US Gulf:
NOLA urea continued to strengthen as spring demand surges and the availability of prompt, loaded barges tightened.
New business early in the week was quoted at $350-$360/st FOB for first-half April, up from last week’s broad $318-$355/st range. By midweek confirmed trades were reported at $363-$370/st FOB, with business for prompt, loaded barges climbing to a reported high of $380-$387/st FOB on April 13.
Near-term demand was the primary driver of the NOLA surge, with forward pricing for full April physical tons quoted in the $368-$372/st FOB range and first-half May physical barges trading in the $335-$355/st FOB range.
US Imports:
Urea imports for July-February fell 28.4%, to 2.61 million st from the year-ago 3.65 million st. February imports were up 42.3%, however, to 659,508 st from the prior-year 463,367 st.
July-February imports from Qatar totaled 696,102 st, while Russia moved into second place with 470,265 st. Saudi Arabia added 369,779 st, ahead of 339,298 st from Oman.
US Exports:
Exports for February stood at 91,752 st, off 10.4% from the year-ago 102,364 st. July-February exports totaled 1.11 million st, however, rising 225.1% from the prior-year 341,188 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea prices moved up quickly in the Eastern Cornbelt during the week, fueled by tight supply and a rapidly firming NOLA barge market. Sources quoted the regional range at a firm $420-$430/st FOB, up from last week’s $370-$390/st FOB, with the Cincinnati, Ohio, market pegged at $420-$425/st FOB.
“It has been a very wild run this week so far,” said one regional contact. “I think there was a great lack of pre-buying done and this is what is taxing the supply system, along with the long weather run. Time will tell if these prices continue their strength.”
In the Northeast, urea pricing FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., jumped on April 10 to $440/st FOB for April-May, up from $430/st FOB the week before and $405-$410/st FOB in late March.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices jumped to a broad $395-$425/st FOB range in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location and time of the week, up from last week’s $365-$395/st FOB range. Both the high and low were confirmed at St. Louis, Mo., with prices steadily firming as the week progressed. The St. Paul, Minn., market was pegged at the $430/st FOB level late in the week.
In the Southern Plains, urea offers at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., fell in the $415-$435/st FOB range during the week, with the high reported on April 13.
California:
Urea pricing slipped to $585-$600/st FOB Stockton, Calif., down from $600-$650/st in late March. The latest rail-DEL pricing in Northern California fell in the $540-$585/st range.
Pacific Northwest:
The urea market continued at $460/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., and $465/st FOB Aurora, Ore., with rail-DEL pricing quoted in the $460-$485/st range in the Pacific Northwest, depending on location.
Western Canada:
Urea pricing in Western Canada firmed to C$630-$650/mt FOB and C$670-$700/mt DEL, up slightly from the last confirmed C$630-$640/mt FOB and C$670-$680/mt DEL ranges.
India:
Urea continues to arrive under the last IPL tender, with no indications that another tender will be called any time soon. Sources still expect the next tender to be called sometime in the last week of May, at the earliest.
Indonesia:
The Pupuk tender that closed earlier this month now appears to have settled at $311/mt FOB, with Oracle getting the award. Sources speculate the tonnage will be sold to a trader with an Indian tender award. The final price showed a drop of $7/mt from Indonesia’s last tender in early March.
Middle East:
The increase in NOLA prices let to discussions of an Arab Gulf price in the $320s/mt FOB. International traders said the uptick was not sustainable, however, noting other deals out of the Arab Gulf in the $290s/mt FOB. The main activity in the area still appears to stem from the processing and shipping of cargoes tied to last month’s Indian urea tender.
Egyptian producer MOPCO was reported selling four cargoes at $340/mt FOB. The deals were completed with different traders in quantities ranging from 5,000 mt to 12,000 mt. All of the cargoes were slated to ship in the second half of April.
Sources said the MOPCO urea all appears to be going to European buyers. The small quantities and prompt shipment, said one trader, all point to top-off tons rather than anyone taking a position for future sales.
China:
Rumors are now circulating that the Chinese government will on May 1 remove the inspection for export provisions that have hampered exports. While sources said the action is still just in the rumor stage, traders are beginning to think that urea exports and trading out of China might return to levels not seen for several years.
For now, exports remain limited because the asking price remains too high for the global market. The price out of China was quoted in the $370s/mt FOB, based on the domestic urea price
Brazil:
The stronger NOLA market was noted impacting the Brazilian market. The landed price moved up to $330/mt CFR, an increase of $20-$35/mt from last week. The firming came as vessels initially slated for Brazilian ports were reportedly diverted to NOLA to take advantage of the higher prices there.
The shift from Brazil to the US also changed the type of urea being offered. Sources said that urea from non-sanctioned countries was redirected to the States, leaving product from sanctioned countries for Brazil. This sanctioned product was reported selling for about $325/mt CFR.
The price increase at the ports has not yet reached the inland market, although sources said that prices are bound to change in the next week or so. For now, the market opened up to $430-$465/mt FOB ex-warehouse. Sellers are holding to the pricing lists, but are no longer offer any discounts to buyers, sources said.
The lax demand for product in the area is not surprising, said sources, as the main push for urea will come in the third quarter. If the recent price increases continue, some buyers may move earlier out of fear of dramatically higher prices, however.
Trade Data Monitor put first-quarter imports at 1.4 million mt, down16% year-over-year from 1.6 million mt.
March imports were pegged at 341,000 mt, a 29% decline from 480,000 mt received in March 2022. The main suppliers were Russia and Nigeria, sending 97,000 mt and 67,000 mt, respectively. In addition, Oman sent 62,000 mt, Venezuela added 45,000 mt, and Qatar sent 34,000 mt.