US Gulf:
The NOLA potash market remained under pressure following the launch of fill programs from Nutrien and Mosaic. New NOLA business was confirmed at $310-$325/st FOB during the week, down from last week’s broad $330-$350/st FOB range. Offers were pegged as high as $335/st FOB, with no trades reported at that level.
Potash fill pricing was quoted at $360-$370/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt. Following Nutrien’s July 21 fill program announcement at $370/st FOB Midwest terminals, Mosaic confirmed its fill offer at $365/st FOB river terminals and $370/st FOB inland warehouses. The company added that it expects strong interest, with pricing and availability “subject to change at any time.”
Potash was pegged at $360-$370/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt for fill program offers.
California:
Potash fill pricing was quoted at $495-$503/st FOB or DEL in California in late July, down sharply from earlier prompt offers at $605-$615/st FOB and $610-$620/st DEL.
Pacific Northwest:
Potash fill offers in the Pacific Northwest fell to $450-$458/st FOB or DEL, with the low for 60% and the high for 62% MOP. The program is slated to close on July 28, however, with prices moving up $30/st after that date.
Western Canada:
Potash truck pricing in Western Canada dropped to C$515/mt FOB Saskatchewan mines for July-September fill shipments, well below spring offers in the C$680-$695/mt FOB range, depending on grade.
China:
Arab Potash Co. (APC) on July 18 signed an agreement with Sinochem Macao to supply potash to China at a price of $307/mt CFR under the same terms reached with other international suppliers for 2023, the producer said in a filing to Amman Stock Exchange. APC did not comment on the volumes negotiated with Sinochem Macao.
Canpotex was the first international supplier to reach a deal with its Chinese customers for seaborne shipments of standard potash in 2023, setting the price at $307/mt CFR for shipments through Dec. 31, 2023 (GM June 9, p. 15). The new price marks a drop of $283/mt, or 48%, from the 2022 price of $590/mt CFR.
Potash imports in China totaled 5.2 million mt for the first half of 2023, according to Trade Data Monitor, up28% from the year-ago 4.1 million mt. Belarus supplied 2 million mt, followed by Russia with 1.1 million mt. Laos added 713,000 mt, while Canada sent 686,000 mt.
Southeast Asia:
Despite offers of material from Uzbekistan at $330/mt CFR, sources reported the market at $300/mt CFR. Traders said buyers would be willing to pick up the Uzbek material, but only after the price is lowered. One trader noted that buyers are in no rush to purchase potash at this time. Reserves are reportedly high enough that buyers can wait out sellers.
Thailand imported 294,000 mt of potash in January-June, Trade Data Monitor reported,a 49% decline from last year’s 492,000 mt. Canada and Laos supplied 78,000 mt and 60,000 mt, respectively.
June imports firmed 36% year-over-year, to 110,000 mt from 81,000 mt. Thailand received 199,000 mt in the second quarter, down from 322,000 mt recorded in April-June 2022.
Brazil:
Potash prices in Brazil strengthened $5/mt, to $335-$355/mt CFR. Players reported a large purchase at the top of the range, while tons remained available toward the lower end. Despite supply constrictions exacerbated by the Vancouver port strike, sizable inventories in Brazil kept a lid on prices even as a number of large suppliers remained out of the market.
Potash inventories also remain high throughout the country, including at Rondonopolis. Prices at Rondonopolis followed the phosphate and nitrogen markets higher, however, firming to $470-$490/mt FOB ex-warehouse.