US Gulf:
NOLA urea fell to $342-$350/st for limited November and first-half December trades, down from last week’s $355-$365/st FOB range. Full December business was reported at $340-$345/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea remained at $410-$425/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the Cincinnati, Ohio, market quoted at the lower end of the range. Pricing in the Northeast was reported at $440/st FOB Fairless Hills, Pa., for November-December, down another $20/st from last week.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea remained under pressure in the Western Cornbelt, with the St. Louis, Mo., market slipping to $395-$400/st FOB from last week’s $405-$410/st range. The upper end of the range continued to be reported at the $440-$450/st FOB level in Iowa.
California:
Granular urea pricing in California reportedly dropped to $530-$535/st FOB Stockton, down from the prior $535-$550/st FOB range, with delivered urea also lower at $500-$510/st in the state. Prilled urea fell to $600/st FOB San Diego, down $20/st from last report.
Pacific Northwest:
Urea prices were softening in the Pacific Northwest. The market was quoted at $475/st FOB Rivergate, Ore., $480/st FOB Aurora, Ore., and $470-$494/st DEL in the region, down from the previous $495-$500/st FOB and $523-$545/st DEL ranges.
Western Canada:
The urea market tightened to C$750-$760/mt DEL for the latest offers in Western Canada, with terminal prices steady at the C$740/mt FOB mark.
India:
Award winners in the Indian Potash Ltd. (IPL) tender wasted no time in securing vessels to fulfill their contracts. Sources reported that about 1 million mt of the total 1.7 million mt awarded in the tender had been nominated to at least 20 ships for loading ahead of the tender’s Dec. 20 shipping deadline.
| Source | Est. Ship Nominations |
| Oman | 5 |
| Qatar | 2 |
| Russia | 7 |
| Indonesia | 4 |
| Egypt | 1 |
| Algeria | 1 |
More product from Oman is expected to be added to the list, while another 4-6 cargoes are anticipated from China. SABIC and the UAE may also end up tossing in one shipment each, sources said.
The take from the IPL tender and the rapid response by award winners in getting vessels lined up has made the urea supply issue in India much easier to handle. Sources said another tender may not need to be called until late December or early January 2024.
Black Sea:
Black Sea urea was reported at a solid $350/mt FOB for the week.
Bangladesh:
Bangladesh’s long-awaited Ghorasal Polash Urea Fertilizer plant will be dedicated on Nov. 12, local media reported. The facility has a nameplate production rate of 1 million mt/y.
The facility, built on the space of two older urea production plants, will ease the pressure on Bangladesh to import urea. According to the reports, the facility will not only produce urea, but will also bag the product to be loaded onto trucks and railcars for rapid domestic distribution.
Indonesia:
Pupuk was able to raise its prilled urea price in a new selling tender this week. The holding company offered 20,000 mt of prilled urea, grabbing a high price of $387.50/mt FOB for 5,000 mt, while other bids were reported in the $360s/mt FOB. Pupuk’s previous tender showed a price for prills at $379.50/mt FOB.
The small lot will reportedly end up in the Philippines. Additional deals might still be done to move more product, but in the current bear market, said one trader, Pupuk will most likely have to wait for the next tender and then accept lower prices. Sources speculated that another tender will be held next week.
Previous sales of prilled and granular urea include at least four cargoes heading to India to cover awards in the IPL tender.
Middle East:
With seven vessels already nominated to load product for the IPL/India tender and more expected soon, sources said producers are not anxious to talk with spot buyers.
In addition to the confirmed loadings in Oman and Qatar, SABIC and the UAE may also come in with tons for the tender, players noted. All told, sources speculated that 500,000 mt from the Arab Gulf could be sent to India under the IPL tender.
Rumors abounded that a deal was done at $370/mt FOB, but sources said the price seems to be only talk so far. If a deal was done at that level, the price would be about $18/mt below the estimated netback from the IPL tender.
Iranian producers continue to argue for $350/mt FOB, and buyers continue to counter with $340/mt FOB. No new deals have concluded so far, sources reported, and every recent selling tender announced by Iran has been scrapped when bids failed to reach the seller’s price target.
Egyptian producers have reportedly returned to normal production following a temporary 30% reduction in available natural gas, and sources said most plants had nearly returned to full-rated production levels by the end of the week. The price of the product has become the new issue.
Sources said producers are digging in their heels at $400/mt FOB, but with no takers. At the same time, buyers are looking at the low- to mid-$390s/mt FOB.
Earlier reports that new deals were concluded with Turkey seem premature. Buyers are now pushing for prices equivalent to $380-$385/mt FOB, with producers continuing to shoot for $400/mt FOB. So far there have been no agreements.
Pressure is mounting for deals into Europe at $390-$395/mt FOB, while producers again try to hold the line at $400/mt FOB. There were reports that one producer had offered at $395/mt FOB, with no takers. The lack of any new business leaves the price at the last-done $390-$410/mt FOB level.
There is speculation that Egyptian material will again play a dominant role in the upcoming Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) tender, set to close on Nov. 14. Egypt has sent 402,000 mt to Ethiopia under previous tenders for the year so far, accounting for 66% of the 608,000 mt received by Ethiopia during the period.
Algerian producer AOA will reportedly provide one cargo of material to cover an award in the IPL/India tender. There are also reports that numerous smaller lots of 6,000-10,000 mt will be made available to European buyers once prices become settled.
Ethiopia:
A urea tender for 562,000 mt sponsored by EABC will close on Nov. 14, with delivery of the material to be spread through mid-2024. In the past, EABC has received monthly shipments of at least two cargoes of 50,000 mt each.
Urea imports totaled 608,000 mt in January-October, Trade Data Monitor reported, rising from the year-ago 456,000 mt. Egypt accounted for 66% of the year-to-date imports, sending 402,000 mt, followed by 108,000 mt from Oman. Ethiopia received 51,000 mt in October – all from Egypt – compared to zero imports in October 2022.
China:
Following a late-week meeting of the National Development and Reform Commission, export inspections in China were ordered to an immediate halt, sources said. Exports must cease in order to protect the domestic market, the Commission reportedly said.
The new action effectively placed a hold on new inspections for export. While sources said the order would not impact the tons already cleared for offshore sales, some questioned whether the new rule would impact tons that had already been purchased but not yet cleared. The consensus was that unless an order had been fully vetted and granted a certificate to export, the material will stay in China.
The new rule will remain in place for the next 60 days, following a general announcement that new exports should be stopped for the rest of the year. Some traders who have made handshake agreements with producers for tons not yet cleared said that if they want the material, they may have to wait out the 60-day period. Most said they have already begun to look elsewhere.
Some traders initially hoped the export ban would exempt small lots of 6,000-10,000 mt. This hope was based on past practices that quickly cleared these smaller lots for export, but delayed or stopped larger shipments.
The move to limit exports once again followed reports of rising domestic prices. The government has previously limited exports so that the tonnage produced in the country would be used to build reserves in domestic warehouses and push down the price to farmers. Sources said that most of the urea plants are operating at close to their rated levels, meaning that without exports, domestic supplies will rapidly build up.
Brazil:
Urea prices in Brazil declined to $365-$380/mt CFR from the previous week’s $385-$400/mt CFR. Bids were reported in the $350-$360/mt CFR range, but with no transactions confirmed.
Nitrogen demand remained weak at Rondonópolis as farmers prioritized soybean planting due to the lack of rains. Offers were noted at $520-$535/mt FOB ex-warehouse, following the import market lower. The lack of buyer interest has prevented further price declines, as suppliers are only open to negotiating against firm bids.
January-October urea imports were noted at 5.5 million mt, according to Trade Data Monitor,down slightly from the 5.7 million mt received through the same period of 2022. October imports were counted at 783,000 mt, up 31% from 598,000 mt last October.