US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia remained at $295/mt CFR for August, with no word on the direction for September.
US Imports:
June ammonia imports firmed 0.3% year-over-year, according to US Census Bureau data, to 215,157 st from 214,592 st in June 2022. Imports fell 10.2% in the July-June fertilizer year, however, to 2.45 million st from the year-ago 2.73 million st.
July-June imports from Trinidad and Tobago totaled 1.27 million st. Canada sent 1.10 million st, followed by Algeria with 27,887 st.
US Exports:
June ammonia exports were noted at 83,091 st, an 11.9% decrease from the year-ago 94,295 st. July-June volumes were up 191.4%, however, to 1.35 million from the prior-year 464,333 st.
Chile led US export destinations in July-June with 289,395 st, followed by Norway with 207,796 st. Morocco bought 154,414 st, ahead of Mexico’s 134,480 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices continued to be quoted at $465-$485/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt for prompt or prepay tons, with the low in Illinois and the high reported in Indiana and Ohio.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market remained at $440-$475/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at Hoag, Neb., and the high at Palmyra, Mo. Iowa terminals continued to be reported in the $440-$470/st FOB range, depending on location.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia pricing in the Southern Plains was pegged at $385-$425/st FOB, with the low at Pryor, Okla., and the high reported at Verdigris, Okla.
South Central:
The ammonia market in the South Central region was quoted at $350/st FOB Cherokee, Ala., and $380/st FOB Memphis, Tenn. Truck pricing out of Gulf Coast production points was reported at $270-$280/st FOB in early August.
Black Sea:
The plan to upgrade the port facility at Taman, located on the eastern side of the Black Sea, to a 2 million mt/y ammonia shipping capacity is moving on schedule, TogliattiAzot (ToAz) told Russian leaders this week. The project is scheduled to be completed by 2026.
Work at the Taman port followed repeated failed efforts by Russia to reopen the ammonia pipeline to Odessa. Without the pipeline, ammonia exports from the Black Sea were halted. Russia tried to tie the pipeline’s reopening to the Turkish-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative, the now-defunct deal that allowed Russian fertilizers and Ukrainian grain to be shipped through the war zone without fear of attack. Russia recently backed out of the agreement.
Northwest Europe:
The 20% jump in natural gas prices in Europe does not seem to have bothered regional ammonia producers. Sources tied the price increase to reports of a potential strike action in Australia. Based on European fundamentals alone, said one source, prices should otherwise continue the slight declines seen in recent weeks.
For now, ammonia traders and producers described discussions about the gas price rise as a “storm in a water glass.” Producers, said one source, are faced with the same dilemma they had before the price jump of how to proceed. They can either sign long-term contracts at current rates, knowing the trend is likely to continue downward, or they can continue to buy spot tons as needed from the cheaper international market.
Sellers are pushing for a price of $370/mt CFR, but do not yet seem able to achieve it. Sources said demand is soft, leaving suppliers with little leverage to push prices higher.
Small buyers were said to be paying $350-$365/mt CFR, while larger buyers are getting their tons for less than $350/mt CFR. These deals, said traders, are based on contracts. The lack of any spot deals makes pricing ideas difficult to nail down.
India:
FACT previously said that it scrapped its last tender because it could cover its needs either from its own facilities, or from some other Indian supplier. However, sources now say the real reason was either that no one offered product to FACT, or that only one offer was made at a price FACT could not accept.
The last spot deal into India, a previous FACT tender that was covered by Trammo, was valued at $350/mt CFR. This price is significantly higher than what other customers are said to be paying. Larger buyers with long-term contracts are getting their ammonia for less than $300/mt CFR, players said. This lower price cannot be replicated in any spot deal, however.
Southeast Asia:
Buyers are taking what their contracts require and nothing more, sources said. The latest price out of the area was quoted at $320/mt CFR to a South Korean buyer. The material came from the Arab Gulf, for an estimated netback of $220-$240/mt FOB. Traders were quick to point out that the cargo was handled under a contract, meaning the price was not available to any spot buyer.
Middle East:
Ma’aden sold a 5,000 mt cargo to Jordan Phosphate Mines Co. (JPMC) at $380/mt CFR, according to circulating reports. The transactions nets back to $320/mt FOB, sources said.
That price falls far outside of the current market. One trader said the tonnage apparently came from a larger cargo destined for OCP/Morocco. The netback equates to about $400/mt CFR into Southeast Asia and is dramatically higher than any buyer is willing to pay.
Sources doubted that any future buyers would be willing to match the $320/mt FOB price. Ammonia seekers are reportedly looking to push down the Arab Gulf price from the $290-$300/mt FOB level seen before the JPMC deal.
Brazil:
January-July ammonia imports totaled 176,000 mt, Trade Data Monitor reported,down about 35% from the year-ago 271,000 mt. July imports were 19,000 mt, a 40% decrease from 32,000 mt received in July 2022.
Ammonia exports for the first seven months of the year softened slightly, to 48,000 mt from 49,000 mt shipped in January-July 2022. Brazil took 15,000 mt, Germany received 11,000 mt, and France bought 4,000 mt. There were no exports reported in July 2022.