US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia firmed to $295/mt CFR for August, up $10/mt from July’s $285/mt CFR. Sources attributed the rise to firming international markets and steadily strengthening inland terminal prices. The new contract marks the first monthly increase since October 2022, when the Tampa price reached $1,175/mt CFR.
NOLA barge prices also adjusted to reflect a Tampa equivalent, strengthening to $268/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices firmed to $465-$485/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for prompt or prepay tons, up from $445-$455/st FOB last week, with the low reflecting new offers from Koch on July 24 FOB Wood River, Ill. CF reportedly followed on July 25, pushing its prices to $480/st FOB in Illinois and $485/st FOB in Indiana, with Nutrien reposting at $485/st FOB Lima, Ohio.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia pricing strengthened again early in the week, moving to $450/st FOB in Nebraska, $460-$470/st FOB in Iowa, and $475/st FOB Palmyra, Mo., for prompt or prepay tons. Those levels were up from last week’s $410-$435/st FOB range and reflect a $60/st increase from the first round of fall prepay prices offered in the Western Cornbelt earlier in July.
The latest ammonia offers in the Southern Plains were quoted at $385-$410/st FOB production points, with the low at Pryor, Okla., and the high reported at Verdigris, Okla.
California:
Ammonia remained at $580/st DEL in California, with aqua ammonia referenced at $159/st FOB Stockton and $169/st FOB Sycamore.
Pacific Northwest:
The latest ammonia offers in the Pacific Northwest were quoted at $445-$460/st FOB, up from the prior $415/st FOB level. Aqua ammonia was reported at $120/st FOB in late July.
Western Canada:
Ammonia pricing reportedly jumped to C$810-$1,025/mt DEL for fall tons in Western Canada, up from a previous low of C$510/mt DEL for July fill shipments. Sources reported limited offers, with some suppliers currently sold out.
India:
Trammo sold a cargo into India at $350/mt CFR, sources reported, a $30/mt drop from previous business secured under the FACT tender call.
The bulk of the ammonia currently arriving in the country is purchased under long-term contracts, while smaller spot quantities are concluded at significantly higher prices. Sources put the contract price at $295-$310/mt CFR.
India is running tight on ammonia, sources said, and buyers are looking for product wherever they can. Part of the problem buyers are facing is a lack of Iranian material. Sources said there are currently no indications of India-bound vessels being loaded in Iran. Traders attributed the lack of product to Iranians favoring urea production over ammonia.
Middle East:
Last week’s $380/mt CFR ammonia sale to India led to a $320-$340/mt FOB netback. While producers argued that price should still hold, a new sale into India at $350/mt CFR puts the current estimated netback at $290-$300/mt FOB.
Even at that level, sources said the ammonia price is too high for other markets, such as Southeast Asia. Buyers in Asia are reportedly holding back on purchases in protest of the higher prices.
For now, producers can hold firm to their pricing ideas. The contracts they are covering, along with the occasional spot cargo, have filled their order books well into August. By the end of August, however, demand is expected to come off, leading to a buildup of reserves that could push prices down.
Northwest Europe:
While no new spot deals were confirmed, sources reported discussions focused at $350-$370/mt CFR, a $30/mt increase over previous business.
Demand is expected to remain strong as ammonia plants in Europe close. It remains cheaper for many producers to import ammonia rather than make it themselves. Part of the push for higher prices also stems from uncertainty surrounding future gas prices. While gas prices remain in flux, the market does not seem to fear the possibility of inadequate near-term supply, however.
Southeast Asia:
Industrial buyers are holding back on orders until the Arab Gulf price comes down, said sources. The recent $350/mt CFR deal into India is still too high for buyers to sign deals.
Price relief could be on the horizon for the regional market. The Pilbara plant in Australia remains slated to return to full production by the end of the month. At the same time, the Kaltim 3 and Kaltim 5 facilities in Indonesia are slowly coming back online. The Indonesian plants are expected to focus more on urea for August and September, however, keeping the amount of available ammonia at a minimum.
Thailand imported 189,000 mt of ammonia in January-June, Trade Data Monitor reported, an 18% increase from 160,000 mt in first-half 2022. Malaysia supplied 118,000 mt, while China sent 28,000 mt.
June imports were counted at 41,000 mt, up 34% from the year-ago 31,000 mt. April-June imports were 92,000 mt, however, down 21% from 117,000 mt in second-quarter 2022.
China:
Increased domestic demand and soft prices in Asia limited ammonia exports in June and the second quarter. June exports totaled 1,500 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, down from 8,000 mt in June 2022. Second-quarter exports were pegged at 8,000 mt, off 50% from 16,000 mt in April-June 2022 and down significantly from the 126,000 mt shipped in the first quarter.
Stronger demand from Chinese industries was reflected in increased imports, however. China imported 391,000 mt in January-June, up 170% from the year-ago 145,000 mt. Indonesia sent 237,000 mt, followed by Saudi Arabia with 94,000 mt. June imports firmed to 74,000 mt from 45,000 mt in the prior year, while second-quarter imports lifted to 285,000 mt from 66,000 mt in April-June 2022.