US Gulf:
NOLA urea edged up to a high of $398-$400/st FOB for prompt loaded barges and first-half March trades, with full-March business reported in the $375-$395/st FOB range, above the prior week’s broad $363-$398/st FOB for prompt and March barges.
Sources reported a drop for April, however, with first-half April business confirmed at $367-$379/st FOB and full April down to a reported low of $350-$355/st FOB.
Eastern Cornbelt:
Strengthening NOLA barge prices pushed the urea market up in the Eastern Cornbelt. The latest offers were quoted at $455-$465/st FOB in the region, up from $420-$450/st FOB last week, with the low confirmed at Illinois River terminals and the high in Indiana and Ohio. The Cincinnati, Ohio, urea market was pegged at $455-$460/st FOB, up $10-$15/st.
Western Cornbelt:
Urea prices continued to climb in the wake of firming NOLA barge values. Sources quoted the Western Cornbelt market at $440-$470/st FOB, up from last week’s $420-$450/st, with the high confirmed in Iowa. The St. Louis, Mo., urea market jumped to $440-$460/st FOB during the week, while Port Neal, Iowa, was reportedly on allocation.
In the southern US, urea pricing at Catoosa/Inola, Okla., reportedly jumped to $480-$510/st FOB, up sharply from last week’s $440-$470/st, while the latest Convent, La., offers were quoted at $425-$430/st FOB, up from $420/st FOB last week.
Great Lakes:
Michigan sources quoted the latest urea offers at $465-$490/st FOB and up to $490-$505/st DEL, well above the prior week’s $445-$480/st FOB and $445-$465/st DEL ranges.
Northern Plains:
Urea jumped to $470-$480/st FOB St. Paul, Minn., and $540-$560/st DEL in the Northern Plains, up from the previous $450-$470/st FOB and $500-$540/st DEL ranges.
Northeast:
The latest urea offers climbed to $430-$465/st FOB in the Northeast, with the low reported at Fairless Hills, Pa., and the high at East Liverpool, Ohio. The Baltimore, Md., urea market was pegged at $435-$445/st FOB during the week, up from $420/st FOB in mid-February.
Eastern Canada:
The latest urea offers in Eastern Canada moved to C$700-$725/mt FOB in early March, up from the prior low of C$680/mt FOB.
Black Sea:
Turkish buyers IGSAS and BAGFAS purchased a combined order of Iranian material, sources reported. Details on the price are sketchy, but traders noted $400-$420/mt CFR as the most likely range for the deal.
Mediterranean:
This week’s granular urea market was described as even slower than last week, with importers sitting on comfortable stocks and poor weather slowing demand. Both Spain and Italy reported no import activity for fresh cargos, with offers now slipping to $405-$410/mt CFR and seeing no traction.
In neighboring Turkey, Egyptian material was offered at $420/mt CFR, but no business was concluded. Based on the new indications, the regional market slipped to $405-$420/mt CFR.
India:
Sources continue to expect a new tender call on March 15-20. The shipping period for the tender is likely to run into the second week of May, which could allow for a Chinese cargo or two to be included in the offers.
As previously reported, India’s budget allotment for fertilizer subsidies is expected to shift lower in the coming fiscal year. The budget slated to take effect on April 1 will be provisional, one trader noted, and will be valid only through the end of September. A permanent budget will be enacted after the upcoming election.
The Indian government has been looking for ways to reduce its dependence on imported urea and cut its expenditures on urea subsidies. The government has provided favorable gas rates for urea producers to step up production and open new plants or refurbish older ones. At the same time, the government continues to push for the use of liquid Nano Urea instead of imported product.
2023 urea imports softened 15% year-over-year, Trade Data Monitor reported, to 8.6 million mt from 10.1 million mt. China sent 2.4 million mt, Oman added 2.2 million mt, and Russia shipped 1.4 million mt. India purchased a combined 3.6 million mt of urea from Arab Gulf countries in 2023, the data indicated.
December imports stood at 1.8 million mt, up 8% from the 1.7 million mt received in December 2022. Fourth-quarter imports totaled 4.3 million mt, roughly half of India’s 2023 urea import total and a sizable increase from October-December 2022.
Indonesia:
No new granular business was reported from Indonesia, leaving the price at the $386/mt FOB level achieved in late February on a Pupuk Kaltim tender. New prilled business suggested prices might be softening, however.
A tender for prilled urea closed late last week at $372/mt FOB, sources reported. Given the usual $5-$10/mt difference between prilled and granular urea, the recent Kaltim granular price would fit with the new tender results. However, Gresik closed a deal earlier this week for prilled product at $355/mt FOB, suggesting a granular price in the $360s/mt FOB.
In the broader Southeast Asia market, no updates on Petronas’ Bintulu and Gurun units were heard from Malaysia, with both plants still down and no fresh business confirmed ex-Brunei.
As expected, Indonesia exported zero mt of urea in January, Trade Data Monitor reported, just as it did in January 2023. In an effort to focus producers’ attentions toward satisfying domestic demand, the Indonesian government withheld export permits during the early part of the year, resulting in the lack of January exports.
Middle East:
Arab Gulf producers remained quiet during the week as they filled contract orders for long-term customers. No new spot deals were reported, leaving the price in the upper-$370s/mt FOB. No new deals were reported out of Egypt as well, leaving the granular price at $406/mt FOB.
Reports that Ethiopia has awarded just two cargoes in its most recent tender could free up more product to ship from the Arab Gulf. In addition to failing to secure what could have been a multi-cargo set of awards from Ethiopia, Arab Gulf producers may now be shut out of Ethiopia completely. The East African country has become more reliant on Egyptian material than product from the Arab Gulf, leaving AG producers to look for other buyers.
Ethiopia:
Ethiopia imported 196,000 mt of urea in the first two months of 2024, according to Trade Data Monitor,almost double the amount received during the same period of 2023. Egyptian product dominated the lineup with 152,000 mt, for 78% of the imports, while Nigeria sent 44,000 mt. February imports were 95,000 mt, up 89% from 50,000 mt in February 2023.
China:
The Chinese government has reportedly clarified the timetable and procedure for exporting urea through April 2025. All urea and phosphate exports will now be required to complete the CIQ process at either the factory or a factory warehouse.
The new policy will ban the issuance of export permits at ports and regional independent warehouses or distribution centers. The tonnage already delivered to the ports and awaiting final export approval will be exempt from the new policy, sources said.
Sources anticipate the inspections necessary to obtain an export license to begin on April 15, with the first lot of urea permitted to ship during the first week of May. However, few seem willing to take the risk of booking a vessel until the export permits have been issued, market watchers said. Though the new plan appears to guarantee the clearing process will take no more than 10 working days to complete, sources were concerned that some inspectors could drag out the process.
Another concern for international buyers is the size of cargoes allowed to export after shipping resumes. The first sales will likely be small, container-sized lots to regional Asian buyers, sources noted. There has even been talk that permits for larger cargos, suitable for buyers such as India or Brazil, might be slower in processing. If some larger cargoes are allowed in the first batch of exports, however, sources said they might include potential material for the pending Indian tender.
The estimated price of exported urea has softened due to falling ex-plant prices. Even though no new export deals can currently be made, sources estimated prices around $345-$350/mt FOB for prilled urea.
Brazil:
Brazil urea prices edged up to $395/mt CFR from last week’s $394-$395/mt CFR range. Limited volumes were offered at $395-$400/mt CFR against $375/mt CFR bids, players noted.
Rondonópolis prices were unchanged in the $500-$520/mt FOB ex-warehouse range, as limited prompt urea interest was reported only for last-minute corn safrinha demand. As corn sowing has already advanced significantly in the region, few suppliers are willing to participate in new urea business due to tight delivery windows and unfavorable payment terms. Given the bearish outlook for corn prices, barter trading is even riskier.