US Gulf/Tampa:
Nothing new was reported on the Tampa ammonia price for February. January’s contract was concluded at $525/mt CFR, down $100/mt from December.
Production problems were rumored this week at a number of US plants as bitterly cold temperatures swept the Midwest and South. Ongoing issues were also referenced at Trinidad, which sources said may impact negotiations.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Ammonia prices remained under pressure in the Eastern Cornbelt. After last week’s drop in January-February fill offers, to $550-$580/st FOB from $600-$620/st FOB in December, the latest spring prepay offers reportedly slumped to $590-$615/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low confirmed in Ohio and the higher numbers in Illinois. Those prices were down from December postings in the $625-$650/st FOB range for spring prepay.
Western Cornbelt:
Ammonia was quoted at $550-$585/st FOB in Iowa and Nebraska for January-February fill tons, with spring prepay prices falling to $580-$615/st FOB, depending on location. Pricing out of Wever, Iowa, was pegged at $555/st FOB and $580/st DEL at mid-month.
California:
Anhydrous ammonia was unchanged at $795/st DEL in California, with aqua ammonia prices referenced at $217/st FOB Stockton and $227/st FOB Sycamore.
Pacific Northwest:
Ammonia pricing in the Pacific Northwest was quoted at the $650/st level on both an FOB and rail-DEL basis, down from December prices in the $830-$850/st FOB range. The aqua ammonia market was pegged at $165/st FOB in the region, down from December’s $220/st FOB level.
Western Canada:
Ammonia was quoted at C$975/mt FOB Medicine Hat, Alta., and C$1,000/mt DEL for spring tons in Western Canada.
India:
Rumors circulated late last week of an ammonia deal at $350/mt CFR. Sources this week reported a formula-basis deal between Marubeni and IFFCO priced at a surprising $320/mt CFR. Due to the nature of this deal for late-February delivery, sources said it is unlikely that other buyers will be able to achieve a comparable price.
While sources reported no new spot deals that could help in pricing discovery, they pointed to $350/mt CFR as a basis to begin talks. At that level, however, Arab Gulf producers are unlikely to jump at bids, as the netback would be no higher than $250-$270/mt FOB.
Northwest Europe:
Ammonia prices are expected to come under pressure as more European plants either restart production or announce plans to do so. Lower natural gas prices are leading producers to be more optimistic about stepping up production.
Middle East:
Sources said producers have full order books through February, leaving few tons available for spot deals. From March onward, however, there are expectations that producers may have excess tons they will need to move on the spot market.
Indonesia:
January-November ammonia exports from Indonesia totaled 1.6 million mt, Trade Data Monitor reported, an 8.5% decline from the year-ago 1.8 million mt. November exports were 153,000 mt, down 9% from 167,000 mt in November 2022, with about three-quarters of the tonnage going to South Korea, China, India, and Australia.
South Korea:
South Korea depended on four countries for roughly 75% of its 2023 ammonia imports, according to Trade Data Monitor.
Of South Korea’s 1.1 million mt import total for the year, Indonesia sent 498,000 mt, Saudi Arabia shipped 410,000 mt, and Australia and Qatar each sent about 70,000 mt. Imports for 2023 were down 14% from the 1.3 million mt received in 2022, confirming reports of softer demand from South Korea earlier in the year.
December imports were off 10%, to 89,000 mt from the 99,000 mt received one year earlier. Saudi Arabia and Indonesia combined to supply 95% of the month’s imports, sending 46,000 mt and 38,000 mt, respectively.