US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia for July remained at $285/mt CFR, with the NOLA market at a Tampa-equivalent of $259/st FOB. Sources reported no news on Tampa pricing for August.
Eastern Cornbelt:
A new round of fall prepay prices for ammonia were announced on July 17 at $445-$455/st FOB terminals in Illinois and Indiana, up from the prior week’s $425-$430/st FOB offers, which were reportedly pulled late on July 14. The new prepay prices reflect a $90-$95/st increase from the summer fill prices launched in mid-June at $350-$365/st FOB.
Western Cornbelt:
Prepay ammonia prices edged up to $410-$435/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, depending on location. The prior week’s prepay offers at $390/st FOB in Nebraska, $410/st FOB in Iowa, and $415/st FOB Palmyra, Mo., were reportedly pulled on July 14.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia fall prepay pricing was quoted at $375-$395/st FOB in the Southern Plains, depending on location, up from the $290-$325/st FOB summer fill level. Sources reported steady ammonia movement in parts of western Kansas on winter wheat ground during the week.
South Central:
The ammonia market was quoted at $260-$325/st FOB in the South Central region, with the lower end reported for truck tons out of Gulf Coast production points. Other prices for the last confirmed offers included $300/st FOB Cherokee, Ala., and $325/st FOB Memphis, Tenn. Sources said no truck prices were being offered at El Dorado, Ark., or Midway, Tenn.
Northwest Europe:
Sources reported spot ammonia tons coming in for BASF at an undisclosed price. Sources estimated prices at $320-$340/mt CFR, however, more than $20/mt above the previously reported contract levels.
Traders said it was unclear whether the tonnage was brought in due to an increase in demand from BASF or because the company had issues with its own production. The situation may become clearer if additional tons are secured in the near future.
EuroChem received shipments into Antwerp from its Russian operations. The ammonia came via a Saint Petersburg facility where product is moved from trucks to a ship anchored in the port, which serves as a floating storage facility. From there the ammonia goes to a vessel for shipment. Sources said three cargoes have been shipped so far using this process, including two to Antwerp and one to Turkey. The system has been operating since June.
While the system allows for Russian ammonia to be shipped, sources said the long loading process does not make it a viable substitute for the loss of Russian access to ammonia terminals in Lithuania and the Black Sea. One trader said it takes about two weeks to load a ship for export.
India:
Trammo was the only company to offer tons in FACT’s latest call for product. While FACT requested prices on two 7,500 mt cargoes, Trammo offered just one cargo at $380/mt CFR. A new call is expected for the second lot.
The price FACT accepted is dramatically higher than where sources think the market should be. At $380/mt CFR, the netback to the Arab Gulf is in the $320-$330/mt FOB range, about $100/mt higher than the region’s last estimated price. Traders said that while FACT did agree to this price, the amount is significantly above what any other market could handle.
Most of the ammonia flowing into India is priced under long-term contracts, which sources estimate at around $295-$310/mt CFR. One trader noted that the contracted tons are shipped in larger quantities than FACT’s 7,500 mt request, and usually require stopping at only one port.
The small quantity requested by FACT typically requires a supplier to combine the order with a second spot buyer in India so that a reasonably sized ship can be secured for the delivery. Sources said finding other buyers on the spot market is difficult, however.
Middle East:
The netback from the recent ammonia sale to FACT/India was put at $320-$330/mt FOB. While sources said this level is too high for any other market, it was the only spot deal to conclude. Most of the tonnage shipping out of the region is sold under long-term contracts, with sources estimating prices closer to $235-$260/mt FOB.
Demand from Southeast Asia has reportedly prevented any possible build-up of surplus product in the Arab Gulf. However, the Pilbara plant in Australia, expected to restart at the end of July, will resume supplying much of Southeast Asia’s needs. At the same time, plants in Indonesia and Malaysia will continue to turn out ammonia for their neighbors.
Once these plants are all shipping product, Southeast Asian orders to suppliers in the Arab Gulf will wane. The resulting cut in demand is expected to quickly produce a surplus of material unless producers drop their pricing ideas, said sources.
South Korea:
Trade Data Monitor reported January-June ammonia imports at 559,000 mt, down 20% from the 697,000 mt imported in first-half 2022.
Second-quarter imports were pegged at 264,000 mt, off from 289,000 mt received in April-June 2022, while June imports of 102,000 mt were up 60% from the year-ago 64,000 mt. Saudi Arabia led June suppliers with 70,000 mt, followed by Indonesia with 22,000 mt.