US Gulf/Tampa:
No news was reported on the Tampa ammonia price for January, nor on its expected direction. The December Tampa price was concluded at $625/mt CFR, flat from November.
US Imports:
October ammonia imports stood at 164,358 st, the US Census Bureau reported, up 24.8% from the 131,732 st posted last October. July-October volumes softened 11.4%, however, to 686,705 st from the year-ago 775,343 st.
Canada sent 364,426 st to the US in the July-October fertilizer year-to-date, Trinidad and Tobago shipped 293,854 st, and Argentina added 7,166 st.
US Exports:
July-October ammonia exports totaled 467,813 st, down 3.1% from the year-ago 482,768 st. October exports rose 1.9%, however, to 64,886 st from 63,646 st in October 2022.
Morocco was the top export destination for July-October with 146,052 st, followed by Norway with 84,358 st. The Netherlands moved into third place with 49,384 st, ahead of 37,992 st to the UK.
Eastern Cornbelt:
CF on Dec. 13 announced fill and spring prepay programs for ammonia, with offers out of terminals in Illinois and Indiana dropping to $600/st FOB for December-February fill tons and $650/st FOB for spring prepay. Those levels are down $100/st or more from the last prompt fall business, which fell in the $725-$750/st FOB range in the region.
Western Cornbelt:
The first round of December-February fill and spring prepay programs for ammonia were announced by CF on Dec. 13. Postings in Nebraska at Aurora, Blair, and Fremont were reported at $620/st FOB for fill tons and $645/st FOB for spring prepay, while published prices at Port Neal and other Iowa terminals were pegged at $620/st FOB for fill and $640/st FOB for spring.
Southern Plains:
CF’s Dec. 13 fill and spring prepay prices for ammonia included Woodward, Okla., at $600/st FOB for December-February fill and $620/st FOB for spring, and Verdigris, Okla., at $625/st FOB for both fill tons and spring prepay. Those levels are down from the last prompt fall business in the $625-$675/st FOB range in the region, depending on location.
South Central:
The last confirmed truck offers for ammonia out of Gulf Coast production points ranged from $570-$625/st FOB.
India:
Sources reported purchases of imported ammonia at $500/mt CFR, matching where traders previously estimated prices during a period of limited public spot business.
The lack of spot deals in India did not mean ammonia was not being imported. Most buying took place under long-term contracts that provided tons at a substantial discount to the spot market. Smaller buyers could often make do with domestically produced product, leaving few indicators for the price of imports.
Middle East:
Based on reports of $500/mt CFR ammonia in India, estimated netbacks to the Arab Gulf showed up in the $420s/mt FOB, a level sources had discussed for several weeks. There were no spot deals to confirm the talk, however.
Northwest Europe:
The decline in natural gas prices is expected to help ammonia producers step up production. These same producers appear reluctant to lower prices, however, even if supply increases.
The bulk of the deals into Northwest Europe are covered by contracts or formula-based sales. Sources reported a weak feeling to the market, and no new spot inquiries were reported.