US Gulf:
NOLA urea continued to climb, with reports of January trades at the $338-$345/st FOB level and February business concluded in the $337-$345/st FOB range, up from last week’s $325-$335/st FOB for January-February. March business was reportedly done at $347/st FOB early in the trading week.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Urea prices were working their way up in the Eastern Cornbelt, fueled by strengthening NOLA barge values. Sources pegged the regional market at $385-$400/st FOB, up from last week’s $370-$390/st FOB, with the low confirmed at Cincinnati, Ohio. Illinois River terminals were generally reported in the $390-$395/st FOB range during the week.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea firmed to $380-$410/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis, Mo., and the high in Iowa on a spot basis.
Northern Plains:
Sources reported firming prices for urea in late January. The St. Paul, Minn., market was quoted at the $390-$400/st FOB level, up from $385/st FOB at last report. Delivered pricing in North Dakota was up some $10-$20/st, to $430-$450/st for fill and $465-$490/st for prepay.
Great Lakes:
Urea jumped to $420-$425/st FOB and $440/st DEL in Michigan for January-February tons, up from recent quotes in the $385-$410/st FOB range.
Northeast:
The latest urea offers remained at $385-$395/st FOB in the Northeast, with the Fairless Hills, Pa., market pegged solidly at the $390/st FOB level for prompt tons.
Eastern Canada:
The urea market slipped to a broad C$645-$725/mt FOB in Eastern Canada, depending on location, down from prior low of C$680/mt FOB.
India:
There has been no talk of a new tender out of India, and sources have indicated that nothing will happen until mid-February at the earliest. Traders previously said that buying houses in India will want a better idea of how subsidies are treated in the 2024/25 budget before another tender is called.
The interim budget will be released on Feb. 1, according to local media reports. So far, the government appears ready to reduce its allotments for fertilizer subsidies, from roughly Rs2 trillion ($24 billion) in the current budget to Rs1.75 trillion ($21 billion) for the fiscal year starting April 1. The government will finalize the budget following elections in April and May.
Black Sea:
Black Sea urea prices have moved up to $280-$310/mt FOB, in line with reports of stronger prices from North Africa and Southeast Asia. Sources also reported multiple freight inquiries for vessels to move urea from the Black Sea to Romania, Turkey, and Belgium. These are in addition to inquiries related to the Indian tender.
Sources reported granular urea from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan going for $360-$380/mt FOB from western Black Sea ports. Urea coming from Poti is reportedly going for $370/mt FOB.
More prilled urea from Russia may become available after the 400,000 mt committed to cover awards from the Indian tender are shipped, according to circulating reports, as holders of Russian product appear willing to liquidate their positions. Such a move, said one trader, could affect North African prices, which have depended on a stronger European market.
Indonesia:
The limited supply of urea in Southeast Asia has pushed up both prices and pricing expectations. Brunei Fertilizer Ind. (BFI) closed a deal with Koch at $380/mt FOB for a cargo reportedly bound for Australia, a significant increase from a previous sale for late-January shipment priced slightly under $340/mt FOB.
The absence of exports from Indonesia, Malaysia, and China allowed for the higher prices in the BFI deal, sources said. January and February are generally a weak time for exports from Indonesia, as the government typically discourages exports during these months to allow for a plentiful supply in the domestic market. Sources said the government may soon issue export permits for 2024, however. Even if the permits are issued soon, sources believe the first shipments may not occur until March.
Players expect product shortages from Malaysia due to turnarounds at manufacturing facilities. The Bintulu plant is already down and is not expected to return to production until the end of February. The Gurun plant is expected to close on Feb. 1 and stay down into mid-March.
When Indonesia does reenter the market, sources said the $380/mt FOB achieved by BFI could act as a benchmark for Indonesia’s first auction. However, BFI was only able to achieve that price because of the absence of all other major producers in the area, sources argued. The return of Indonesia’s plentiful supply of urea to the market could push prices down.
Middle East:
Reports of last-done business left the price range at $355-$360/mt FOB, though producers argue that level should be in the mid-$370s/mt FOB based on the estimated netback from recent sales into Australia.
Further backing their views are reports that the paper market has firmed to $365-$380/mt FOB for February and $370-$380/mt FOB for March. One trader noted that any current price above $360/mt FOB represents a premium paid for product guaranteed at a specific time, rather than under general market conditions.
Egyptian producers had a good week. After closing the prior week’s business at a high of $375/mt FOB, sellers quickly registered new deals at $380/mt FOB, and at least three producers were able to move prices up a few dollars with each subsequent deal. The latest price, achieved on a sale of 6,000 mt by KIMA for February shipment, was reported at $400/mt FOB as Green Markets went to press on Jan. 26.
| Company | Quantity (mt) | $/mt FOB |
| AlexFert | 6,000 | 387.00 |
| 5,000 | 395.00 | |
| Helwan | 8,000 | 380.00 |
| KIMA | 10,000 | 380.00 |
| Unconfirmed | 390.00 | |
| 6,000 | 400.00 | |
| MOPCO | 6,000 | 384.00 |
| 6,000 | 385.00 |
The week’s sales outstripped expectations in the paper market. February paper was put at $383-$395/mt FOB, while March shipments tracked at $375-$385/mt FOB. The orders placed with Egyptian producers for February were reflected by numerous inquiries made into the freight market, with destinations including Italy, Romania, Djibouti, Turkey, Bulgaria, Portugal, Spain, and Greece.
Reports of additional Russian material becoming available to buyers in southern Europe and Turkey could put pressure on prices from Egypt and other North African suppliers. Some holders of Russian material could offer their product at dramatically lower prices just to clear their inventories, sources said. Buyers in the Western part of the Black Sea, such as Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria, could receive product from Russian ports in the far east of the Black Sea, outside of the current war zone.
China:
Urea exports from China remain nonexistent and are expected to remain so into April, sources said. The lack of opportunities for price discovery left players looking at domestic ex-factory prices as a point of reference for when talks begin late in the first quarter. At the end of the week, rumors circulated that some small urea exports might be allowed in March, one month ahead of the original plan.
Even with the imposition of export restrictions late in 2023, urea exports from China were up in 2023 compared to 2022. Trade Data Monitor reported urea shipments totaling 4.3 million mt for the year, an increase of 40% on the 2.9 million mt exported in 2022. India took 1.9 million mt, followed by South Korea with 416,000 mt.
The December export numbers showed the initial impact of China’s restrictions on urea exports. China sent 562,000 mt and 532,000 mt of urea offshore in December 2021 and 2022, respectively, but shipped just 344,000 mt in December 2023, a 35% decline from one year earlier. India took 316,000 mt for the month.
Brazil:
Urea prices continued to press higher in Brazil, climbing to $365-$375/mt CFR from last week’s $355-$360/mt CFR. Offer levels climbed in step with rising prices reported from originating markets, with new offers noted at $380-$390/mt CFR on Jan. 25.
Pricing also firmed at Rondonópolis, with offers moving up to $510-$535/mt FOB ex-warehouse, though no large sales were reported. Some suppliers pulled their offer lists and were noted adjusting prices through the end of the week.Rural growers were said to remain focused on the 2023/24 soybean crop.