Central Florida:
Central Florida phosphates price held steady, with DAP transacting at $630/st FOB and MAP trucks priced at $655/st FOB, both unchanged from last week. North Florida MAP postings continued at $650/st FOB.
US Gulf:
Trading activity picked up on the NOLA DAP barge market. DAP barges changed hands in a wide $600-$690/st FOB range, up 10.5% from last week’s $605-$620/st FOB, with loaded and prompt barges fetching a sizeable premium.
MAP trading was muted due to limited availability, however. Sources quoted prices in the $640-$650/st FOB range, rising from last week’s $625/st FOB.
US Exports:
DAP and MAP exports from the US Gulf remained at $570/mt FOB for the last reported deals.
Eastern Cornbelt:
DAP and MAP were edging higher on tight supply and firming NOLA barge values. DAP prices moved to $675-$685/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, up from the prior $660-$670/st FOB range, with both the high and low reported at Cincinnati and out of Illinois River terminals for March-June shipment.
MAP remained at $685-$690/st FOB in the Eastern Cornbelt, with the low reported on the Illinois River. The Cincinnati market was pegged at $685-$690/st FOB for the latest offers.
Western Cornbelt:
DAP and MAP prices in the Western Cornbelt moved higher on limited availability. DAP pricing firmed to $680-$690/st FOB in the region, up sharply from the prior week’s $650-$660/st FOB, with both the high and low reported at St. Louis for very limited volumes.
MAP was quoted at $675-$690/st FOB in the Western Cornbelt, with the low confirmed at St. Louis for April availability.
Great Lakes:
The latest MAP offers were pegged at $725-$735/st FOB and $735/st DEL in Michigan in early March.
Northern Plains:
DAP and MAP offers at St. Paul in early March firmed to $680-$690/st FOB and $715-$720/st FOB, respectively.
Northeast:
The DAP and MAP markets at East Liverpool strengthened to $695/st FOB and $705/st FOB, respectively, with DAP moving up a full $30/st from last report. Delivered MAP was quoted at the $730/st level in Pennsylvania, reflecting a $15/st increase.
Eastern Canada:
The latest MAP offers in Eastern Canada were reported at C$993-$995/mt FOB, while DAP pricing firmed to C$955/mt FOB Montreal, up C$20/mt from last report.
Morocco:
OCP’s European DAP sales continue to yield netbacks in the $595-$615/mt FOB range. With no updates on non-European sales, however, the low end of the range remains unchanged. Previous reports of stormy weather causing Jorf closures appear to have been resolved.
Benelux:
DAP prices in Benelux once again firmed slightly on seasonal demand and tight supply. Moroccan material offered at €595/mt FCA reflected the low end of the range, with the high end of €620/mt FCA achieved on some truckload business, resulting in a range of $645-$670/mt FCA at midweek exchange rates.
Firmer sentiment is still seen at Rouen, where offers were heard up to €20/mt higher than in Benelux. Conversely, Baltic DAP prices have been revised $5/mt FOB higher at the upper end of the range, reflecting the uptick in Northwest Europe.
China:
The Chinese government has modified and clarified its earlier announcement that it would once again allow the exportation of phosphates and urea, sources reported. The quotas for export through April 2025 were lifted to 5 million mt for DAP and 2 million mt for MAP, up from 4.4 million mt and 2.2 million mt, respectively.
Still up in the air are the export allotments for individual production facilities. Sources said the large plants with easier access to export facilities will most likely take the bulk of the allotments, leaving the others to only service the domestic market.
Sources currently expect the export certification process DAP and MAP to begin in mid-March, with the first lots set for loading in early April. The tonnage already located at the ports will be inspected and certified for export in situ, as was done in the past, said one trader. New orders, however, will have to be cleared for export either at the factory gate or at a factory warehouse. No tonnage sent to regional distribution centers will be considered for export.
Some traders are beginning to talk about a $560-$570/mt FOB price for the first cargoes, sources said, though others pegged the more likely price in the $580s/mt FOB. Sources pointed to reported DAP talks between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan centering on the low-$620s/mt FOB. In calculating a China-equivalent price, sources estimated the netback to China as closer to $580-$590/mt FOB, and possibly higher.
India:
No new DAP deals were reported in India, leaving the price at $595/mt CFR. New business may show a higher price in the near future, however. Reports that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are discussing DAP business in the low-$620s/mt CFR could see buyers in India facing prices in the $600-$610/mt CFR range, sources said.
DAP imports to India totaled 6.4 million mt in 2023, Trade Data Monitor reported, off 5% from the year-ago 6.8 million mt. Sources said the drop came as buyers pulled back from the market due to rising prices, and as domestic DAP producers stepped up output. Nearly 70% of the year’s imports came from China and Saudi Arabia, sending 2.5 million mt and 1.8 million mt, respectively.
December imports were reported at 1.7 million mt, down 33% from the 2.5 million mt received in December 2022.
Brazil:
Landed MAP prices gained $5/mt, to settle at $565-$570/mt CFR. Inland deals were reported both above and below that level, however.
International players are awaiting news on DAP and MAP production rates at China. While a lack of MAP or MAP 10-50 production could put downward pressure on prices, DAP production targeting sales into Asian markets would be more attractive to Chinese producers in the current market.
MAP pricing at Rondonópolis continued in a wide range. The most competitive offers were reported at $670-$675/mt FOB ex-warehouse, while offers from producers continued at $700/mt FOB or above. Sources reported minimal liquidity for new trades throughout the week due to low affordability, leading buyers to consider TSP or SSP for their needs.