India on Feb. 6 reported that seven ships carrying fertilizer to the country have been rerouted from the Red Sea so far due to disturbances, according to the Press Trust of India. Major shipping companies are warning that the security situation in the Red Sea continues to deteriorate despite efforts by the west to limit attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, according to Bloomberg.
The bosses of A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S and D/S Norden A/S said on Feb. 8 that they felt the threat level was continuing to escalate in the region. It comes after Japanese shipping giant Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. (MOL) said the disruption on the route could last for a year.
Swaths of the merchant fleet have been avoiding the waterway since attacks by the Houthis began in mid-November. The area grew even more volatile after the US and UK launched airstrikes last month, prompting major owners in all sectors to avoid the region.
“We’ve not seen the level of threat peak, to the contrary,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “The amount or the range of weapons that are being used for these attacks is expanding and there is no clear line of sight to when and how the international community will be able to mobilize itself and guarantee safe passage for us.”
The shipping companies’ perceptions of risk matter because they will dictate when vessels return to the region. All of the owners said they will continue to reroute ships until it is safe to travel the Red Sea.
In addition to the airstrikes launched by the US and UK, there is also a defensive force operating in the Red Sea known as Operation Prosperity Guardian. Military ships in the region have been attempting to thwart missile strikes on merchant vessels over the past few weeks, but the Houthis have continued their attacks. There has also been a parallel uptick in Somali piracy.
Norden CEO Jan Rinbo said there needs to be signs of a period of stability with no further attacks before shipping companies will think about returning. “You need to have a de-escalating situation, and we are not at that point yet,” he said. “If anything, it just seems to escalate.”
Clerc said Maersk will continue to reroute its ships around Africa for several more weeks and has previously said the company would need to be “absolutely certain” the waterway was safe before sailing there again. MOL said its diversions will continue for at least the next two to three months, while Norden said it doesn’t expect an imminent resolution.
At the same time, dry weather has forced the Panama Canal – one of the world’s other vital maritime chokepoints – to reduce traffic due to low water levels, also forcing a large number of ship diversions.
“That really is unprecedented,” Norden’s Rindbo said. “I’ve not in my 29 years in shipping seen anything like this.”