US Gulf/Tampa:
The Tampa ammonia price for September closed at $390/mt CFR during the week, up more than 32% from the $295/mt CFR August price. While an increase was expected, sources speculated that last week’s Nutrien/Ma’aden deal added fuel to the market, pushing the Tampa price higher than anticipated.
The NOLA barge market also adjusted to reflect a Tampa equivalent, strengthening to $354/st FOB from the prior $268/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia continued to be reported in the $500-$525/st FOB range out of terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, unchanged from last week.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia was steady at $500-$525/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in Nebraska and the high in Missouri.
Southern Plains:
Ammonia pricing covered a broad range in the Southern Plains, from a reported low of $425/st FOB Pryor, Okla., for prompt tons to a high of $500/st FOB Enid, Okla., for prompt or prepay.
South Central:
Ammonia remained at $350-$380/st FOB South Central terminals for the last confirmed business, with the truck market out of Gulf Coast production points reported at $270-$280/st FOB. An increase is expected in the wake of the new Tampa September price, however.
India:
A FACT ammonia tender calling for 7,500 mt closed with no data released by the company. Sources speculated that the shortage of public information could be due to a lack of participation. Alternatively, one trader said that if an offer was made, the price was likely too high for FACT to seriously consider.
Sales of ammonia to small buyers such as FACT became more complicated after last week’s $400/mt FOB Nutrien/Ma’aden deal, which put the official Arab Gulf spot price well above levels that buyers are willing to accept. On a positive note for buyers, material is becoming available from both Iran and Venezuela at prices that are more acceptable to purchasers, one trader said.
So far, India’s last spot price of $380-$385/mt CFR holds as the basis for most talks, while larger quantities purchased under long-term contracts continue to see prices in the $340s/mt CFR.
Middle East:
The ammonia market is still feeling the impact of the Nutrien/Ma’aden deal priced at $400/mt FOB. New information showed that Nutrien is only taking 20,000 mt, sources said, rather than the previously expected 25,000 mt.
The price set a benchmark that was too high for buyers around the world. Sources put the Northwest Europe-equivalent price around $500/mt CFR, the US-equivalent at $550/mt CFR, and the Southeast Asia price at $470-$480/mt CFR, none of which are workable in these areas.
Industry watchers also noted that the deal’s $400/mt FOB price came at a time when production in the industry was coming back online. The previously reported cutbacks from Saudi Arabia and Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be erased by the end of September, leaving a surplus in the market.
The lack of any new spot deals in the area leaves the price at $400/mt FOB. The bulk of the ammonia flowing out of the region is purchased under long-term contracts with significantly lower prices.
Northwest Europe:
Fluctuating ammonia prices were reported as natural gas values and availability shift from day to day. Sources put the market at $380-$400/mt CFR for the week.
There was talk of a possible increase to $410/mt CFR based on reports of an Algerian deal at $380/mt FOB. Sources could find no confirmation of the Algerian price idea, however, and talk of higher prices in Europe subsequently faded.
EuroChem continues to send ammonia to its Antwerp facility from a Baltic port via a convoluted process. The ammonia is piped from a truck to an anchored vessel for storage, and then onward to another ship for delivery. Sources described the process as slow, but steady.
While no price could be tied to the product arriving at the EuroChem plant in Europe, sources noted that some of the Baltic ammonia is being sold to Turkey for about $340/mt CFR. One trader calculated back the freight, as well as the more costly loading process, to a netback of $220-$250/mt FOB. This price is seen as a good deal for both EuroChem and Turkey.
Southeast Asia:
Major buyers in Taiwan and South Korea are reportedly paying in the $370s/mt CFR for ammonia, while simultaneously pushing for lower prices. The Nutrien/Ma’aden deal at $400/mt FOB Saudi Arabia is not workable into Asia, leaving talks for future tons up in the air.
Buyers can wait, sources said, as demand remains limited in the area. Buyers are currently taking only what is required under their contracts with Arab Gulf suppliers, said one trader. There have been no queries for extra spot tons.
The region’s limited demand for ammonia was reflected in the most recent import numbers from Thailand. Trade Data Monitor reported January-July imports at 217,000 mt, up 5% from 205,000 mt in the same period last year. July imports were 28,000 mt, down more than a third from the 45,000 mt received in July 2022. Malaysia supplied the bulk of the July tonnage with 25,000 mt, with the rest coming from Indonesia.