US Gulf/Tampa:
Tampa ammonia continued at $575/mt CFR for October, up $185/mt from September’s $390/mt CFR. The last confirmed NOLA business remained at the $522-$526/st FOB level, with truck tons reported at $550/st FOB Gulf Coast production points for the latest offers.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices remained at a solid $725/st FOB for the latest offers in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Western Cornbelt:
The ammonia market was quoted at $715-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the last offers in Oklahoma confirmed at the $700/st FOB level for limited availability.
Northern Plains:
Ammonia prices continued to climb in the Northern Plains, with the latest offers confirmed at $725/st FOB terminals in Minnesota and North Dakota, up from the $650/st FOB level in mid-September. No current delivered pricing was reported in the region.
Black Sea:
Turkish ammonia imports totaled 592,000 mt in January-August, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 36% increase from the year-ago 435,000 mt. Trinidad and Tobago supplied 125,000 mt, for 21% of the market.
In its search for ammonia, Turkey has taken as many spot tons as it can from as many sources as possible. North African suppliers accounted for about 30% of imports, while the US sent 61,000 mt, for 10% of the import market. Turkey made small, steady purchases from Iran totaling 21,000 mt, good for 3.5% of its imports during the period.
August imports were noted at 93,000 mt, up 117% from 43,000 mt in August 2022.
India:
Sources reported some spot cargoes under discussion, but players on both sides of the deals are keeping the details quiet. Players have previously voiced expectations of higher prices following the increase at Tampa and last week’s SABIC sale at $550/mt FOB.
Middle East:
The Salalah ammonia plant is Oman was reported down for a long maintenance turnaround. Traders estimate the plant will not return to production until mid-November.
Northwest Europe:
Sources expect the ammonia price to rise in Northwest Europe, citing a potential November benchmark of $600/mt CFR. That price has not yet been achieved, however. The increase was expected to begin late last week after Tampa jumped to $575/mt CFR for October and SABIC closed a deal at $550/mt FOB. The only thing that might tip the price curve lower is the lack of a major increase in the price of natural gas, players said.
For now, the production cost for ammonia remains just under $500/mt ex-plant. It seems that producers in Europe are not yet stepping up production, even though sources view this as the most practical move for producers, and imports are expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace. One concern seems to be how prices will react as the European winter begins.
Last winter was not as harsh as expected, leaving more natural gas available for industrial use. So far, no one is making any bets regarding the intensity of the 2023/24 winter.
Thailand:
Lackluster imports into Thailand reflected the general malaise that sources have associated with the Southeast Asian market during the year. Imports for January-August stood at 233,000 mt, according to Trade Data Monitor, down from the 237,000 mt received one year earlier. August imports of 16,000 mt were about half of the 36,000 mt recorded in August 2022.