada, depending on location and supplier. The last delivered ammonia prices were reported at C$1,100-$1,300/mt in the region.
Black Sea:
Exports of ammonia from the region remain nil. The Russian government continues to use the potential restart of exports as a condition to extend the grain export agreement brokered by Turkey.
International traders said that reinstituting exports from the region would require restarting the pipeline to Odessa. Sources said this action would be dangerous, as the pipeline runs through a war zone that is subject to regular bombings by Russia.
The region’s main ammonia activity comes from imports by Turkey in the southern end of the Black Sea. The latest deals, reported earlier in the month, involved product originating from Iran in the $340s/mt CFR.
Northwest Europe:
Sources estimated the Northwest Europe price in the $380s/mt CFR, a dramatic difference from the reported cost of ammonia production in Europe of around $450/mt ex-plant. International traders said the gap in pricing will continue to encourage buyers to focus on the import market instead of buying any European ammonia.
Prices of imported ammonia are expected to sink as the global market price softens. The cheaper imports, said sources, are leading European producers to produce just enough ammonia to cover their commitments for other products, while leaving the higher-priced ammonia out of the discussion.
Middle East:
Sources said the lack of worldwide demand is causing reserves to build up in Arab Gulf producers’ storage facilities. Due to the weak demand, sources said the estimated price continues to fall. The latest estimate was pegged at $260-$270/mt FOB.
Traders pointed to a sale into China around $340/mt CFR, for a netback to the Arab Gulf of $260-$270/mt FOB. Producers argued the price should be closer to $350/mt FOB, but no one is willing to conclude a deal at that level. Some sources have said the price out of the Arab Gulf could be as low as $250/mt FOB, but the consensus seems to be in the $260s/mt FOB.
Producers are reportedly making regular calls to potential buyers looking to move product on a prompt basis. For now, sources said that most demand is being covered by contracts. The only new movement comes from sales to China.
If the price keeps dropping, sources expect that more Indian buyers may come forward looking to secure tons at the bottom of the market. The problem, said one trader, is that no one is really sure where the floor is.
India:
No new spot deals were reported. Tons contracted earlier in the year continue to be loaded for shipment to India, but at prices higher than where the current spot market is estimated.
The market’s last spot deal was reported months ago in the $450s/mt CFR. Sources now say the price is in the $350s/mt CFR, with most buyers pushing for $300/mt CFR.
To back up pricing in the $350s/mt CFR, sources pointed to a late-March deal by OQ Trading into India with Arab Gulf material at $350/mt CFR. Information about the transaction has been slowly percolating through the industry since the deal was struck.
Major buyers, such as DAP producers, are said to be getting ready to start making some large purchases as their plants return from routine maintenance shutdowns, although they seem to be waiting while smaller buyers test the market. Even as the Arab Gulf producers continue to claim prices should be at $350/mt FOB, some buyers in India are pushing back, calling for a price closer to $300/mt CFR, equating to an Arab Gulf netback in the $250s/mt FOB.
East Asia:
The main activity in East Asia comes from Chinese purchases, where sources reported deals in the $330s/mt CFR this week for Arab Gulf material. At this level, sources said, Indonesian ammonia is not competitive.
Indonesian producers reportedly need a price of $350/mt FOB ex-Indonesian plant to break even on production costs. At the same time, if the price gets too high – a level sources put at $400/mt CFR China – Chinese buyers will turn to satisfying their needs with domestic product, and even return to the export market.
After making too many large purchases during the economic downturn, the market’s normal movers Taiwan and South Korea are slowly coming back to the market, sources said.
Brazil:
Imports for the first quarter of 2023 totaled 82,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, down about 22% from the year-ago 106,000 mt. March imports were noted at 44,000 mt, off by about one-third from 65,000 mt imported in March 2022.
Brazil has begun to export a steady, albeit small, supply of ammonia, according to Trade Data Monitor. First-quarter exports were reported at 33,000 mt, a 78% increase from 19,000 mt in the prior-year period. No March exports were recorded in 2022 or 2023.