Central Florida:
Central Florida DAP prices increased to $630/st FOB from last week’s $610/st FOB. MAP trucks firmed $15/st, to $655/st FOB from $640/st FOB in the prior report. North Florida MAP postings continued at $640/st FOB.
US Gulf:
NOLA DAP barges softened to $590-$605/st FOB in a week of light trading, off from $600-$615/st FOB at last report, while a first-half March barge was reported trading down to $586/st FOB. MAP barges fell $5/st at the bottom of the range, to $620-$630/st FOB from last week’s $625-$630/st FOB.
US Exports:
DAP and MAP exports from the US Gulf continued at $570/mt FOB for the last reported business.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP was down slightly, to $635-$660/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported out of spot Illinois River terminals. MAP was quoted in the $680-$695/st FOB range in the region, with the low again confirmed in Illinois. The Cincinnati market was quoted solidly at the $650/st FOB level for DAP and $685/st FOB for MAP.
DAP was reported at $635-$650/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis. MAP remained at $675-$690/st FOB in the region, with the high reported in Iowa and the low at St. Louis.
Northern Plains:
Tight supply pushed DAP and MAP prices higher in the Northern Plains, with the latest St. Paul offers pegged at $660/st FOB for DAP and $720/st FOB for MAP, up from the previous $655/st FOB and $710/st FOB levels, respectively.
Great Lakes:
MAP was pegged at a firm $715-$725/st FOB in the Great Lakes region, with limited DAP offers reported at the $675-$685/st FOB level.
Northeast:
The DAP and MAP markets at East Liverpool, Ohio, were up roughly $10/st from last report, with DAP pegged at the $665/st FOB level and MAP at $700/st FOB. No current MAP offers were confirmed at Fairless Hills in late January.
Eastern Canada:
Phosphate prices were steady in Eastern Canada. The latest MAP offers were reported at C$985-$993/mt FOB in the region, with DAP at C$935/mt FOB Montreal.
India:
Buyers pinned hopes for larger DAP subsidies in the 2024/25 budget on how the government will allocate the reduced subsidies proposed under the new budget. The proposal indicated a drop in total subsidies from the current Rs2 trillion ($24 billion) to about Rs1.75 trillion ($21 billion) in the new budget.
The current price of DAP into India remains in the upper-$590s/mt CFR. However, the best price that sellers can expect to get in the country is equivalent to $530-$550/mt CFR. The current subsidy rate does not make up for the losses incurred, said one trader.
Demand is waning for the current season, giving importers the opportunity to lobby the government for more subsidies before the next seasonal buying campaigns begin.
China:
No phosphate exports from China are expected through February. Unlike urea, however, sources said they expect to see some DAP exports in March. So far, said one trader, this expectation amounts to positive thinking, and is based on talks with Chinese traders and producers who have discussed returning to the global market before the end of the first quarter.
DAP exports firmed 40% in 2023, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 5 million mt from the year-ago 3.6 million mt. India accounted for 60% of the exports, taking 3 million mt, while Vietnam received 398,000 mt. DAP shipments totaled 367,000 mt in December, a 45% increase on the 253,000 mt reported in December 2022.
2023 MAP exports held steady year-over-year at 2 million mt. Brazil led buyers with 730,000 mt, followed by Argentina with 243,000 mt and Australia with 224,000 mt.
Brazil:
Landed MAP prices softened to $550-$565/mt CFR in Brazil, falling from $550-$570/mt CFR at last report, while inland deals and NPs were reported closer to $540/mt CFR.
Aggressive new offers at Rondonópolis widened the weekly range to $680-$695/mt FOB, a $10/mt decline from the week-ago $690/mt low. Offers for second-quarter delivery were reported up to $700/mt FOB, though no trades were confirmed at that level.
Demand remains minimal, sources said, and reduced soybean production continues to be anticipated, particularly in the northern areas of Mato Grosso state. Expectations of a weak harvest, combined with low soybean prices on the Chicago exchanges, have complicated purchases for the 2024/25 harvest.