US Gulf/Tampa:
Sources said it’s still too early for news on the Tampa ammonia price for November. While some are leaning toward a rollover of October’s $575/mt CFR, others said a wider conflict in the Middle East could drive oil and gas prices higher, fueling expectations of an increase for Tampa ammonia.
US Imports:
Ammonia imports for August moved 17.7% lower year-over-year, according to data released by the US Census Bureau, to 185,050 st from 224,905 st. July-August imports softened 17.9%, to 343,408 st from 418,516 st in the prior year. Canada sent 200,972 st in July-August, Trinidad and Tobago shipped 114,619 st, and Argentina added 7,166 st.
US Exports:
Ammonia exports were down 15.7% in July-August, to 249,837 st from the year-ago 296,467 st. August exports punched in at 151,967 st, off 0.3% from 152,433 st recorded one year earlier. The UK was the top export destination for July-August with 37,992 st, followed by the Netherlands with 35,274 st, Norway with 31,361 st, and Morocco with 28,222 st.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices remained at $725-$750/st FOB terminals in the Eastern Cornbelt, depending on location and producer.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia was steady at $715-$725/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low reported in Nebraska and the high in Iowa and Missouri. In the Southern Plains, ammonia pricing out of terminals in Oklahoma and Kansas fell in the $640-$675/st FOB range at mid-month.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia pricing in California remained at the $740/st DEL mark following a posted increase on Oct. 1. Aqua ammonia postings were steady as well at $200/st FOB Stockton and $210/st FOB Sycamore.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia prices were up in the Pacific Northwest, fueled by higher reference prices from producers. The latest confirmed anhydrous ammonia postings firmed to the $830-$850/st FOB range in the region, up from the prior $750-$775/st FOB level.
Aqua ammonia was also higher in the region, strengthening to $220/st FOB from the previous $190/st FOB.
Western Canada:
The latest ammonia offers in Western Canada remained at C$1,200/mt FOB and C$1,295/mt DEL for October-December tons.
India:
New spot deals have lifted the India ammonia price to $570/mt CFR, sources reported. Suppliers are now said to be asking $610/mt CFR for the next round of deals.
Northwest Europe:
A cargo sold from Algeria at $620/mt FOB will be delivered to Turkey for $690/mt CFR, players reported. At the same time, the Algerian price translates to $680-$690/mt CFR into Northwest Europe, sources calculated. Traders expect $700/mt CFR business to conclude soon.
Production in Europe is slowly stepping up, even as traders continue to report tight supply for November and December. Natural gas prices remain relatively low, with the production cost holding below $500/mt ex-plant. The increased production is still not enough to cover demand in Europe, sources said, leaving buyers to depend on imports.
With winter approaching, producers are reportedly hesitant to increase production by too much, as the current low price and ready availability of natural gas could shift. A harsh winter could quickly force cutbacks to the industrial sector in favor of residential heating.
Middle East:
Pointing to Ma’aden’s return to production and continued soft demand from Southeast Asia, sources said the Middle East price of ammonia may have reached its peak.
At the same time, no major price drop is expected, as European demand appears strong enough to keep the market moving along. Additionally, sources reported some delays as ships destined West of Suez line up to receive their cargoes.
Indonesia:
Ammonia exports from Indonesia totaled 1.1 million mt in January-August, Trade Data Monitor reported, a 14% decrease from the 1.3 million mt exported through the same period of 2022. August exports stood at 182,000 mt, a 29% rise from 141,000 mt shipped in August 2022. Taiwan and China received about 38,000 mt each, followed by South Korea with 33,000 mt.
South Korea:
South Korea ammonia imports totaled 805,000 mt in January-September, Trade Data Monitor reported, down 21% from the year-ago 1 million mt, decreasing in line with the wider slowdown in ammonia demand seen in Southeast Asia.
Third-quarter imports stood at 246,000 mt, off 25% from 328,000 mt recorded in July-September 2022, while September imports of 73,000 mt fell slightly from the 78,000 mt recorded one year earlier. Indonesia supplied 67% of the month’s imports, sending 49,000 mt.