Central Florida:
With sources reporting strong demand, Central Florida phosphate prices moved higher during the week. DAP lifted to $610/st FOB from the week-ago $590/st FOB, while MAP trucks increased $10/st, to $640/st FOB from last week’s $630/st FOB. MAP postings from North Florida continued at $640/st FOB.
US Gulf:
NOLA DAP barges lifted to $600-$615/st FOB in a thinly traded market, sources noted, up from $580-$615/st FOB at last report. MAP barges were steady at the $625-$630/st FOB level.
US Exports:
Sources reported no new DAP or MAP spot export business out of the US Gulf, leaving prices unchanged at $570/mt FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP edged up to $640-$670/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with MAP reported in the $680-$695/st FOB range. Cincinnati pricing remained at $650-$670/st FOB for DAP and $685-$695/st FOB for MAP during the week.
DAP firmed to $640-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. MAP was quoted at $675-$690/st FOB in the region, with the high in Iowa and the low at St. Louis.
California:
MAP prices reportedly settled to the $750-$755/st FOB or DEL level for the latest offers in California.
Pacific Northwest:
MAP was quoted at $745-$755/st FOB or DEL in the Pacific Northwest in mid-January, up $15/st from December.
Western Canada:
MAP tightened to C$1,080-$1,085/mt FOB or DEL in Western Canada, up from the prior low of C$1,065-$1,070/mt.
China:
Rumors are circulating that China may allow some DAP and MAP cargoes to be exported in March, about one month ahead of schedule. Until then, said sources, the country’s exports are expected to remain completely locked up.
The most likely material to be released in March are DAP and MAP cargoes that have already cleared the customs process, sources said. These tons were already booked and cleared for export before the restrictions took effect. Despite hopes that the cargoes would be permitted to ship after the clampdown was put into place, the tons were not allowed to leave the country.
International traders have stopped speculating as to what the price at China might be if DAP or MAP were available, leaving no price guidance for January or February.
India:
The DAP buying season in India is pretty much over, sources noted. Some blenders have continued to express interest in small cargoes, but only if the price is below the last reported levels. For now, the posted price of $595-$600/mt CFR reflects last-done business and the interests of non-Chinese suppliers, while buyers countering with $500/mt CFR bids are reportedly being rebuffed.
One trader noted that buyers are not expected to become too aggressive in trying to purchase any phosphates until details of India’s 2024/25 budget are revealed. If the government increases subsidies for DAP and expands the price range that sellers are permitted to charge for product, as hoped by importers, India may return to the market to grab as many tons as possible.
However, if the government retains the current limited subsidy support for DAP, buyers will be hard-pressed to import DAP without losing money.
Brazil:
Brazil MAP imports remained stable at $550-$570/mt CFR. While US and Moroccan producers continued to lack availability, Russian producers and a number of retailers were reportedly offering discounts for forward delivery in an effort to boost demand for the 2024/25 harvest.
Despite reports of aggressive bidding, Rondonópolis prices moved higher for the week. Prices jumped $10/mt at the low side of the range, narrowing the market to $690-$695/mt FOB, while limited supply pushed some offers above $700/mt FOB for delivery in the second quarter.
Market demand remains low, sources said. Falling soybean yields, combined with the drop in prices on the Chicago markets, have made it difficult for some growers to plan purchases for the 2024/25 harvest.