Central Florida:
Central Florida DAP trucks remained posted at $640/st FOB for the week, steady from the prior report. Truck-loaded MAP ran $10/st below DAP at $630/st FOB, also unmoved from last check.
North Florida MAP trucks continued to be posted at $650/st FOB, sources said.
US Gulf:
Sources noted a quiet week on the NOLA DAP and MAP barge markets, with few trades reported to conclude.
NOLA DAP was noted at $450-$460/st FOB for tons believed to originate from Saudi Arabia, on par with the market’s week-ago bottom, while domestic producers reported indications at $500/st FOB, off $10/st from the prior $510/st FOB top.
Imported June MAP barges loading from NOLA were counted at $450-$460/st FOB on May 24, falling from last week’s $480/st FOB low, while domestic producers described price indications at $500/st FOB. With no trades reported at that level, the top of the MAP range continued at the prior $490/st FOB.
DAP barges loading from NOLA were priced in a wide $450-$500/st FOB range for the May 19-25 trading week, tightening from the previously-heard $450-$510/st FOB level. Sources noted MAP at $450-$490/st FOB, off from $480-$490/st FOB at last check.
US Exports:
While the Gulf export market’s most recent reported spot trading continued to track at $550/mt FOB, sellers described new offers softening to $520/st FOB. Based on the reported offers, the Gulf DAP and MAP export markets moved to $520/st FOB from $550/st FOB noted previously.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP dropped to $640-$700/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, down from last week’s $690-$740/st, with the low confirmed in Illinois and the high at Cincinnati. MAP was in a much tighter range at $680-$700/st FOB in the region, with the high again reported at Cincinnati.
Western Cornbelt:
A drop in demand and falling NOLA barges prices pressured DAP and MAP in the region. DAP fell to $625-$680/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, down from last week’s $680-$720/st range, with the low reported at St. Louis.
MAP was pegged in an even broader range at $620-$700/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported at St. Louis, down sharply from last week’s $700-$720/st FOB level.
California:
The California MAP market was steady at $780-$800/st FOB or DEL.
Pacific Northwest:
MAP pricing in the Pacific Northwest was quoted at $760-$780/st FOB/DEL in late May.
Western Canada:
Tight supply and strong demand pushed MAP prices in Western Canada to a high of C$1,150-$1,200/mt FOB, depending on location, up from C$1,070-$1,110/mt FOB earlier in the month.
“MAP prices have continued to run with supply drastically under-positioned before spring,” reported one regional contact. “Rail-DEL prices are more-or-less nonexistent at the moment as everyone needs terminal tons, given the timing.”
China:
Pricing expectations for DAP are now below $500/mt FOB. Estimates based on the latest ex-plant price put export pricing at $485-$510/mt FOB, depending on location.
Reports of softer pricing prompted traders to put the market at $480-$490/mt FOB, although no deals were reported in the lower-$480s/mt FOB. At least one deal into India indicated a netback of $485/mt FOB, however.
Prices are expected to continue to drop, and some traders speculated the market will see $460/mt FOB soon. Some also noted that DAP would have to come off at least $100/mt in the coming months to fit their perception of where the market is heading. Few challenged that view.
DAP exports were noted at 966,000 mt for January-April, according to Trade Data Monitor, up marginally from 938,000 mt exported in January-April 2022. April exports firmed to 333,000 mt from 195,000 mt in the previous year. India took 230,000 mt, for 69% of the market.
January-April MAP exports lifted 65% year-over-year, to 670,000 mt from 405,000 mt. Exports for April were reported at 135,000 mt, falling from the year-ago 203,000 mt. Brazil purchased 70,000 mt in April, while North Korea and Argentina took about 15,000 mt each.
India:
Demand for DAP remains steady. Buyers continue to push for more cargoes at ever-lower prices. Sources reported at least one deal closing this past week at $505/mt CFR, for a netback of $485/mt FOB to China.
Traders at the IFA meeting in Prague took note of the $505/mt CFR price and predicted that $490/mt CFR will be done next week. At this level, the netback to China would register in the $460s/mt FOB.
Trade Data Monitor put January-March DAP imports at 1.3 million mt, off 7% from 1.4 million mt imported through the first quarter of 2022. March imports fell 46%, to 445,000 mt from the prior-year 823,000 mt. Russia supplied 159,000 mt in April, followed by Saudi Arabia with 157,000 mt. Jordan and China added about 65,000 mt each.
Brazil:
Sources said that widespread reports of increased countervailing duties on Russian MAP by the US are forcing vessels to divert from the US Gulf to Brazil. The extra tonnage is being added to an already oversupplied market, dropping prices further to $470-$490/mt CFR.
There was some disagreement about the actual status of Rondonopolis pricing, but what is clear is that a significant drop has occurred. The disagreement left a range of $620-$650/mt FOB ex-warehouse, against last week’s price of $640-$680/mt FOB ex-warehouse.
More aggressive companies reportedly claimed deals done at $620-$630/mt FOB ex-warehouse. At the same time, others reported sales in the higher $645-$650/mt FOB range.
Argentina:
January-April MAP imports totaled 104,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 6% increase from the year-ago 98,000 mt. April imports stood at 50,000 mt, off from 97,000 mt received in April 2022. Lithuania sent 32,000 mt in April, while Russia added 14,000 mt. Sources speculated that the Lithuanian tons originated in Russia and were transshipped through Lithuania.