US Gulf/Tampa:
The ammonia market was trending higher in the wake of last week’s Tampa close at $390/mt CFR for September. Although still too early for clear direction on October, sources said they expect another increase, citing production curtailments and additional strength in both inland and international ammonia prices.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices were strengthening in the Eastern Cornbelt, though most producers had reportedly pulled offers. Sources quoted the market at $625/st FOB in Illinois and Indiana for the latest prompt or prepay tons, well above the prior $500-$525/st FOB range.
Western Cornbelt:
Sources said most ammonia offers in the Western Cornbelt were pulled in early September, but the few indications that were reported suggest higher prices at $600-$625/st FOB for prompt or prepay tons, up significantly from the prior $500-$525/st FOB range. In the Northern Plains, new pricing was reported at the $650/st FOB level in Minnesota.
In the Southern Plains, the latest ammonia offers firmed to $500/st FOB Pryor, Okla., and $525/st FOB Enid, Okla., while truck pricing at Beaumont, Texas, jumped to $380/st FOB for limited business, up from the previous $270-$280/st FOB Gulf Coast truck market.
“It’s a bit of a quiet time of year for ammonia, but prices are following world market trends on ammonia and urea,” said one industry contact.
California:
Ammonia remained at $580/st DEL in California, with aqua ammonia referenced at $159/st FOB Stockton and $169/st FOB Sycamore.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia pricing jumped to $600/st FOB regional terminals for limited tons in the Pacific Northwest, up from the $460/st FOB summer price. “There are limited-to-no September loads,” commented one source, noting that most of the new business is likely for October shipment. Delivered ammonia offers were pegged at the $760/st level for railed tons from the Midwest.
The aqua ammonia market firmed to $155/st FOB in the Pacific Northwest, up from the prior $120/st FOB level.
Western Canada:
The last confirmed ammonia prices in Western Canada strengthened to C$900/mt FOB and C$1,000/mt DEL for October-December tons.
Production issues were reportedly impacting the market. Industry sources said Nutrien’s Joffre Nitrogen facility in Alberta remains down for another seven days after earlier reports indicated the plant would come back online on Sept. 7, while operations at Carseland and Redwater, Alta., continue at reduced rates. Nutrien declined to comment.
Black Sea:
Turkey continues to work the spot market for the 40,000-50,000 mt of ammonia it needs each month. Sources said buyers have spread their requests wide, including Venezuela and Iran in the mix. While Turkey’s monthly requirement is well known, sources said buyers continue to place their orders on a month-to-month basis instead of securing long-term contracts.
Turkey imported 499,000 mt of ammonia in January-July, Trade Data Monitor reported, up about 27% from the year-ago 392,000 mt. July imports were 64,000 mt, a 23% increase from the 53,000 mt received in July 2022. Trinidad and Tobago led suppliers with 33,000 mt, Russia sent 13,000 mt, and Qatar added 10,000 mt.
India:
After receiving no response in its August tender for 7,500 mt of ammonia, FACT tried again, closing the re-tender on Sept. 6. A single offer from Trammo was reported at $500/mt CFR, more than $100/mt above the prior landed price. Sources could not confirm whether an award was made as Green Markets went to press.
The $500/mt CFR offer is well above any other international market and appears to indicate Trammo seeing a need and moving to take advantage of it, an action traders described as unsurprising. Some questioned whether FACT needs the ammonia so badly that it would pay Trammo’s price, as there is some indication that the company may be able to operate without accepting the offer.
Middle East:
Producers continue to hold out of the spot market, or at least remain quiet about any deals they may have done. Last month’s Nutrien/Saudi trade, reported at $400/mt FOB, continued to stand as the ammonia market’s last public deal, sources said.
Sources noted talk of producers quietly reaching out with offers at $430/mt FOB, but with no takers. One trader said the new offers were designed to reinforce the $400/mt FOB price as the basis for all future talks.
Northwest Europe:
Ammonia prices remain stable. The production cost of ammonia in Europe continues at $400/mt ex-plant, leaving no room for any real shift in the imported price.
The bulk of the ammonia currently being received in Northwest Europe appears to have been brought in by companies for use in their own plants. In this way, the purchase price remains within the corporate structure and does not allow for pricing in the public market.
Brazil:
Exports of ammonia from Brazil are sporadic at best, said sources. Trade Data Monitor reported 48,000 mt of ammonia shipped from Brazil in the January-August period, down marginally from the 49,000 mt exported during the same period of 2022. August exports totaled just 20 mt, against 41 mt in August 2022.
Brazil will only export ammonia when its regularly scheduled imports exceed demand, sources have previously said. Exports begin to increase in 2022, noted one source. Shipments averaged 28,000 mt/y in 2017-2021, indicating increased export totals in 2022 and 2023.
January-August imports softened 34%, to 210,000 mt from 319,000 mt in the prior year. August imports were counted at 33,000 mt, falling from 48,000 mt in August 2022. Trinidad sent 17,000 mt, followed by 16,000 mt from the US.