US Gulf:
After starting the week at $340/st FOB, NOLA barges soared to the $395-$405/st FOB range before trading up to $440-$450/st FOB later in the week. Sources reported $450/st as a common price on Thursday.
Good demand and fears of tight supplies were credited with the uptick. Imports of urea were off 28.4% in the July-February fertilizer year-to-date, to 2.61 million st from the year-ago 3.65 million st, while US urea exports firmed 225.1%, to 1.11 million st from the prior-year 341,188 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea pricing jumped to $480-$500/st FOB river terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from last week’s $425-$450/st range, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio, and Ottawa, Ill., at midweek. “Most sellers are indicating higher prices to follow,” said one source.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea rose to $460-$500/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, up from last week’s $410-$430/st, with the upper end of the range reported at St. Louis, Mo. “Inventories are starting to run out throughout St. Louis,” said one contact at midweek.
Southern Plains:
The urea market at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., moved from $460-$475/st FOB early in the week to a high of $495-$500/st FOB by April 27, with prices at Houston, Texas, moving from $445/st FOB on Monday to $470-$475/st FOB at midweek. The Borger, Texas, market was also pegged at $475/st FOB during the week.
South Central:
Southeast:
Urea started the week at $450/st FOB Wilmington, N.C., but sources said the price had firmed to $480/st FOB at midweek with few tons to offer. Midweek offers at Norfolk, Va., were quoted firmly at the $490/st FOB level. In the Northeast, urea offers FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., firmed from $460/st on April 24 to $470/st FOB at midweek.
India:
Reports are circulating that some traders are still seeking tons to fulfill their awards under the Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender. The shipping deadline for the tender is June 1. Sources still expect to see another tender called in the second half of May, most likely right after the IFA Annual Conference closes on May 24.
Urea imported during January-February stood at 1.4 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, off 31% year-over-year from 2.1 million mt.
February imports were noted at 141,000 mt, down significantly from the year-ago 1.1 million mt. India’s main suppliers were Oman with 88,000 mt, followed by Vietnam with 26,000 mt.
Black Sea:
Sources reported prilled urea prices steady at $300-$305/mt FOB.
Indonesia:
A prompt 30,000 mt purchase by Petronas of Malaysia lifted the granular export price to $345-$350/mt FOB. Sources said the deal was a one-off needed to cover sales promised from a Petronas plant that failed to come back online as planned.
The purchase is reportedly for the Southeast Asian market. The buyer is said to be looking for vessels to ship urea from Bontang to Thailand for late April or early May. Another option is the product could head to Australia. Sources reported that Australian buyers have been very active in spot market lately.
Prior to the sale, Pupuk reportedly told sources they were sold out through mid-May, and would not be offering more tons for sale until then. One trader noted that when asked what prices Pupuk might target in its next set of tenders, agents for the producer demurred.
Middle East:
Another deal from the UAE shifted pricing. The sale, reported at $331.50/mt FOB, came one week after Fertiglobe closed a deal at $330/mt FOB. While sources estimated the likely range from the area at $330-$335/mt FOB with room for growth, concluded pricing remained at $330-$332/mt FOB for now.
The urea market’s slow upward movement has producers expecting better netbacks in the coming weeks. As a result, producers were reportedly unwilling to commit to prices for second-half May shipments.
The Egyptian price continued its climb. Kima reported a sale of 10,000 mt of granular urea at $360/mt FOB, a $10/mt increase from last week’s MOPCO sales. Sources said the price increase came on increased interest in Egyptian material by potential US buyers.
As the week ended, MOPCO also closed a couple of deals. Two lots of 6,000 mt each went to a trader at $362/mt FOB for first half of May shipment. Another cargo of 5,000 mt sold for $365/mt FOB for shipment next week.
US buyers were also said to be eyeing tons from AOA in Algeria. The price from Algeria is now reportedly pegged at $360-$365/mt FOB.
China:
The industry remained in a holding position for the week, waiting to see if the rumored easing of export regulations will take place on May 1. Until the announcement is made, sources said that inquiries have slackened.
Any new business will be difficult to conduct in the next week, even if the inspection process is streamlined to allow for more exports. China will be essentially closed during the week of May 1 to celebrate International Labor Day.
The potential price for exported urea has come off, said sources. The weakening domestic market has lowered the price to about $335-$340/mt ex-plant, translating to an estimated export price of $350-$355/mt FOB. However, even lower prices are said to be under discussion. Reportedly, Fudao is looking at selling tonnage in May at $335-$340/mt FOB. The target market seems to be Latin America. No deals have been concluded yet, but the new price should appear in May discussions.
First-quarter exports totaled 527,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, a 74% increase from 303,000 mt reported in January-March 2023.
March exports, reported at 120,000 mt, were nearly doubled from the year-ago 66,000 mt. The primary buyers were South Korea with 28,000 mt, and Chile with 14,000 mt.
Brazil:
The landed price remained steady at $340-$350/mt CFR amid limited trading. Sources said the urea market’s main focus in the Americas has shifted to the rising NOLA market.
The Rondonopolis price widened to $450-$480/mt FOB ex-warehouse, with the upper part of the range moving up. Sources said aggressive sellers were pushing for $500/mt FOB ex-warehouse, but were not able to close the deals. The rising inland price was related to reports of limited availability, sources said.
Argentina:
Trade Data Monitor reported January-March urea imports at 29,000 mt, more than double the year-ago 13,000 mt.
March imports stood at 16,000 mt, compared to the 12,000 mt recorded in March 2022., with 14,000 mt coming from Turkmenistan. Argentina’s main urea buying season traditionally begins in the second quarter, and extends through the third quarter before waning again.